JamesPetch

Experienced investor, Vancouver/London based. Trade house money on large fat pitches for hopefully outsized returns.

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

@dalibali2 Not yet…

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

@Mabiverse123 Sell the news rules the day. Usually a decent time to add tbh.

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

$BETR See where it trades but decent time to start in, especially if it grinds lower. Governance/CEO for better or worse is sorted. Breakeven soon? Buyback. Expected earnings dump, everything drops on earnings.

4Q likely to be rough w/volumes. So likely time to average in...

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

@Mabiverse123 Yeah. But as always things love to implode on earnings…

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

$TTD Those who bought over 15 AH's...

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

$TTD 🫡🫡🫡🫡

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

$TTD Those buying at 15...

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

@CapitalVennett $TTD Probably. Q1 guide is similar to estimates and 💩💩💩. Think they are buying new executives space. They will end up growing revenue annually vs 2025, but only by a very small amount.

27 looks like a trainwreck, but also likely purposefully set that low.

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

$TTD Solid timing with layoffs...

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

$TTD Dumb question but why did they buy no shares back at $12...? Seems very silly, but awarded Jeff mucho more shares via performance awards, and allowed for executives and employees to reprice options at $12.26.

Common shareholders perpetually rinsed.

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

@Crussian17 $TTD Couple reasons. Jeff Green is terrible at addressing the elephant in the room (AMZN), earnings beat, but growth still negative for the year, capex is growing (investing in DC's).

JG spent most of the call waxing on and on but not really better delineating the turnaround.

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

$TTD Those buying at 15...

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

$TTD Good place to sell covered calls tbh. Watch them get bought out at $25, or implode and trade back to $12. Either is about as viable...

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

@Mabiverse123 Haha they are levered 15:1 in their reinsurer. Some stabilization at a bigger number is very helpful. Plus the infrastructure and data required to scale up takes time. Think of them like a $HCI, not a $BETR or an $APP.

Check back in 3-5 years.

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

$ROOT growth and tech bois in insurance needs to go away. If I read one more investment thesis focused on earnings and P/E I might lose it…

Here’s a tip for insurance companies, focus on equity and ROE. P/B matters, this company is a sleeper and trades closer to 1x with DTAs.

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

@Mabiverse123 Simplified. But also the investor base and expectations. They are also highly leveraged, so not surprising they stabilized, need capital and more data as well. These stocks are compounders not get rich quicks. Especially if it gets near or under book value.

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

$ROOT if you mention P/E or P/S you prolly shouldn’t be investing in insurance…

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

@DueDoctor Just ante up and start giving kids packs of small bars…

[Gregory Blotnick @gregoryblotnick]

good analysts like you are trying to find DD FCF yields

great analysts like me are trying on women's lingerie at DD's Discounts

how do you think I know my sector better than anyone else?

I'll bet you'd never think to go to autozone and drink a gallon of windshield wiper fluid, like I did this morning

here's my math on $AZO, and fwiw and DD's is $ROST.

1/5

for a category expansion thesis using conservative market penetration ests, I'm at $5B in 2035 AZO Beverage revs (AZOB), discounted back, apply an SBUX multiple, and I'm at 130% upside to street.

Do you know what street numbers are embedding for AZO's Beverage segment?

Zero.

My variant views shift entire industries. They transform businesses and they open the Consumer sector's eyes as to what they've been missing.

What's my downside on the trade, by the way?

Similarly, zero.

Is 130% up and 0% down good?

For other people, yes, for me, about average.

2.

Now, we need a catalyst to capture that 130% upside.

When there is no catalyst, I create my own.

With one quick email I communicated my view to not just every single Consumer pod, but to Japanese industrials, Russian war material, French bakeries, as well as to every dicator, oligarch, shah, and financial news outlet on the planet.

Why? Because I do this every time.

The first 50 emails nothing happened.

On the 51st email, one person traded off the email I sent.

And because everyone else saw the stock go up after the email hit, they decided that I move markets.

The stock rallied 5%. Everyone saw it rally 5%, which means an email from me is good for a quick 5% trade. Of course, now that 5% has become 20%, and AZO is ripping higher by the second, as all my ideas do.

This is why I command the entire flow of the sector.

They assume I move markets, because I do, and my existence itself is a daily masterclass in reflexivity.

3.

Here's what my email said: **CHATTER AZO +130%**

That's all I ever send.

They look, the stock moved up, and they follow a great investor's footsteps.

Within 10 minutes I will email AZO IR and CEO my updated segment ests to capture beverage upside

They don't know that any of this has even took place, nor do they know I spent the night inside their store because of how well-connected I am with corporate access (the building super).

They also don't know that I'm long into the print and alt data is 30 bps short.

So I spent the night creating 30 bps of comp, just knowing in advance what I could set on fire that's eligible for insurance.

I also ate 35 Goodyear tires. Those, I was just hungry, I don't think they'll be in comps.

Finally, my backup plan is that if comps come in light for the quarter, I burn the store down.

This removes it from the comp base. Removing a negative SSS% means SSS% goes higher and should get us over the street bogey.

4.

Once AZO management gets my math, they will disseminate this to the street, everyone will use the $5B revenue math I sent them, and discount back.

Why? Because the stock is already bid up 7% pre-market. So now it's 123% up, 7% down, and they will all say "worth a punt."

By the end of the week every pod model will have $5B in 2035 windshield wiper fluid revenue

Right now someone is emailing Advanced Auto Parts management to ask:

"Can you do this too?"

Because every AAP bull has a mental "If AZO goes up 50%, AAP has 300% upside."

This is because every AAP bull is both completely delusional and severely affected by PTSD.

I have thought about opening a rehab clinic solely for AAP bulls in the past except all they do is lose money.

But they're missing something here.

AAP cannot do what AZO is doing.

Why?

Because I'm short the stock.

5.

Also, because Advanced Auto's wiper fluid is poisonous to human beings.

Not many people know that...

Except me, of course.

I know my sector better than anyone else on earth, and I created the AZO position as a L/S pair with AAP.

How did I know that AZO's was drinkable and AAP's wasn't?

Well, I know my sector. You can keep asking if you want, even though I've told you 5,000 times that it's the only thing that matters.

Now, here are my event path, trading, and sizing considerations.

I am short AAP but sized for a 15% rally higher on blind spec/read-thru off AZO. I have ORLY as a flier long which should offset 5% of the loss.

With AAP up 10% against me, I will size fully.

The next leg of the event path is that over 3 weeks, the equity will lose 95% of its value.

Because 3 is how long it will take for every Consumer analyst in America to go drink AAP's wiper fluid.

I'd start taking the trade off down 90%, pending where AZO is trading.

Now if you'll excuse me, I must get back to my primary research...which is the plus-size maternitywear section at DD's Discounts.

Good luck with your yields, by the way.

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

$TTD Read that as a ~$100M call option insider buy. Thats a much much smarter way to buy another $100M in shares... Jeff Green does not want to get bodied again.

If he turns this around he will definitely be a legend.

[JamesPetch @JamesPetch4]

$BETR Yeah... This is what I was worried about. Plus the lawsuits post this debacle. What an absolute 💩💩💩.

https://t.co/NCshxBbDO5

[Vishal Garg @vishal_better]

I heard from my friend and former teammate @LeahPrice444 today that she is leaving $BETR

I was so surprised that someone who was heading up our Tinman AI platform strategy and lived and breathed Tinman would be leaving the company.

This should concern every shareholder.

Just last year, Better recruited Leah — former FHFA fintech/AI leader — to lead Tinman AI and help turn Better’s technology into a platform for the entire mortgage industry.

She was exactly the kind of talent $BETR needs to retain.

Now, shortly after Daniel Lewis takes control as interim CEO, she is leaving.

Shareholders should ask a simple question:

Why is one of Better’s most important AI and mortgage technology leaders walking out the door at precisely the moment the company's Board and new CEO says AI is its future?

This proxy fight is ultimately about stewardship and monetization of an extraordinary technology platform and the people who built it.

Leadership is not just about announcing a strategy. It is about inspiring and driving the people capable of executing it.

$BETR shareholders deserve better answers — and better leadership ---- Is the current Board and new CEO capable of delivering it?

Please ask yourself --- what has @danielsethlewis and the current Board achieved in the last 6 weeks despite all their big talk?

Where is the UK bank sale where I handed the buyer whom I had developed a strong personal relationship with to Harit Talwar and Daniel Lewis the day after they fired me 6 weeks ago?

Where is CK HELOC - which I delivered on a silver platter to them 4 days before I was fired?

Doing NOTHING is VOTING for @danielsethlewis and the current board. Please vote your GREEN Card today.