Idio Cap

Fundamental equity. Factor neut so i can focus on the imp things

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

Positioning has prob been the most important factor for 6mo+ now. Other side of almost every trade is just another L/S shop. MDB was cons long, NOW cons short, SNOW cons short, WDAY cons short, etc. I think COUP has far too many shorts & people on sidelines, w/ inc ~okay num’s

[Howe Wang @WangUWS]

Data point here @OpenRouter says open-source models went from 18% of AI usage in fall 2025 to 40% by spring 2026.

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

@dylan522p @yitong @AnthropicAI Orange user looks maintained. What’re they cookin? 🥘

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

@Mike_Taylor1972 ..AS IF they’re even remotely equipped to protect and defend against this completely new attack vector. They’re going to try, sure, but this is why public enterprise security has a changing of the guards every ~10 or so years.

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

@Mike_Taylor1972 ..AS IF they’re even remotely equipped to protect and defend against this completely new attack vector. They’re going to try, sure, but this is why security has a changing of the guards every ~10 or so years.

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

@ChairliftCap This is likely still the case but i bet there’s some selection bias going on here. Smaller funds are swinging for the fences more often, and so you’re naturally going to have a percentile who do hit the fence in any given year. Tying those years together is the harder part

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

@AswathDamodaran March delivery eta…. zzz so far

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

@MultiMismanaged @HighyieldHarry This

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

@buccocapital Astute observation…

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

Wonder where timely power (sub-4yrs) and EPC/labor sits in the bottleneck-hierarchy right now…
Surprised to still hear you say capital despite all the setup we’ve seen from pvt credit… We haven’t even seen any meaningful debt financing from the hyperscalers themselves yet… (although maybe that’s going to be a measure of last resort)

Throwback to this thing from MS credit team while back

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

Agree w/ the thread, but want to poke at the one comment on the networks being commoditized today… I regularly see them source or inform an edge across several industries and sectors on the quarter-setup/quarter itself (rarely both) and/or the long-term. And they’re even more valuable when things are changing fast. So many people still try to use them the old way which I think is what you are referring to: bean counting, trying to quantify as much of the demand picture as possible, with less emphasis on the why + trying to understand all the moving parts.
I also think they get a bad wrap bc of how much low qual noise there is out there; half the battle is figuring out what to throw out/disregard (bc it is often not obvious at all)

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

@buccocapital Poor Bill on this one... this one makes me wince.

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

Totally agree, if the SM structure is indeed to make a comeback, but I'm not so sure it'll ever be able to if it's driven by former pod all-stars... The infra the platforms have built, the risk team/talent, the risk models, is such a stretch for a SM launch. Talent alone so hard. The economics would have to change but then as an allocator you're investing in the investing talent as well as some degree of execution risk that they can build the tools of their former shop. I just don't see how...

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

@pmje73 @patrick_oshag @tseides Which responses have changed? I reference my notes from those pods you did every once in a while, as a lot of it (but not all) jived.

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

@anothercohen @scuttleblurb Don’t forget

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

And you can add anything from $5B-25B per week from systematic buying if realized vol stays where it’s been past few weeks (around 10). Even if it goes up ~15% it’s like $17B per week. And let’s not forget retail buying/demand is back en force, which started drying up in mid-March from $40B/week, to bottoming ~$5B/week of net demand in mid-April (tax day).

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

Agree, but let’s be clear here, many of the Viking spins so far have been significantly self-funded. Viking pays so well that PM only really leave when they’ve made so much money that they decide they want to have their names on the door…

Also their supposed proven “risk management” has seen degrading alpha for a little over a decade now.

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

@TBU12345678 @PythiaR If you’re short or close enough to it, would be great to DM/discuss views on how thinking orders could play out next few quarters

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

But let’s not forget, the multiple has pretty much seen a persistent discount since they’ve been public bc of their operational & execution issues. Particularly weighed on the mult in ‘22 when the industry supply-chain issues made it clear how bad their processes & controls really were (basic sht lik embedding updated mkt px’ing signals into contract terms vs pricing based on the mkt 6mo ago)… This what Gio has been turning around since ‘23 — I’d argue incredibly successfully (see recent mgn expan)… Mgns used to be like 1/3 of peers when there was no structural justification for it. And he’s saying he expects it to be mid-20’s soon.

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

@TBU12345678 @losaturnalia @kellangrenier So true lmao

[Idio Cap @IdioCapital]

Broadly agree except for Callahan…

Tom was def deserving top spot until like ~2019 when he started to balance a bit better quality of life (understandably)… He used to do so much more on positioning, detailed model expectations, and his AM email ALWAYS hit at like 730 (not the 10am we sometimes get these days (again, no shade. I don’t wake up at 330 like he had to for this either)

Miss petricone and Gabby brown. Think it’s just a really tough gig: feel like most shops have historically just not given commensurate pay for the time commitment it takes to actually be value add for us in these roles (although maybe this is more unique to UBS who let their talent go).

Your honorable mention should’ve been DIFFLEY