Draft Horse Insights

Social media reports for politicians and public figures

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

Operation SAFE, @GovStitt's effort to cleanup homeless encampments, earned 25% of his August X engagement on just 8% of posts. Check out the rest of our monthly X snapshot for the Governor below:

@bellebull_ @TevisHillisTV @abegailcave

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

Let's zoom in on @RonDeSantis "Florida News" post theme from his weekly X snapshot. Engagement trended up despite lower volume as higher education wins (75% of FL residents not needing student loans, 85% of courses ideologically balanced) and dunks on the FL House GOP (Blocking DTC Ivermectin, "view last 7 years as problem") were well received.

@CaseyDeSantis @ChristinaPushaw @MsMollyBest

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

Did @RonDeSantis foray into the data center debate land on X? Our 8/16-8/22 Weekly X Snapshot helps shed some light on that...

DeSantis' volume, impression, and engagement metrics were down week over week. Those numbers don't matter in of themselves, but understanding what they're telling you about a given social audience does.

With 20k+ engaged posts falling from 19% in the prior week to just 7%, DeSantis' "batting average" with the X zeitgeist was certainly down. There were plenty of bright spots though, especially the "DeSantis Legacy" post theme, which saw several high performing posts around FL's anti-marxism efforts, speedy and orderly elections vis a vis California, and a COVID track record that remains relevant and more vindicated by the day.

While his foray into the Data Center debate didn't swing above its weight for engagement, it drove 10% of viewership from just 7% of posts, a sign that DeSantis' message is getting attention and that he's "over the target" on that topic.

@CaseyDeSantis @ChristinaPushaw @MsMollyBest

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

The polling on data centers has been a disaster recently, even if proponents think detractors are misguided, I’m not sure that qualifies as “astroturfed.” Personally I agree with DeSantis’ assessment that it has more to do with general distrust toward big tech (keep in mind Rs just dealt with a decade+ of censorship and coercion, then big tech did an about face and pissed off dems by kissing up to Trump. So I think it’s plausible they genuinely don’t have much public support)

We haven’t focused much on audience profiles, that would be useful on the paid media/conversion side of things, but I’m not sure how we’d suss that out for public post engagement.

Our reports are geared toward “brand marketing” — helping politicians understand how their message is landing with the overall audience on social platforms over time.

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

Did @RonDeSantis foray into the data center debate land on X? Our 8/16-8/22 Weekly X Snapshot helps shed some light on that...

DeSantis' volume, impression, and engagement metrics were down week over week. Those numbers don't matter in of themselves, but understanding what they're telling you about a given social audience does.

With 20k+ engaged posts falling from 19% in the prior week to just 7%, DeSantis' "batting average" with the X zeitgeist was certainly down. There were plenty of bright spots though, especially the "DeSantis Legacy" post theme, which saw several high performing posts around FL's anti-marxism efforts, speedy and orderly elections vis a vis California, and a COVID track record that remains relevant and more vindicated by the day.

While his foray into the Data Center debate didn't swing above its weight for engagement, it drove 10% of viewership from just 7% of posts, a sign that DeSantis' message is getting attention and that he's "over the target" on that topic.

@CaseyDeSantis @ChristinaPushaw @MsMollyBest

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

Data centers - DeSantis focusing on "people across the political spectrum's opposition to big tech titans expanding tech power over citizenry." Differentiated versus most in the debate focusing on economics, resource use, "luddites," "china," etc.

Actual human engagement - Grok: "Public tools do not give a clean US-vs-foreign split on likes, replies, or views for DeSantis’s August posts, so any estimate is inferential rather than precise."

The way I look at authentic engagement/astroturfing is that 1) a certain % of engagement across social platforms is inauthentic, but it's relatively steady over time and thus any spikes in engagement are typically a real signal and 2) there are some issues that feel "astroturfed," i.e. what you're seeing on a given platform may not reflect the real-world mood on an issue.

Whether an issue is astroturfed is ultimately a judgement call for campaign staff, reporting can show how an audience is reacting on a given social platform, but they have to decide how to interpret that in the context of other media channels, polling, etc.

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

Here's @tatereeves Weekly FB Snapshot for 8/9-8/15. New USV tech in MS was the top "manufacturing" win for his audience in this period, and the MS education turnaround continues to outperform for engagement. While it outperformed the prior week, the $205M Rural Healthcare partnership with Trump/RFK/Oz wasn't mentioned this week and fell out of the zeitgeist.

@coryjcuster

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

Here's @berniemoreno's Bi-weekly X Snapshot for 8/2-8/15.

US Auto Manufacturing/Chinese Predators was a key focus for the period, but didn't quite "break through" at just 8% engagement from 33% of posts. On the other hand, Moreno's remarks on the new Colombian president, Voter ID, and the Clarity act swung above their share of posts.

The Senator's presence in the overall X zeitgeist moved from Fauci exchanges in the prior period (69k eng across 2 video clips from the hearing, down to just 5k across 2 Fauci posts this period) to his Daughter's divorce (5.1M of 6.4M impressions this period).

@philipletsou

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

Here’s @DanSullivan_AK’s bi-weekly FB Snapshot for 7/12-7/25. Aside from “fake Dan,” not much breaking through on his campaign account yet.

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

Here's @CoachForGov's June 2026 X Snapshot. Like we've seen across politicians, connecting critiques to "hot button" current events is one of the best ways to break through to larger audiences.

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

Here's a Weekly Facebook Snapshot for @SenCapito for the week of 7/19-7/25.

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

Updated JD Vance Q2 X snapshot:

@JDVance @wsmartin218 @Luke__Schroeder @taylorvankirk @charlottew006

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

Here's @JDVance X Snapshot for Q2 2026. A few interesting trends stood out:

-3 straight quarters of engagement decline since Q3 2025.
-Fraud posts haven't "broken through" yet. Over 50% of Q2 posts were related to fraud, but they drove just 39% of engagement.
-2 of the quarter's top 3 engaged posts featured Usha. Trend of JD's family and "personal story" driving outsized engagement has continued since Jan '25.
-The decline of western civilization in Europe is "nailing the zeitgeist" more than conflict in the Middle East. Vance's Henry Nowak commentary was far and away his top engaged post of the quarter, driving >2X engagement of any Iran war related post.

@wsmartin218 @Luke__Schroeder @taylorvankirk @charlottew006

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

We've refreshed our X Snapshot for @feelsdesperate's 2H June report, let's hope it helps him get engagement trending back in the right direction.

Post volume and engagement fell 28% each, but impressions "holding on" and median engagement growing is positive.

The lack of "home runs" (for Coddled we'd dub a post >10k engagements) was a big part of his decline from 294k engagements in May (5 home runs) to 188k in June (only 1). "Home runs" are all about "taking the right swings," keep matching posts to the zeitgeist and they will come.

On that note, NYC/DSA critiques swung above their weight in 2H June, driving 23% of the period's engagement from 16% of its posts (1.4x). So did critiques of the Obamas (8% engagement vs 5% posts). Keep "taking swings" there and consider adding back in more Talarico/Platner which have done well in recent periods.

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

Let's take a break from politicians and look at the X performance of some popular commentators, starting with @feelsdesperate

Here's his bi-weekly X snapshot for the 2nd Half of May.

Post volume was steady, while impressions climbed 55% thanks to a select few retweets from prominent accounts (one of several ways it's possible to drive impression growth even during periods where engagement lags).

Talarico broke out as a critique target, driving an impressive 14% of engagement from just 5% of the bi-weekly period's 92 posts. Mocking Mamdani's "new levels performative narcissism" was a home run, but posts focused on Talarico had higher median engagement.

Perhaps Coddled's Talarico critiques are landing more than his Platner or LA Mayoral Race commentary because Talarico is such a perfect embodiment of the "coddled affluent professional" that CAP's account exists to mock.

Speaking of that LA mayoral race, just 1 post related to it broke 1K engagements: focusing on how Pratt respected homeless people enough to consider them human beings with agency.

Commentary focused on self reflection did well, outperforming all non-Zohran/Talarico critiques. Coddled reflecting on how "every instinct he had in 2015 ended up being wrong" and how travel simply isn't impressive or difficult enough to be worth "delaying real life" landed with audiences.

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

Here's @feelsdesperate X snapshot for the 1st Half of June. Note that metrics and takeaways are for "posts" and don't include "replies."

While volume was up, impressions (-43%) and engagement (-22%) fell. Some of that was outside CAP's control (eg retweets from larger accounts affect impressions), but the engagement decline suggests he could have done a better job "nailing the zeitgeist" with post themes.

Last period, Zohran and Talarico critiques drove over twice the share of engagement as their share of posts. In contrast, this period's main critique subjects (Platner, Alice from Queens, and Obama) drove 0.8x to 1.3x.

Platner critiques centered around VA disability fraud and his 'fake working class' persona landed, but for whatever reason his Nazi tattoo/dirtbag character landed less.

Try to find a more compelling 'foil' than Alice from Queens.

Irreverent Humor ('X is the everything app,' 'I miss Will Stancil,' 'Katz is becoming one of my favorite dems') did great, dial that up.

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

New: @NassauExec Q1 FB report on our homepage and About section on our website with a quick line on what each of our slides does.

https://t.co/Q0LyMc098J

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

@RonDeSantis Q1 2026 X Report Presentation

@JasonWeidaFL @BrockJuarez @AlexLanfran @MsMollyBest @tarynfenske @ChristinaPushaw @JeremyRedfernFL @coreyadamyk @kmclaughlins @Ave_Phillips

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

@RonDeSantis Q1 2026 X Report Presentation

@JasonWeidaFL @BrockJuarez @AlexLanfran @MsMollyBest @tarynfenske @ChristinaPushaw @JeremyRedfernFL @coreyadamyk @kmclaughlins @Ave_Phillips

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

(10/10) 3 Key Things for @RonDeSantis Q1 X report

1. Post volume declines (-48%) were the primary cause of DeSantis' substantial engagement decline from 8.8M in Q4 '25 to 3.1M in Q1 '26. Median engagement was down just 19% in contrast, suggesting a simple volume increase could recapture most of that engagement.

2. COVID's legacy = widespread breakup with unliked bureaucracies. The popularity of DeSantis' anti-TSA post, anti-CBDC posts, and anti-Car Kill Switch posts all came back to this. DeSantis has had success with related posts (especially around Europe) for 1+ year, and he is probably seen as the most effective leader fighting these types of bureaucracies.

3. Left's new stars are becoming the best "Florida Foils." Using foils to contrast Florida's success with leftist failures has consistently driven more engagement than successes alone, and "rising stars" like Zohran, Talarico, Minnesota's viral fraud and criminal policy failure, Mikie Sherrill, etc, are driving tons of engagement when featured in posts.

@AlexLanfran @tarynfenske @ChristinaPushaw @JeremyRedfernFL @coreyadamyk @kmclaughlins @Ave_Phillips

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

(1/10) Overview: DeSantis Q1 2026 X Report

DeSantis had substantial declines in post volume and engagement in Q1 compared to the prior quarter. Median post engagement was also down to a lesser degree.

Orwellian control was a big issue, with "car kill switches," CBDCs, and the TSA farce all striking a chord. Despite claims by popular commentators that "woke is dead," the resonance of DeSantis' remarks on celebrity "stolen land" claims and Zohran's socialism suggested otherwise. The left's duplicity on immigration policy landed with audiences, embodied by Boston's Michelle Wu and New Jersey's Mikie Sherrill.

@RonDeSantis @GovRonDeSantis @brockjuarez @AlexLanfran @tarynfenske @BryanDGriffin @ChristinaPushaw @JeremyRedfernFL @BWWright5 @coreyadamyk @kmclaughlins @Ave_Phillips @SDeanFL

[Draft Horse Insights @InsightsDraft]

(9/10) DeSantis' Q1 26 Comment Sentiment on X

Top engaged comments were around the same themes as DeSantis' top engaged posts: 1) Critiquing Orwellian policies and those in Congress implementing them, 2) Contrasting "Florida Foils" with the most popular leftists in the US (especially new stars like Mamdani, Talarico), 3) Still pervasive leftist ideology like "Stolen Land," and 4) Leftist mayors and governors duplicity on immigration.

The amount of pushback on Mamdani and Talarico critiques suggests DeSantis is "over the target."

@AlexLanfran
@tarynfenske
@ChristinaPushaw
@JeremyRedfernFL
@coreyadamyk
@kmclaughlins
@Ave_Phillips