Started the first quarter down more than 5% ๐
I made a lot of bad decisions that left me with some tough choices. I had to cut losses, sharpen my pencil, and put in a lot of hard work and mental effort to dig myself out โ๏ธ
The most profitable trade was admitting I was wrong ๐ข
There is a lot of deserved hype for how great OpenAI's Jalapeno ASIC and system will be. However, there is one major flaw that no one is talking about at all... (1/6)๐งต
My Samsung preferred thesis in a nutshell:
๐ข Large discount to common shares
๐ข Re-rating catalysts via significant capital returns
๐ข Below 2027 year end book value
๐ข Lots of upside optionality
๐ข The main bear case dismissed: โMemory is cyclical. Samsung should trade on P/B, not P/E.โ Even if you value Samsung on P/B, the preferreds still look like an easy win.
For the thesis to fail, you essentially need the memory cycle to end before 2027. Given current sector reads, that looks extremely unlikely.
$005935 $SMSD $005930 $SMSN $EWY $DRAM $MU $SOXX $SMH
Hope you guys find value in this article. I was able to extract a lot of great value from some folks on this platform and this feels like the first time I am able to give back. https://t.co/xHsXDjXGel
Hope you guys find value in this article. I was able to extract a lot of great value from some folks on this platform and this feels like the first time I am able to give back. https://t.co/xHsXDjXGel
I have leeched off of some great folks on FinTwit for quite a while without giving anything back.
In a couple days I will be posting a write-up on what I believe is the most asymmetric opportunity I have seen since I started trading. A near bullet proof thesis with essentially no room for prolonged downside. A classic โheads I win big, tails I lose nothing situationโ.
I think that the thesis will turn even the most bearish folks into bulls, as the mixture of capital returns, quality, and valuation through various scenarios are very defensible.
$TOYO looks asymmetric. High level thoughts:
๐ข Trades at < tangible book value and LSD P/E.
๐ข Potential government credit upside (management and third party representation believes they are eligible).
๐ด Potential circumventing in primary Ethopia facility but US operations ramping offsets the economic risk.
The company looks pretty nasty, but largely seems priced in. I imagine this trade is a โheads I win big, tails I lose nothingโ situation.
President Trump and Republicans are proving once again that America First means Texas First, lower taxes, a sealed border, safer communities, and jobs that stay in the United States. ๐ฅ๐บ๐ธ
@ScarcityTrade Doing like 20% of daily volume itโs huge. No doubt they will sell more ADR in future and continue buying back cheaper.
Also think Samsung Prefs a no brainer with future juicy divvys and buybacks. Massive discount with only loss being voting rights, how can a man lose?
Everyone hating on Jonah but heโs been doing pretty well recently and gives reasonable takes. The real contras are the ones everyone respects on this platform.