Jacob Hornstein

UATX '28 | Words in National Review, The Hill, WSJ, Tablet, NY Sun

[Jacob Hornstein @Jacob_Hornstein]

I love that @JDVance and @elonmusk are concerned about falling birthrates. But they're wrong to only focus on cultural and economic causes. Genetics play a more important role, and policymakers have to take that into account. My latest in @thehill:

[Jacob Hornstein @Jacob_Hornstein]

~75% of the US population lives in states closer to the Atlantic than Pacific. ~33% lives on the Eastern Seaboard vs. ~15% on the West. The Rockies split the Mississippi basin from the Pacific. The Western seaboard states are shrinking (CA will lose residents between 2020 and 2030, OR and WA have slightly more.) East Asian economies will decline faster than European economies when birthrates -> population decline and are less productive per capita. SF to Tokyo is 11hrs, NY to London is 7. America is much more strongly connected to Europe than Asia (even ignoring demographics and political ties) and will probably remain so.

[The Mind Scourge @TheMindScourge]

The US is a Pacific Ocean and Western Hemisphere country

Will be much more obvious as the 21st century goes on

The European orientation was temporary

[Jacob Hornstein @Jacob_Hornstein]

@novusolus He values salesmanship and may believe exclusivity draws attention and speculation to his message

[Jacob Hornstein @Jacob_Hornstein]

@haravayin_hogh How so? What are the plausible alternatives to Georgian Stalin?

[Jacob Hornstein @Jacob_Hornstein]

@coholismal Recently met a guy who runs a charity that gives psychedelics to veterans and Alzheimer’s patients

[Nemets @Peter_Nimitz]

@watchingspirals I was right, but I lost. A quarter million of our supporters died, hundreds of thousands of our supporters self-purged from institutions, opportunity to challenge DEI in medicine was blown, Kennedy institutionalized anti-vaxx, & we lost 3% of our educated supporters to Democrats.

[DEEP LEFT @Dljokl]

Everything that people say about Zelensky applies 1,000x to Chiang. Westerners were obsessed with him, were sure he would defeat communism, taking back all of China. He just needed a little bit more money...

[Jacob Hornstein @Jacob_Hornstein]

Thiel: "There is a lack of understanding of just how meticulous and unique Japanese thinking is...Japan is one of the places that has been least affected by the negative aspects of globalization."

[Jacob Hornstein @Jacob_Hornstein]

Thiel: "I told [Vance] that it would be more important for the United States to focus more on domestic issues so that the U.S. economy would be in a solid state when Vance runs for president in three years."

[Jacob Hornstein @Jacob_Hornstein]

The technology driven homogenization of the local means that culture, ethnicity, language, and all other nurture based modifiers are increasingly irrelevant and that genes, blood, and all other nature based characteristics are more important than ever.

[volvoks🇭🇷 @volvoks99]

She is a member of Maltese Partit Nazzjonalista, yet has a son serving in Finnish army. This is what Erasmus marriages get you.

[FischerKing @FischerKing64]

People want to find a ‘silver bullet’ on wokeness - like it’s a series of ideas or policy choices. It is civil rights law, or refusal to recognize genetic differences or women in the workplace.

Maybe it’s just what happens when a society is falling apart because it has no core. Like it’s a predictable outcome when you lose cohesion - and the ideas come later.

Austria-Hungary had all kinds of ‘woke conflict’ around 1910 as its multiracial empire shifted toward having a parliament. Every ethnic group became a block. And it all fell to pieces at the major test in WW1.

Lee Kuan Yew summed it all up when he said in a multicultural society people vote on ethnic solidarity.

That’s basically what we are seeing in a more complicated way in the USA. You can close the border and enforce solidarity like from 1924-1965 - or we can fragment to pieces.

[Samo Burja @SamoBurja]

In a kleptocracy public funds are stolen and those who benefit are politically powerful enough to capture the government itself.

As true in the modern U.S. as of post-Communist Eastern Europe states of the 1990s.

Since the U.S. is so much richer, the theft is far greater too.

[Jacob Hornstein @Jacob_Hornstein]

David, I’m a big fan of your work. But

— their ballistic missiles may have underperformed (not clear), but their drones have outperformed. Look at the strikes on radars and bases: the Iranians seem to have done more damage than we thought they could.

— India is almost certainly not going to use force to re-open the strait. They have a strong relationship with the Iranians predicated on their shared desire to check Pakistani power. Sending ships is probably best read (don’t know Indian politics well) as a way for Modi to seem tough to voters as prices rise.

— Key parts of the Iraqi government are still cooperating with the Iranians. Azerbaijan de-escalated earlier tensions. Turkey doesn’t want another unstable neighbor.

— China may not appreciate Iran’s oil disruptions, but it still gains something from the U.S. being tied up in the Middle East, and would lose something from a weakened Iran that couldn’t entangle the U.S.

It’s possible the Iranian regime falls. But it’s worth keeping in mind that even the Israelis and Americans reportedly don’t think that’s on the table right now. I’d give majority odds the regime is still in place by EOY.

[Jacob Hornstein @Jacob_Hornstein]

Headline: Iran going to escalate in response to Israeli attacks

Subtext: The things mentioned as escalations are all doable post war. Iran has not yet struck key economic infastructure in the Gulf or in Israel in response to Israel's strike on its steel sector.

When Israel struck South Pars, it took 6-8 hours for Iran to respond by hitting Ras Laffan.

The longer the delay here, the more likely it is that the delay reflects some kind of ongoing negotiations the Iranians don't want to disrupt

[Babak Vahdad @BabakVahdad]

A well-placed Iranian figure-whose name I won’t disclose-reflects a view increasingly shared even among those who held more moderate positions before the war:
“After today’s attacks by the Israeli regime on Iran’s economic infrastructure and nuclear facilities, there is no longer any justification for Iran to remain in the NPT, to continue cooperation with the IAEA, or to uphold the fatwa banning the development of nuclear weapons. It now appears that under the new leadership, the Islamic Republic may need to revisit and reassess all of these commitments.”
#Iran #Iranwar

[Jacob Hornstein @Jacob_Hornstein]

@theojaffee @JimMcMurtry01 And I think a system in which only American Indians can build things is worse than one where no one can! At least the latter has the escape valve of necessity — the former will enrich a narrow tribal elite at everyone else’s expense.

[Jacob Hornstein @Jacob_Hornstein]

@theojaffee @JimMcMurtry01 I think white people should be allowed to build things too

[Jacob Hornstein @Jacob_Hornstein]

@ayatr0llah @formerlyed Is it true that Mojtaba is the front-runner right now? Media keeps saying so but seems like there are fewer AOE members saying so

[Jacob Hornstein @Jacob_Hornstein]

@orrdavid @olliejmorgan @SowingAlphaSeed Polymarket doesn't charge fees for almost all markets.

[Bachman @ElonBachman]

An easy test of this theory is Anglo Africa, where not only is housing cheap but full-time staff rounds to free even for the middle classes...and still fertility looks the same as elsewhere.

[Jacob Hornstein @Jacob_Hornstein]

@WillManidis Karl Popperism