jack

comp sci/math.
former SF, thesis investor.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@enzoythefuture I really think this is destined to 4x near term

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@retard3dinvst0r $AAOI welcomes you back with open arms (at the exact same level you left it at bc ATM go brr)

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@FindleysFinance If you want the safest bet and you’re full porting an individual stock, some sort of power-adjacent stock over the next 10 years will do you very well.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@IndexAndForget Yes & no.

It can get boring unless your circle is at a similar stage in their life.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@drayinvests Good business, good upside here. Feels much lower risk than some other power names and the returns will reflect that.

Likely will well outperform the market despite this.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@neppy It's like an echo chamber of my own thoughts

[jack @InvertedWingr]

As i live in Australia, 80% of people who invest their money never place it into the stock market, even rarer again to make it into the US markets.

Almost everyone funnels their money into property & real estate. Whether that be through an investment property, renovations in their own home, mum & dad developers doing builds or people who make entire livings out of buying land subdivision sites.

This is the game here, or at least it was. This year has been the sharpest decline in property prices this country has seen in a long time and the stats are not reflecting it yet.

We are about to see a lot of very leveraged up 'genius investors' who've ridden a leveraged bull run like never before seen get unwound very quickly.

The R:R is not worth buying anything even after a circa 20% drop.

#auspol

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@LovedropV @Artemi3535 Up & to the right please

[jack @InvertedWingr]

$NUAI

In my honest opinion, is the best asymmetric setup in the entire AI infrasphere.

I have been building position since July & am continuing to add.

long, nfa.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@CryptoJesus8888 Once management provably delivers on first round of revenue and power supply the market will rerate accordingly. Most of the risk is in execution.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@CryptoJesus8888 Definitely doable. They have the structure and team in place to do it. Time horizon will be the determining factor imo.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@warfield_pls I have a deeper long form dive i am working on for $NUAI i will finish shortly.

In short, the newly acquired management team is very good, vistra 20year deal, land optionality, pre rev valuations give a lot of asymmetrical upside. I will publish the long form soon.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

Invest in businesses and sectors you genuinely care for and holding longterm becomes easy.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@OInvests Fair, think this sets up a good week for all AI benefactors tbh.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

asymmetric investing, explained simply

you'll see me use this word a lot. here's what it actually means

it's not "high risk, high reward." that's just a risky bet

asymmetric means the potential upside is much bigger than the potential downside, on the same trade

example: I put $1,000 into a stock

-> if I'm wrong: I lose $1,000. that's the max. it's capped
-> if I'm right: the stock does 4x, 5x, sometimes more. that's not capped
same $1,000 risked. very different ceiling above it vs floor below it

that's the whole game. you don't need to be right more than you're wrong. you need your wins to pay for your losses many times over

3 wrong bets losing 100% each = -$3,000
1 right bet doing 5x = +$4,000

net positive, even losing 75% of the time

why does this actually exist in a stock. it's not magic, it's mispricing.
usually because:
-> the company is small and nobody's covering it yet
-> the market is pricing today's numbers, not where it's headed
-> a real catalyst hasn't happened yet, so the "proof" isn't priced in

that's why I chase small caps with secured contracts trading below what those contracts are worth. the downside is bounded by what's already real. the upside isn't bounded by anything yet

what it is NOT
-> not "buy anything volatile"
-> not "YOLO into a random small cap"
-> not "ignore the downside because I only care about upside"

real asymmetry still has a real bear case. I post mine on every name. if you can't tell me what kills the trade, you haven't actually found asymmetry, you've found a gamble wearing its name, that's it.

that's the whole framework everything I post runs on

[jack @InvertedWingr]

$MU reports Sept 30, after close

This is the single biggest catalyst for the entire memory/AI hardware sector this quarter, bigger than any single name's own print

why:
-> guided $50B ± $1B revenue, up from $41.46B last qtr (record)
-> non-GAAP EPS guided $31 ± $1
-> HBM sold out through 2026, mgmt says even worse into 2027
-> stock still ~25% off its $1,255 high after the July chip selloff dragged it below $740

The number that actually matters isn't the beat, it's the FY27 Q1 guide and HBM4 qualification commentary
MU doesn't just report for MU. SK Hynix, WDC, SNDK, every DRAM/NAND name in the complex has historically moved on Micron's commentary more than their own

If guidance confirms the shortage extends into 2027 like mgmt keeps signalling, this is the print that resets the whole memory trade higher

if it cracks even slightly, expect the whole sector to get repriced with it

Sept 30, after close.

(long, nfa)

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@LovedropV @shwogud @optionology Quality modelling, I think this is one of the best upside power plays in the market at the moment.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

Why you should own $IREN

[jack @InvertedWingr]

$IREN

Why the markets have it wrong.

long, https://t.co/5ifWsmG6g2