Janus van der Berg

Background in psychology, international relations and conflict studies.
Pseudonym for PERSEC reasons.

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@igorsushko Does he know that for a legal case of libel to succeed it's a bit problematic if the accusations are true?

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@TrentTelenko I agree that there is a chance that we'll see the RU army collapse.
When is difficult to predict, but when it happens it'll suddenly come out of the blue and snowball from there.
Low morale, lack of trust between enlisted & officers, high losses... cohesion is eroding fast.

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@RALee85 The more I see Pro-Russian accounts claiming "Russia is too strong for Ukraine and therefore they must surrender", the more I think it's a bluff.
Given what we know about losses and undermanned units I wouldn't be surprised if we're overestimating their force strength.

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@RealCynicalFox All I have to offer on this point as a European is shame and apology...
After 80 years we are still unable to provide security in our own backyard without US assistance.
At this point European militaries have little to give because no one prepared because no one would listen.

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@EPICGOPFAIL Every time I think Scholz is finally going in the right direction he manages to disappoint me again 2 days later.
I thought he was finally done with his whole Ribbentrop-roleplay... the joke isn't funny anymore at this point.

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@jobevllu @NotWoofers @Danspiun I don't think 'having another go at this' was the primary concern of the people involved.
This does not look like the site of a well-organized military operation where sound decisions were being made - it looks like a site of sheer panic and terror.

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@kemal_115 What's even more tragic is that this is the guy who's supposed to keep the other guys in line... No wonder there's no discipline.

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@MilHiVisualized @MilAvHistory Finally someone who addresses the elephant in the room: the baseline of normal fires during peacetime.
While some are no doubt real sabotage or attacks, I think people really overstate this. People are claiming burning malls as sabotage. Really?
It's Russia; fires are normal. 😃

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@MilHiVisualized @MilAvHistory @Bundeskanzler @ABaerbock @MAStrackZi You should have put something that goes boom or bang in the thumbnail.
I guess 'politics' solicits the same enthusiasm on YT as 'logistics'... 😉

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@H_Bouwmeester Ah die roebelhoer weer. 'Oekraïne kan deze oorlog niet winnen'. Inmiddels net zo geloofwaardig als de welbekende '3 dagen totdat Kyiv omsingelt is'.
Ironisch hoe dit soort collaborateurs genocide op Oekraïne proberen te accommoderen onder het mom van Oekraïense levens redden.

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@jasonwalters85 @H_Bouwmeester Stalin komt anders ook een heel eind.
Dat Putin minder op zijn kerfstok heeft komt denk ik meer door de andere omstandigheden; ik denk dat hij er qua persoonlijkheid weinig moeite mee zou hebben.

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@H_Bouwmeester Maar af en toe merk je dat de passie een beetje de overhand krijgt bij Åslund.
Ergens wel zonde want het is wel een auteur met ontzettend veel kennis, dus afgezien van de rethoriek is hij wel iemand die weet waar hij het over heeft.

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@H_Bouwmeester Ja...hoewel ik het met het laatste deel wel eens ben vind ik het eerste overdreven. Putin is mijns inzien ook nog steeds een rationele actor (Hitler overigens ook tot de latere jaren van de oorlog).
Meedogenloos met een compleet andere normen en waarden... maar wel rationeel.

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@PetrosVon I won't excuse it because Alex is actually completely correct and fair in his criticism. But like you said: I don't think a Turkey outside NATO would really be any better in this regard.
A Turkey outside of NATO would likely have attacked Armenia in the back in 2020.

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@PetrosVon Turkey is...awkward. A lot of people in other NATO countries don't like a lot of things Turkey or Erdogan does... but this is one case where geostrategic interests take precedence.
Their control over the Bosporus and strategic location essentially gives them immunity.

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@JohanGaltung I have no doubts that some war crimes will inevitably be committed by some Ukrainians... but this 'interview' is just a disinformation campaign meant to discredit the Ukrainians. /5

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@JohanGaltung His narratives about Azov are the 'classical' Azov-fetishism all Russian propaganda shares...
Azov is just a small unit of a very large army. We have a good idea of where the different units are and Azov units were nowhere near where he claimed to have been. /4

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@JohanGaltung What he mentioned he 'saw' about POWs getting shot in the knees is a very well-known video that has long since been discredited as a Russian fake.
I'm not saying there's never any atrocities but him referencing this video as something he saw is a black flag. /3

[Janus van der Berg @JanusvanderBerg]

@JohanGaltung I've only been able to go through the few translated parts of it but it's just a direct copy of all the Russian narratives to try and discredit everything surrounding their crimes in Bucha (that have been well-documented by plenty of impartial observers). /2