Junkins85

Weirdo

[Junkins85 @Junkins85]

@SMASIMHO I need to call my dr. It won’t go down.

[Junkins85 @Junkins85]

@VolaTim lol uh oh, crayon drawer spotted.

I love how you chart boys know it all…… 50% of the time.

[Junkins85 @Junkins85]

@VolaTim @zapzupzep But isn’t that alpha? Finding something that you believe is mispriced before the market does?

Or should people only relay their high conviction once the market catches on and after it rips.

Odd take.

[Junkins85 @Junkins85]

@MWM76 Man, solid argument.

We believe you……….

[Junkins85 @Junkins85]

@zerohedge ChatGPT tells me that ~ 800 to 1,000 data centers are under construction or in the pipeline today, with the number continuously growing.

7 cancellations/delays in the past 2 months (less than 1%) does not seem too alarming.

[Junkins85 @Junkins85]

@JackedOnMargin @ariaradnia Strong tard comment.

$NBIS has $2B more debt than cash ($10B debt vs $8B cash)

[Junkins85 @Junkins85]

@vitaliyk Sure thing, boss.

Totally the same thing.

[Junkins85 @Junkins85]

@ondrejslunecko Not sure if serious or tard.

Actually, nm. Im sure I know which.

[Junkins85 @Junkins85]

@SMASIMHO @Para_Capital That thing couldn’t hold my Fitbit Charge’s jockstrap.

[Junkins85 @Junkins85]

@anthonybs Great stuff! Thanks for sharing 🤙

[anthony @anthonybs]

Introducing Nebius Customer Atlas: mapping 302+ companies using Nebius - from Base44 and Cursor to Porsche, Revolut, Google DeepMind and Mastercard.

➡️ https://t.co/F40b11Tmoc

I built it after finding dozens of customers Nebius had never publicly announced. So far it's surfaced 126+ undisclosed customer relationships!

Base44 (Wix) uses Nebius for LLM calls. Baptist Health runs agents on AI Cloud. CAVA uses Tavily in its production agent. Orbiq moved to Token Factory after a Mistral outage.

Together they reveal a super broad customer base spanning training, inference, agent search, robotics, financial services, drug discovery, and more.

$NBIS has said it likely won’t do another mega-deal. That makes tracking customer growth one of the best ways to understand the business between quarterly results.

If you know of any Nebius customers I've missed, I'd love to hear about them.

[Junkins85 @Junkins85]

@ElonPasen66628 And about 1.5 - 2x eoy 2027 ARR.

Filthy cheap if you think they’ll deliver.

Btw, their ceo has a loooong history (dating back to Yandex days) of under promising and over delivering.

[Junkins85 @Junkins85]

@JManCapital If Palantir (of all companies) vetted them, I’m comfortable.

[Marcel @MarcelLarsen_]

$NBIS

Your one calculation is wrong: $45B divided by $180M is 250x. And trailing P/E is the wrong tool for a company that grew revenue 454% last quarter and sells out every GPU it brings online. Nebius guides $3-3.4B of revenue this year at a ~40% group adjusted EBITDA margin, roughly $1.2-1.4B of adjusted EBITDA, and every dollar goes straight back into capacity customers are fighting over. CFO Dado Alonso: "Once again, we sold out our capacity as demand continued to exceed available supply." CRO Marc Boroditsky: "4 or more customers competing for every GPU we bring online."

What you skipped:
• Q2 revenue up 454% to $582.3M and ARR up 598% to $3.0B, with a 49.7% adjusted EBITDA margin in AI cloud. Four landmark deals averaged over $1B each

• 2026 guidance reaffirmed at $7-9B of ARR by year-end, after the AI cloud pipeline grew 3.5x in Q1 excluding hyperscaler deals

• Over $40B of customer commitments. AAA-rated Microsoft is $17.4B, up to $19.4B, with every tranche delivered, and Meta is up to ~$27B

• Over $9B of customer prepayments expected this year. 70% of Q2 deals included prepayments covering 50-60% of the capex, and payback fell to 1 year 10 months from 2-3 years

• GPU prices raised 17-21% on October 1. H100 went from $3.85 to $4.50 an hour and B300 from $7.85 to $9.50

• 5 GW of contracted power targeted by year-end, including a 1.2 GW Pennsylvania campus whose first 250-300MW arrives by the end of 2027

• Rated Platinum in SemiAnalysis's ClusterMAX 3.0 alongside CoreWeave

Now 2027. Microsoft's $17.4B runs five years out of Vineland, a site designed for up to 300MW. On 300MW that's about $11.6M per MW a year. Meta's $12B of dedicated Vera Rubin capacity, starting in early 2027, also runs five years, so $2.4B a year, or about 200MW at that rate. Volozh says Nebius plans to build more than 1 GW of new capacity a year starting in 2027. Take only 800MW of it:

• 200MW for Meta: $2.4B

• 600MW at $20M per MW, the bottom of Q2's $20-25M deals: $12.0B

• Plus $7B, the bottom of the 2026 guide

That's $21.4B of ARR at the end of 2027, and at Q2's 49.7% AI cloud margin, over $10B of adjusted EBITDA a year. Push 20% of the enterprise capacity into 2028 and ARR is still $19.0B. Wolfe models $13.9B, and BNP Paribas, with a $399 target, sees about $22B.

That gives zero credit for the $40-50M per MW short-term deals Nebius has started signing, "and sometimes above" per Volozh, Token Factory, where inference workloads more than tripled in Q2, or being named Palantir's sovereign AI infrastructure partner. Volozh: "We could sell our entire 2027 capacity on these terms today." The CFO said they're choosing not to, "reflecting our confidence with respect to future pricing dynamics."

At $45B, Nebius trades at 2.1x that $21.4B and 2.4x the stress case. The average analyst target is ~$284, and Rosenblatt is at $304.

"Worthless": at June 30 Nebius had $10.34B of shareholders' equity and $8.04B of cash, plus a stake in ClickHouse, a company valued at ~$15B in January. Microsoft and Meta's commitments alone come to up to ~$46B, about the entire market cap you call worthless. Lenders priced its first secured loan, $775M, at SOFR + 2.50%, and investors bought $3.45B of its converts at a 0.50% coupon. They read the filings you didn't.

On 1999: name one dot-com whose customers prepaid half the cost of its buildout, or that signed $17.4B with Microsoft and delivered every tranche. 27 years should be long enough to tell a company with no customers from one with over $40B of signed commitments.

On "short any rally": anyone who shorted Nebius on P/E at $76.77 last December had lost $223 a share, nearly 3x what they sold it at, by the time it hit $299.86 in June. That's the trade you're recommending today.

I'm long $NBIS.

[Junkins85 @Junkins85]

@flagspotting2 @tommyleed8888 @RJCcapital That they have enough hyperscaler contracts to cover their buildout and will use remaining capacity on much higher margin customers where they can deploy their full stack.

[Junkins85 @Junkins85]

@LogicalThesis Main revenue driver is slowing?

Not sure if serious or tard.

[Junkins85 @Junkins85]

@InvestorVideos Well then why post a false claim?

$NBIS is absolutely capitalizing on high spot prices with a portion of their capacity, unless you think they’re lying (?)

Sounds like you could use a history lesson instead of spreading FUD.

[Junkins85 @Junkins85]

@StockTrades_CA And where have you seen any indication of demand slowing down in the foreseeable future?

Of course it won’t stay that way forever, but there are billions and billions to be made in this industry so it’s autistic and laughable for you to imply that $NBIS will flop.

[Junkins85 @Junkins85]

@StockTrades_CA lol @ rapidly depreciating.

Try the total opposite with no demand relief in site according to every single hyperscaler, chip maker, tech industry leader, etc.

But I guess we should just believe you instead…..