Could the options market be flashing warning signs of a bigger selloff? 📉
Brent Kochuba, Founder of @spotgamma, is watching rising demand for downside protection, increasing volatility and a flattening VIX futures curve.
He explains why these signals could suggest market stress is building, and what traders should watch before selling accelerates.
#StockMarket #OptionsTrading #VIX
NEW: My conversation with Cem Karsan about the Big Print that's coming: the government stepping in and buying stocks outright, which he thinks could be months away.
Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Preview
1:02 There's a major player "bullying" the market
4:33 The five pressures backing Washington into a corner
8:58 How a few stocks are hiding how weak the SP500 looks
16:00 Is buying stocks the government's only move left?
21:59 Why they need a crash, and why it hasn't happened yet
27:32 Who really controls the world's oil right now
34:00 The debt wall nobody is talking about
43:14 His views on Bitcoin, and where he thinks it hits a ceiling
54:25 How much will the market crash?
58:22 The AI story that made him start watching for a trigger
1:05:41 What he'd actually do with his money right now
Follow Cem at @jam_croissant
The index is at a record high. Most of the stocks in it are already in a bear market.
@jam_croissant: 59% of the S&P 500 is in a bear market right now, and 45% of it trades negative beta. 134 names are down 40% or more.
A handful of giants are holding up the tape. When those rich calls decay and dealers are forced to sell, the question isn’t if it cracks, it’s when.
▪ Total payments (down/principal/interest)
▪ $500,000 house
▪ 20% down
▪ 30 year mortgage
-2021-
2.97% rate
$704,782
-2026-
7.50% rate
$1,106,869
Good luck, kids.
Charm is arguably the most informative Greek to track- because it reveals a potential underlying directional bias thanks to one of the only things we can truly rely on - the passage of time.
This is today's *accurate* MM charm profile - a simulation covering thousands of paths and model calcs - and spot is sitting right on the flip
Today @ 11am ET I will teach you to read it
(thread)
THE CATASTROPHIC CORRUPTION OF THE TRUMP TARIFFS
“Imagine the government ➕ $100 to the price of something you buy in the name of creating more jobs in America.
You pay the extra $100.
Later, the SCOTUS rules that the government never had the authority to impose the charge. No jobs were created & everyone is $100 poorer.
You would assume at the very least that you get your $100 back.
You don’t.
The company that collected the $100 gets to keep it & they can even take some of their ill-gotten profits & donate it (as a kickback) to the government (officials).
Making matters more despicable, imagine that while the legality of that $100 charge is still being fought in court, the family firm of a US cabinet official out promoting the policy he knows is illegal.... buys the rights to those future refunds, when it is found to be illegal.
That’s what happened with Donald Trump’s tariffs.”
A BAD FIRST CHAPTER DOESN’T DETERMINE THE SEASON
It’s never too late to step back & re-adjust your stance & swing.
What PCA has done this year is a testament to mental flexibility.
When effort isn’t producing the result you want, don’t just increase effort. 1st ask whether your stance needs to change..
Cem Karsan @jam_croissant thinks the drop coming is not something the administration fears. It is something they want.
The playbook is the same every time. Let the market slide, let fear build, then step in with a headline and squeeze it right back up. He says they have run it before, and Liberation Day was the biggest version yet.