Kevin Weatherly

Father of two. Native NYer, golfer, striving to be a better human every day. Psychologist.

[Kevin Weatherly @KevinWeatherly]

@spacemnke @grok did trump say any of this on Twitter?

[Kevin Weatherly @KevinWeatherly]

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[Ripster @ripster47]

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[Kevin Weatherly @KevinWeatherly]

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[Khairallah AL-Awady @eng_khairallah1]

As always, Thank you for reading this.

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[Stephen Trades @Stephen_Trades1]

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[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

Summary - Weekend Minervini On The Market Report - March 6, 2026

The major indexes are clearly under pressure now. While some of the indicators we track—such as up/down volume—remain neutral, the tape has been distribution-dominant for several weeks, something I’ve been pointing out in recent updates.

Previously, that distribution was somewhat fragmented between the NYSE and the NASDAQ. Now the weakness has become more synchronized. The Middle East conflict has clearly accelerated that deterioration, and participation among individual stocks has turned negative.

We’re seeing what I refer to as “pivot leakage”—increased volatility on the right side of bases near buy points. When that happens, the market becomes much more difficult to trade effectively. For the moment, stepping aside and remaining patient is the prudent approach.

Sentiment: Improving, But Not at Contrarian Levels Yet
Investor’s Intelligence advisor sentiment has improved slightly from a contrarian perspective, meaning bullishness has come down. However, bears have not meaningfully increased. In other words, we’re seeing less bullishness, but not real pessimism yet.

The bulls-to-bears ratio remains elevated—still well above 4-to-1. Historically, more pessimism is needed before durable bottoms form.

If the market continues to hover here or declines further over the coming weeks, we should begin to see more bearish sentiment emerge, which would actually be constructive for the market.

Long Term Advisor Models and Market Signals
Our SPY Advisor Model has not yet changed or raised cash. That model is intentionally designed to filter out short-term noise and respond primarily to longer-term price action.

If the market continues to deteriorate, the model will automatically begin raising cash and could eventually move to a sell signal—but that process requires either more time or further downside.

Bear Market Markers: No Major Crisis Yet
When evaluating whether we’re seeing a cyclical correction or something more severe, we monitor a set of bear market markers, including macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

Right now, there is no evidence of a structural bear market environment similar to:

--The 2000–2003 bear market

--The 2008 financial crisis

The one notable development has been the surge in oil prices, driven largely by geopolitical tensions.

Oil moving above $80 per barrel is important. Historically, that level acts as a tipping point where energy prices begin to negatively impact economic growth.

If oil were to continue climbing toward $90, $100, or higher, the negative effects on the economy would likely accelerate. However, if the current surge proves to be a temporary geopolitical shock, it may only result in a short-term correction rather than a major bear market.

Financial conditions remain healthy:
--Credit quality remains strong
--Interest rates are stable
--The banking system is in good shape

So at this stage, there is no systemic financial stress.

Index Technicals - NASDAQ
The NASDAQ has now pulled back to its 200-day moving average. This move makes sense considering the deterioration we’ve been seeing in breadth and the topping action in several mega-cap leaders.

In longer-term bull markets, it’s common to see multiple pullbacks to the 200-day moving average before the trend resumes. However, it’s important not to buy simply because the index reaches that level. We need to see how price behaves around it.

Dow Jones
The Dow also experienced a significant decline last week, bringing it close to its 200-day moving average.

Small and Mid Caps
The S&P 400 mid-cap index had a tough week but remains in a broader uptrend. Even if it pulls back toward the rising 200-day moving average, the overall structure remains constructive.

The Russell 2000 shows a similar pattern.
Despite recent underperformance, I still believe small and mid-cap stocks offer opportunity as capital continues to rotate away from the mega-cap leaders.

Leadership Deterioration
The IBD 50 index is showing signs of technical deterioration.

After breaking out from a base earlier, the index is now rolling over as volatility expands on the right side of many patterns. The relative strength line has also turned down.

This suggests the market will likely need time to repair—possibly several weeks or longer depending on how geopolitical developments unfold.

Volatility Spike
Volatility has risen sharply. The VIX moved above 28.5, which we consider a bear market warning level. While this doesn’t automatically signal a bear market, it does require close monitoring.

Periods of elevated volatility often coincide with market bottoms, but they can also mark the early stages of deeper corrections.

Breadth Deterioration
Another indicator we monitor is the percentage of stocks under pressure.

Currently, 78% of stocks are under pressure, which signals widespread deterioration across the market.

This reading can appear near market bottoms, but it can also occur at the start of more serious corrections. What matters now is whether the damage begins to spread further through base failures.

Right now, the market resembles a sprained ankle. If more bases begin to fail, it could evolve into something more serious.

STEM Model Warning
The Stock Trading Environment Model (STEM) turned red on February 4, indicating deteriorating conditions.

This shift should not come as a surprise—market internals have been weakening for some time.

We’re now seeing former leaders breaking down. For example:

--Bloom Energy came under heavy selling pressure on Friday.

Several technical violations occurred, including Stage 2 breakdown signals.

This is part of the reason the percentage of stocks under pressure has surged.

Former Leaders Rolling Over
Several major leaders now appear to be entering Stage 3 topping patterns.

Palantir
Palantir looks increasingly toppy. While it may eventually form a new base, the stock has broken below its 200-day moving average and rallied back toward it—often a location where short setups emerge.

Historically, many former leaders decline up to 70% after secular tops. That doesn’t necessarily mean Palantir has topped permanently, but it reinforces the need for patience.

Nvidia
Nvidia also appears to be transitioning into Stage 3 behavior. The powerful relative strength that characterized its leadership phase has faded.

Money has rotated aggressively away from these mega-cap leaders.

Market Cycles
Cycle analysis still suggests strength through May, followed by seasonal weakness during the summer months and into early fall.

If the geopolitical situation stabilizes quickly, the market could recover sharply in a V-shaped rebound.

However, a longer period of volatility might actually be healthier, allowing sentiment to reset and excess speculation to wash out.

Trading Environment
Right now:

--Setups are scarce
--Volatility is elevated
--Breakouts are unreliable

Even strong setups are likely to whipsaw traders in this environment.

When conditions look like this, the best strategy is simple:
--Cash is king.
--Patience and capital preservation are paramount until conditions improve.

What I’m Watching Next
For a healthier market environment, I want to see:

--Sentiment become more pessimistic
--Traders become skeptical of new setups
--Quality bases begin forming again

Interestingly, over 90% of major stock market winners begin their moves when sentiment is extremely negative and traders distrust the setups. We’re not there yet. But that’s what we’ll be watching for.

Final Thoughts
The market is under pressure, but there is no clear evidence of a structural bear market yet.

--Be patient
--Protect capital
--Wait for the next wave of proper setups

When volatility rises and the tape deteriorates, the smartest move is often to do nothing at all.
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[Kevin Weatherly @KevinWeatherly]

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[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

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[Kevin Weatherly @KevinWeatherly]

@BadlandsTOJ Is it me, or is this chart getting to feel like a yearly thing…

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

The bears on this platform will look at anything negatively.

Yet they ignore the facts:

The Fed is increasing liquidity ✅
Seasonality is now in the strongest part of the year✅
Inflation just surprised to the downside✅
The BOJ event passed and was less hawkish✅
New Fed Chief next year will be ultra dovish✅
November markets corrected -6-8% and December already corrected -4-6% ✅

ATH’s are next

But yeah, let’s slap some lines on a chart and spread negative cheer.
🤷‍♂️

Happy Holidays from CSC 🎅

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[Kevin Weatherly @KevinWeatherly]

@RichCimini Good article, appreciate it, sir.

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Now that the budget bill has passed Congress, we can see what the projections look like for deficits, government debt, and debt service expenses. In brief, the bill is expected to lead to spending of about $7 trillion a year with inflows of about $5 trillion a year, so the debt, which is now about 6x of the money taken in, 100 percent of GDP, and about $230,000 per American family, will rise over ten years to about 7.5x the money taken in, 130 percent of GDP, and $425,000 per family. That will increase interest and principal payments on the debt from about $10 trillion ($1 trillion in interest, $9 trillion in principal) to about $18 trillion (of which $2 trillion is interest payments), which will lead to either a big squeezing out (and cutting off) of spending and/or unimaginable tax increases, or a lot of printing and devaluing of money and pushing interest rates to unattractively low levels. This printing and devaluing is not good for those holding bonds as a storehold of wealth, and what’s bad for bonds and US credit markets is bad for everyone because the US Treasury market is the backbone of all capital markets, which are the backbones of our economic and social conditions. Unless this path is soon rectified to bring the budget deficit from roughly 7% of GDP to about 3% by making adjustments to spending, taxes, and interest rates, big, painful disruptions will likely occur.