WHERE THE MONEY IN QUANTUM ACTUALLY LIES.
A truly beneficial article for any private or public market investor focused or interested in Quantum.
We mapped every quantum company at or near $1B, every exit above it, and where the government's checks went. Twenty two companies, twelve exits, one massive pattern.
A company with 1,200 qubits and a government equity stake priced at $714M in June. A company with 108 qubits trades at $5B. Same technology, several times the price, depending on whether it's public or private. That gap explains every SPAC this year, and it closes in one of two directions.
Sixteen of the twenty two are building the whole machine, the two biggest government checks went to none of them. The next wave of unicorns come from somewhere else, and we lay it all out.
Full breakdown here: https://t.co/XB7AaY2cXV
$IONQ $QNT $INFQ
McDonald’s is everywhere. Its stock is getting crushed.
$MCD is down 22% this year, trades at 18x forward earnings, and yields 3.3%.
Looking at this map, is the sell-off a rare chance to buy the Golden Arches or is $MCD a value trap?
$INFQ another price target, another raise! BTIG lifts its target on Infleqtion to $25 from $22, a 13.6% increase, and maintains its Buy rating, according to The Fly.
@infleqtion made headlines at Quantum World Congress as CEO Matt Kinsella delivered the Keynote Address and announced 30 logical qubits on their neutral atom system, ahead of schedule. With elite company in neutral atom like QuEra, Atom, Google and Oratomic, neutral atom continues to show promise for lasting sensing and computing utility. My price target remains $43/share. NFA!
The best time to buy a great business is often when everyone else is scared of it.
Here are 5 quality companies that are down big this year and worth looking into 👇
1. $NFLX Netflix, down 42%
If you're curious about the random $SPY / $QQQ candle:
Just now, “US and Iran discuss phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade" - Reuters
- "A deal before the midterms could benefit Trump, as reopening Hormuz could ease tensions in the Gulf, contain oil prices and help bring down politically sensitive US gasoline prices."
- "Trump has said he thinks the US and Iran could reach a deal after midterm elections to Congress on November.”
Would make sense for Trump to want markets as strong as possible during Midterms elections…
The best thing that's happened to $INFQ is its CEO Matt Kinsella:
Early investor in $INFQ, then partner at Maverick Capital
Became the CEO in 2024
Raised $550M at its IPO
Stood in the Oval Office as the President signed Executive Orders on Quantum
Secured $3.9M from the US Department of Energy
Secured a $2M DARPA software compilation contract
Secured a $1M US Navy development award
Selected for 3 Genesis Mission projects
Secured a $20M follow-on award from NASA for quantum gravity sensors
Matt is a monster.
Ray Dalio decía: “La diversificación es el único almuerzo gratis en la inversión.”
Aquí tienes 5 acciones de negocios que podrían seguir creciendo durante los próximos 20+ años
1. $AMZN - Amazon
QUANTUM STOCK TIER LIST. EVERY MAJOR NAME, RANKED.
Methodology: We account for stock price/valuations, technology, revenue, structure, lockups. All of it.
S TIER:
$INFQ: The survivor, 10+ years of runway, revenue growing 116% from sensors that sell TODAY, and its hardware inside six government programs across three continents, Japan's national computer included, A+ management, stock price is cheap compared to peers.
$IONQ: $450M+ combined guidance, its own chip foundry with $SKYT, a 10,000-qubit blueprint for 2028, and vertically integrated in the field.
A TIER:
$QNT: Absolutely S tier worthy with the best machine on earth, 48 error corrected logical qubits, nobody's close. Cleanest structure in quantum (real IPO, no SPAC games), held out of S only by a $15B price tag and a December lockup expiry.
B TIER:
$QBTS: The only quantum company with genuinely deployed commercial customers, and first to convert its $100M CHIPS deal into a signed contract. The catch: annealing may be a dead end, and the gate model pivot is early.
C TIER:
$XNDU: The highest variance bet on the board. Real software moat (a third of quantum devs use PennyLane) and ASML plus AMD just signed on, but the entire roadmap hangs on closing a 24x loss gap by 2030.
$IQMX: Europe's most deployed quantum computers, and no thesis beyond that. Competent superconducting with no edge over IBM and Google in their own modality, plus fresh post SPAC dynamics.
D TIER:
$PSQL: Real Nobel-lineage tech and a great company, but at the moment they're D tier with a brutal structure. Roughly 85% of shares locked behind a $12 early-release tripwire that's already armed, ~50% dilution overhang, at 100x revenue.
$RGTI: A legitimate lab wearing with an outlandish valuation, multi-billion cap on single digit millions of revenue, the most extreme disconnect in quantum. The $100M CHIPS contract and 9 years of cash are real but so is the wiring wall.
F TIER:
$QUBT: The floor. Aggressive claims, thin verified substance, ~$1M-scale revenue against billions of market cap. The Arizona foundry is the one real asset.
Not financial advice.
$IONQ $INFQ $QNT
$INFQ Infleqtion just announced an important step toward fault-tolerant quantum computing through its integration of the open-source qLDPC library with NVIDIA CUDA-Q Logical.
The team constructed and validated a high-rate quantum error correction code requiring roughly 6 physical data qubits per logical qubit, about a 5X improvement in code rate versus the surface-code approach used for comparison. That puts the physical-to-logical ratio below 10:1, potentially allowing significantly more useful logical computation from the same underlying hardware.
This is an important step towards standardization.
Quantum computing is still fragmented across different hardware modalities, error-correction schemes, compilers and software stacks. NVIDIA is increasingly attempting to create a common layer through CUDA-Q, and now CUDA-Q Logical, where developers can build and evaluate fault-tolerant workloads across different QEC codes and architectures.
CUDA-Q is already designed to be QPU-agnostic across superconducting, trapped-ion, neutral-atom and photonic systems. If the industry begins converging around common interfaces and tooling, developers don't need to reinvent the entire software stack every time the underlying hardware changes.
We saw how enormously important standardized software ecosystems became for classical computing and eventually AI. Quantum will likely need something similar.
And Infleqtion is getting involved very early.
Infleqtion says the next work includes syndrome extraction, neutral-atom noise modeling, decoder benchmarking and ultimately physical execution.
Reducing error-correction overhead while simultaneously building toward a common fault-tolerant software ecosystem is a great step forward.
https://t.co/wXN755odui
$INFQ $NVDA
Just reading this makes me so excited for $INFQ
Think about all that’s been accomplished these last few months.
-Extended partnerships and collaboration with Nvidia.
-New $CSCO partnership for networking
-An $ETN partnership to improve the grid
-NASA contract expansion to $40 million
-Japan using Infleqtion parts for their quantum computer
AND SO MUCH MORE!!