Johnny Mayer

Stay skeptical mah bradas

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@Babyblue7524 @Peter_Lukacs_R It’s sarcasm buddy

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@MarioNawfal Sounds like a shittier JCPOA.

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@BarackO59493 @MarineTraffic How much more. And show me your evidence.

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@BarackO59493 @MarineTraffic That average of 23 includes dark transits. Transponders off doesn’t mean invisible. Kpler and the major maritime analysts track both dark and AIS movement. There’s multiple different types of satellite imagery.

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@MarioNawfal I keep seeing posts like this w/ language that implies a return to normal, i.e “strong rebound” or “recovery of traffic”.

Most of the transits were Iranian, Chinese, or sanctioned. Pre-war volumes were ~120/ day & diverse. This is a “slight uptick”, not a “strong rebound”.

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@duce99i @tradeoilstocks Truth.

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@TennesseeFrisk @DonMiami3 What part of what is said is untrue?

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@yoduvall @investinguab True, we’ll see what happens Friday.

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@Tejanobrown Damn right. Trump lying 40x that the war will be over tomorrow. The INSANE volatility that sidelined speculation. China cutting imports by ~half. And the US being totally OK with fucking erasing its reserves. No one expected any of these things to happen all at once, in 2 months.

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@TennesseeFrisk @DonMiami3 Our exports and SPR dumps have taken a huge chunk out of the supply gap. If we start bidding for our own oil, or ban exports, that’s extremely bullish for prices. Hormuz won’t normalize in time to fill the gap.

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@anasalhajji For context, today we have:

- Record low SPRs
- Maxed refining capacity & exports
- 9-consecutive weeks of (sometimes record) draws
- No shale explosion (like 2014)
- Peak demand/driving season incoming

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I can’t think of any historical precedent.

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@DiveBomb321 @Rory_Johnston How is 9 consecutive weeks of draws, record low SPRs, ~97% refinery utilization, and Cushing at ~20M bearish?

This weeks draw doubled expectations btw.

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@de17137844 @SamKovX I could see that. But the logistics are a mess, and there’s no telling how shut in production has been affected.

We also don’t even have a signed MOU, let alone a negotiated deal.

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@Kgbone @SamKovX You don’t have meaningful demand destruction at $80-$90, which is where we were for most of the conflict. Some areas yes, but not nearly enough to destroy a 11 million barrel per day gap.

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@JavierBlas I think very few people could have predicted that:

- China would reduce imports by nearly half.
- The US would empty its already low reserves.
- Trump would lie 38 times about a deal.

I’m nervous this has created the possibility for legitimate oil shortages, not just tightness.

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@OilandEnergy “Reduced” doing some heavy lifting.If alternate export routes were doing anything meaningful, we wouldn’t be seeing record inventory draws across the board. These draws are taking place before peak demand season AND with US export capacity maxed out.

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@JavierBlas Yeah that’s not a good trend. We were already at multi-year lows before the conflict. The war is nowhere near resolved, and until production restarts and oil is EXPORTED from the gulf — not just stranded tankers leaving — we will continue record draws across the board.

[Johnny Mayer @Johnny_mayer]

@Hamncheze22 @DarioCpx I won’t say anything mean, since you don’t seem to understand how this works.. It’s filling the gap that Middle East oil normally occupies.