Simon Kubitsky

Project Manager | Senior Project Engineer

[Wimar.X @DefiWimar]

The exact plan for the 2026 Bitcoin cycle:

Bitcoin is preparing for the final dump before $200K

The bear market is already 75% done.

And BTC is still following the exact path I warned about:

$73K → $68K → $62K → $50K → $200K

Next stops are simple:

→ $60K dump

→ Bear market bottom in September

Most people will panic here.

That is exactly where the real opportunity starts.

I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.

Follow and turn notifications on.

I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

[Klarck @0xklarck]

🚨 $BTC IS CLOSING IN ON A MAJOR ACCUMULATION ZONE...

Every major BTC cycle runs same playbook - euphoric blow-off top, then a capitulation flush into macro bottom:

• 2013 ATH → 2015: -86.9%
• 2017 ATH → 2018: -84.1%
• 2021 ATH → 2022: -77.5%
• 2025 ATH → 2026: already -47% and bleeding...

Tune out noise & follow data - turn on notifs, I'll update

[Chiefy @0xChiefy]

Bitcoin just entered the FINAL bull trap of this cycle.

Most people think the worst is over.

That's exactly what they believed before every major capitulation.

Right now, Bitcoin is following the same setup we've seen in every cycle.

One last dump.

One last wave of panic.

One last transfer of wealth from weak hands to patient holders.

$67K → $50K → $44K → $38K

Then the next bull run begins.

I called Bitcoin's 2022 bottom before the crowd believed it.

I called the 2025 top while everyone was still celebrating a new ATH.

Follow and turn notifications on.

The next call will be posted here first.

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

✅ below 200w moving average (black line)
🔳 below realized price (grey line $53k) ...

[Plan C @TheRealPlanC]

New Bitcoin Floor Model!

Simple and elegant.

Equal-weighted average of BTC's lifetime SMA, single EMA, double EMA (DEMA), triple EMA (TEMA), and quadruple EMA (QEMA), then plot a ±10% band around that average.

Upper band ×1.1 = $57,112
Lower band ×0.9 = $46,728

[bee🐝 @0xbeehive]

$BTC HAS THREE RULES IN A BEAR MARKET

It's easy:

Rule 1 - Bear market lasts minimum 350 days
Rule 2 - The bottom never forms without touching MA 350
Rule 3 - Price always drops further than anyone expect

Good news: By the timeline we're already 65% through the bear cycle

But the price is still at $80,000. And the 350-day moving average is at $47,000 - completely untouched

Not worried though. There are too many things working against this bullish moment right now. The flush is coming. It always does

When MA 350 gets tagged - that's when I'll be the loudest bull in the room

FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

According to the average Bitcoin Bear Market time (391 days), the bear market is at 55% complete. We're 216 days in.

The lowest drawdown point is still -52%, about 25% higher than the previous cycle.

So, in a cycle that has shown no signs of changing, we are still not close to typical bear market drawdown percentages and are only a little over halfway through.

The business cycle narrative is back on the rise despite the clear failure late last year, which projected new highs for BTC. This is paired with bottom calls and claims the Havling Cycles Theory is dead... again.

Let's see what happens!

[ardizor 🧙‍♂️ @ardizor]

THIS $BTC PATTERN SHOULD SCARE YOU

Bear markets last ~406 days on average
Bull markets last ~1,064 days
We are 210 days into this one

But the crowd is already calling the bottom

They do this every single cycle

It never ends well for them

Turn on notifications - next update drops soon

[Plan C @TheRealPlanC]

🚨 Important Point: Bitcoin

Let me remind you again, like I said two months ago.

Bitcoin has NEVER had its FULL, complete bull market EVER while the PMI was below 50 the whole time.

It's wild that people honestly think Bitcoin will correct 50% from here...

It's not 2015, people. We're talking about a completely different asset.

Bitcoin also doesn't follow the 4-year cycle. It never has. It has always followed the business cycle, and once again it is.

Like clockwork.

[Plan C @TheRealPlanC]

Bitcoin is about to go through its first supercycle: from $16,000 to $250,000+.

The cycle began Nov 2022 at the $16,000 bear market low.

The first peak was $126,000 and the mid-cycle low was $60,000.

The next cycle peak will land in the second half of 2027 to the first half of 2028, and I would be surprised to see anything less than $250,000 at the supercycle top.

[DANNY @Danny_Crypton]

Mark my words:

$BTC will fill the $82K CME gap.

100%.

And when it happens…

Over $10 BILLION in shorts will get liquidated.

That’s the TRAP.

Everyone will call it a breakout.

Everyone will think the bull market is back.

But bulls won’t like what comes next.

This move is not the end.

It’s the setup.

For the record:

I’ve studied macro for 10 years and called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.

Follow and turn notifications on.

I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

[𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽 @nobrainflip]

$BTC almost 78k.

Don’t confuse a bounce with a bottom.

[₿itMara @indiansunrise00]

Bitcoin’s macro channel view is interesting.

But the Bitcoin Power Law model shows the same structure.

Using my chart here 👇
Every major cycle bottom returns to the Power Law support band 🔺
2019 ✔️
2020 crash ✔️
2022 ✔️
Now price is touching that area again.

Different models… same message.

Bitcoin keeps respecting its long-term mathematical growth curve.

#Bitcoin $MARA #MARA #BTC

[Documenting Saylor @saylordocs]

BITCOIN HAS BOTTOMED EXACTLY 23 MONTHS AFTER THE ATH IN EVERY CYCLE.

WE ARE SITTING AT MONTH 23 RIGHT NOW.

THIS PATTERN HAS NEVER FAILED 🚀

[Bit Paine ⚡️ @BitPaine]

This has been my belief for some time. We never really got above the fair value of the power law. No true euphoria phase.

We ground out of a brutal bear market and set a nominal new high, but did not have a traditional bull market.

This would suggest we are as deeply oversold now as we were overbought at the peak of 2021 euphoria.

Selling here is likely as illogical and maladjusted for risk as buying was when rock JPEGs were being sold for $500,000.

[Merlijn The Trader @MerlijnTrader]

BITCOIN JUST BROKE ITS OWN CYCLE MODEL.

ATH before the halving
has never happened before.

That compresses the cycle
to 700–800 days.

Which places the bottom window
around July–August.

If history rhymes…

Buying here may feel like
buying $22K last cycle.

Most people will wait for confirmation.

By then, price is gone.

[Plan C @TheRealPlanC]

🚨 Important Point: Bitcoin

Bitcoin has NEVER had its FULL, complete bull market EVER while the PMI was below 50 the whole time.

Which really begs the question: was what happened over the last few years really a true bull market?

Sminston coined the term "quasi bull market," and I think that is accurate.

We have discussed this on the Bitcoin Uncharted weekly show.

We had a bull market from a price standpoint; you could technically call it that, but with bear market backdrop conditions.

Hence, we had a quasi bull market, or prelude bull market.

The full bull market is still to come.

[Gert van Lagen @GertvanLagen]

$BTC Bump-and-Run pattern -- Update

Strong breakout above green trend.

Validation: successful break above trend + retest. Invalidation: break below $60k.

[Quinten | 048.eth @QuintenFrancois]

I’m literally shaking

[Gert van Lagen @GertvanLagen]

#Bitcoin has rebounded from the lower trend line of the channel on the weekly close.

From here, my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel, completing wave (5) of ⑤ at ~$400k.