Israeli Elections Live

Retired account that used to provide mathematical and legal analysis of Israeli elections.

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

It occurs to me that after this account's retirement I should link to the project I've been doing for the last year and a half.

It's just for fun, and has nothing whatsoever to do with politics.

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

@CoreyECohen No. Saving a party from the threshold is worth 1 seat at most. That is not worth more than "votes Labor would have lost from its supporters who hate Meretz" plus "votes Meretz would have lost from its supporters who hate Labor"

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

Mergers. Never. Work.

[Yaakov Katz @yaakovkatz]

.@naftalibennett is in trouble and the writing was on the wall. His merger with @yairlapid is not picking up steam. On the contrary- @gadi_eisenkot is - as of now - clearly the leader of the opposition and the camp that is looking to oust @netanyahu. If this group has a chance to win it will need to fall in line soon behind a leader and as of now that leader is Eisenkot.

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

@EylonALevy Too late

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

@Berniebklyn If you read my last five tweets on the subject the answer is very clearly yes.

And let me also say that you are making some heavy assumptions as to what my position was on the judicial reforms.

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

It's been three hours and I'm *still* in Tel Aviv.

For God's sake, there were less than 20 people here! They could all have been thrown in prison in under fifteen minutes if anybody in this country cared about the rule of law.

[Ofek Tzach אופק צח @OfekTzach]

שימו לב לתיעוד המטורף הזה: המפגינים החרדים מהפלג הירושלמי חסמו את *מסילת הרכבת לירושלים* - זו הפעם הראשונה אי פעם שהרכבת הזו נחסמת.

צפי לשיבושים קשים לכל אורך הקו.

שוטרים כרגע אין שם
משילות

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

@shalomBrim Yup! If only somebody were to put him in charge of the police. Then we wouldn't see things like what happened today.

Oh, wait...

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

I never state my political preferences in this account.

However, I will not only vote for but enthusiastically and publicly endorse whichever party declares that they will arrest every protestor, right or left, religious or secular, who blocks a road or rail without a permit.

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

If anybody is interested in running for the next election on a "no more protests" platform, the letters די are both available.

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

There is a breakdown of basic law and order in this country, and nobody cares to enforce it as long as the people breaking the law agree with them.

Anybody who declares that even their own supporters will be arrested if they disturb the peace will get my wholehearted support.

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

@mo2rose I live near Gesher Meitarim in Jerusalem. It's a very common protest location. I have several times barely avoided accidentally running over some kid who got shoved into the street. Every time it's for or against a different cause. I'm sick of it. Arrest them.

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

The right to protest is not the right to block the public highway.

I'm sick of everyone in this country - right, left, farmers, teachers, disabled, Charedim, Ethiopians, pro-hostage-deal, anti-hostage-deal - making our lives miserable.

Protest on the damn sidewalk!

[M. Rose @mo2rose]

@IsraelexLive I am sure you're not complaining at all and are just looking on and smiling that you are in a free country with the right to protest and freedom of expression

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

@mo2rose My only agenda is "I want to get home from work".

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

My TLV-JRS train has been canceled because of protestors blocking the train tracks.

We're stuck just outside Tel Aviv. The conductor announced 20 minutes ago that we're returning to Tel Aviv, but in that time we haven't moved at all, in any direction.

[Sam Sokol @SamuelSokol]

Haredi anti-conscription demonstrators outside the Jerusalem home of the head of the Israel Police Traffic Department Chaim Shmueli (The Jerusalem Faction)

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

And you thought Israeli elections were unpredictable.

[FDD @FDD]

Syria holds elections in Kurdish-majority areas, finds Assad-era chemical weapons

@sfrantzman in FDD's @LongWarJournal: https://t.co/ZphyHC6oHX

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

Don't miss this.

[Harel Cain @harelcain]

הנה הכנתי גם פוסטר כדי שלא תפספסו. הקישור בתגובות. מוזמנים לשתף ולהשתתף.

[Israel Elects @israel_elects]

A Lieberman-led Together-Yashar-YB merger would hemorrhage seats to both Likud and Democrats

🔴Together-Yashar-Beteinu: 44 (-5)
🔵Likud: 26 (+2)
🔴Dems: 13 (+3)
🔵Shas: 8
🔵Otzma: 8
🔵UTJ: 7
🟢Ra'am: 5
🟢Hadash-Ta'al: 5
🔵RZP: 4

+/- no-merger scenario

via Lazar/Maariv

3/4

[Matthew S. Shugart @laderafrutal]

As usual, these (real or hypothetical) alliances mean either no change or decline in seats for the parties involved.

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

@SethAMandel First shot at forming a coalition is determined by probability of success. Netanyahu has twice been given first shot despite not heading the largest party at the time, succeeding once (2009) and failing once (September 2019).

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

@Juan_Ostrovsky @Arithmomaniac No poll showed him quite that low. And even if it were true - that would be Lapid saving his political career at the expense of the bloc's success. See https://t.co/faJo4uPBl2

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

Comparing each polling firm's last poll before the Bennett-Lapid merger and first poll after:

Maagar Mochot: 21+6=26
Kantar: 20+6=24
Midgam: 21+7=26
Lazar: 24+7=27
Filber: 10+4=20

With the exception of Filber (who always does his own thing) they all agree this was a mistake.

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

@Arithmomaniac But if a Lapid voter flees Bennett to vote for the Democrats, that doesn't mean no harm done. Once a voter leaves their natural political home, the drive to vote lessens.

Inclement weather, a minor cold, other inconveniences - they'll be the first to stay home on election day.

[Israeli Elections Live @IsraelexLive]

@Arithmomaniac Some polls show the opposition as a whole doing better after the merger; others show the coalition doing better. But, Filber excepted, the differences are all within the margin of error (one or two seats). So it's likely the missing seats stayed within the bloc. (1/2)