Jabberwock

I'm tweeting in fun! global macroのtrade ideaを発信。 テクニカルはファンダメンタルに先行すると考える派。 考えは柔軟に。※予想はたまにしか当たりません。#climate crisis #stand with Palestine

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

トレンドフォローを目指すなら、利食い損切りはtrailing stopを使う。

基本はwait and see、トレード回数は少ないほどよい。

時間のstopも使う。

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

金曜半導体買ってたのブラックロックだったのか。
よし買うか

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

必読

[Rick Rieder @RickRieder]

Labor markets continue to see gains, but is this yesterday’s news?

Today's nonfarm payroll figure came in stronger than expected at 165,000 jobs gained in October, with upward revisions of 84,000 for the prior two months. The unemployment rate remained fairly steady at 4.1%.

For some time, we've characterized the labor market as a period of "low hire/low fire" jobs growth, whereby firms are neither hiring many new workers nor laying many off. Indeed, average monthly jobs growth over the past 6- and 12-month periods has been 83,000 and 74,000, respectively. Today's stronger numbers are encouraging, but they need to be considered within the context of broader economic growth.

Interestingly, we find ourselves in an environment where economic growth and labor market gains appear to be decoupling in profound ways. Real GDP growth accelerated to 3.4% in the third quarter, yet labor market gains have been more modest over the last several months. An outsized portion of the growth we're witnessing derives from capital expenditure related to the AI infrastructure buildout. Consider that investment in computers and peripheral equipment, representing just 2% of overall GDP, accounted for more than a third of GDP growth over the last 12 months.

From a monetary policy standpoint, as long as we remain in this solid economic environment, with inflation running well above the Fed's 2% target, labor markets are unlikely to be top of mind for policymakers. Meanwhile, the profound AI investment cycle continues to drive broad economic and corporate earnings growth. Yet an increasingly concentrated group of companies is creating and capturing an outsized share of the benefits, leaving the broader equity market highly sensitive to changes in just a handful of names. In recent days, we've begun to see greater equity market volatility amid concerns over potential future regulation.

Today's payroll data was interesting and confirmatory of an economy that has been operating at a breathtakingly strong pace. But it's also a comprehensive read on labor relative to yesterday's economic conditions. Markets today are much more focused on the future of AI spending, capital allocation and rebalancing activity, as well as how a new political framework will influence growth, fiscal conditions and the operating environment for different industries.

How, then, should one position fixed income portfolios? In our view, the regime has shifted and fixed income yields reside at historically attractive levels. Real rates are positive across the globe, while the equity risk premium remains paper-thin and equity market concentration creates fragility and volatility that investors don't need to accept. We think a diversified, income-oriented portfolio can deliver equity-like returns today with dramatically less volatility, drawdown and concentration risk. Recent market activity seems to reinforce that view and we think that should continue well into 2027.

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

ハゲバンはオラクルと一緒に逝くんじゃないかな。CDSも上がってるし

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

利食い
ごちそうさまでした

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

SPXショートをセットアップ

[GentokuX @gentokux]

先読みで下落した市場ですが、ここから先は証拠(受注キャンセル、価格低下、増産投資凍結等)待ちとなり、これらが確認される度に諦めの売りが出て底値形成、その後は定常的な利益水準を模索した価格形成となります。なおセミナー等でお話してきたようにITバブルの経験からすると全治2年かと思います。

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

次期大統領候補のオソフ氏「巨大テックを屈服させる」これはあかん😅
民主党支持者も経済失速でもインフレ抑圧を支持しそうだし。

https://t.co/LcBasbDPhz

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

If I followed my emotions, I probably would have covered my shorts yesterday. But thankfully I have enough experience to know that my stops are better than my feelings. For that reason, I am still short $SPY and $DIA against a few longs, including $TEVA and $IBB, which are both profitable.
I will post when I cover my shorts... profit or loss.

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

FEDWATCH:

“.. Data center and defense spending increasingly compete for the same chips, power, and industrial capacity. .. So the real slowdown could be a double whammy: defense spending and data centers.”

@Marcomadness2

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

SPXショートをセットアップ

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

結局クジラが弱気になったら
素直に従えということだなー

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

え、これて景気減速にbetしてんのか😅

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

偶然か不明だが約17年周期で強気相場が終わっている。
中央銀行の対応が早いので、最近の底入れは早いが、景気後退なら半年以上調整する。

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

強気相場
1949→1966 17
1982→1999 17
2009→

[StockMarket.News @_Investinq]

Steve Weiss says the AI trade is on pause and he thinks we already saw the peak

"They used to be able to raise money whenever they wanted, whatever they wanted, and any valuation they wanted"

"Some funds are saying, and sovereigns saying, we're full. We're too full. We don't need any more"

"I think the AI trade is definitely on pause, and this is very typical at the peak of a cycle. I think we saw the peak"

Weiss points to OpenAI trimming its raise by $10B and funds pulling orders, with $NVDA $ORCL and $XLK all under pressure this week

When the money stops chasing every round, valuations follow

via @HalftimeReport

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

選挙前だから交渉は順調だと連呼する。実際にやってることは逆で、原油も下がらないだろう。

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: A US strike has hit an air defense system on Qeshm Island, southern Iran, per N12.

It is part of limited strikes carried out by the US in recent weeks without formally announcing them.

[Wall Street Rollup @WallStRollup]

Apollo's Mark Rowan is calling out AI debt mispricing.

"Companies have 40 billion, 60 billion market caps and are paying 16 to 18% for their debt. One of those things is wrong."

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

なんでそんな機密情報が漏れるんだよ。
作り話です、て自明してるだろ！
いい加減なニュース流すな

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Trump may be days away from launching a nuclear strike on Iran under direct pressure from Netanyahu, Tucker Carlson says.

He says "the target would be Pickaxe Mountain in central Iran," where Israel claims Iran has restarted its nuclear program.

"Bibi calls Trump about it every day," he says, adding that no conventional weapon can destroy Pickaxe Mountain.

"Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend," which would be November 7, he adds.

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

半導体株は損切り。
Goldの買い場、SPXショートのセットアップ機会を待つ。

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

合意すれば原油ショート、Goldロングしたいね☺️

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

強気相場
1949→1966 17
1982→1999 17
2009→

[Jabberwock @Jabberwock50]

来週は日経平均が200dmaを明確に割り込むのか要確認
AI半導体相場終われば、K字型経済のアメリカは景気後退する可能性ある。

[김대미 @damipov]

미너비니의 50/80 룰

시장을 이끌던 주도주가 큰 천장을 찍고 나면
80% 확률로 반토막이 나고
50% 확률로 80% 빠진다는 얘깁니다.

주도주는 오를 때도 앞장서지만 빠질 때도 앞장섭니다.

요즘 인텔 $INTC , 하이닉스 $SKHY , 키옥시아 차트 보면 이미 반토막 근처까지 와 있습니다. 실적은 사상 최대인데도요.

"이 정도 빠졌으면 싸다"는 생각이 제일 위험합니다. 반토막 난 주식이 거기서 또 반토막 날 수 있다는 게 이 룰의 핵심입니다.

그래서 주도주는 들고 버티는 게 아니라, 꺾일 때 팔고 다시 셋업이 나올 때 사는 겁니다.

싼 건 싼 게 아닙니다. 💰현금 들고 계세요