Lavan Pathmanathan

Sharing ideas about AI, equities, Bitcoin, real estate, and bond markets.

Not giving out any financial advice, just my opinions.

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

@canada_spends We need at least 1 magnitude, and perhaps 2 magnitudes higher. But this is a good start.

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

The 34-50 EMA ribbon on the weekly chart has acted as good support/resistance for $BTC for over 3.5 years now.

As such, we must wait for a break above, and then a re-test of the EMA ribbon before entering. The ribbon is at approximately $84,000 at the moment.

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

$BTC had a quick 1% drop after losing 75,000. Keep an eye on this one.

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

Within 18-24 months we should have LLMs good enough to be the final arbitrators for prediction market outcomes.

Until then, stay away from prediction markets.

[willo2 @willo2_Poly]

I was just scammed for $500K by Polymarket.

I am "willo2", the top holder of YES on "MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May 31st".

Here's what happened:

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

@ChizaramNelo If you're a baby and need UI hand-holding, Wealthsimple is best.

For any sort of Forex, Questrade is better.

IBKR is there for when we graduate to the big leagues.

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

That's the point. By the time $MTPLF has preferred shares out, $ASST will likely be past $MTPLF's 40K. Moreover, $MTPLF has an mNAV of 0.85 right now, and it will likely continue going down.

As such, when MARS and MERCURY come out, at that point, risk-adjusted $MTPLF is better. Right now $ASST is better.

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

@CernunnosCap First, $NBIS should figure out how to get their own power, then we can talk. Power is the ultimate bottleneck.

Secondly, when the US government subsidies and grants keep rolling out, it will go to true American companies like $IREN and $CRWV, not one with ex-Yandex employees.

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

@TheTechInvest The notional value of the options positions is $8.45B, the actual premium they paid is likely closer to $300-500 M. That would still be 8-10% of their portfolio, but not as significant as widely claimed.

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

That's an elite closer that would command $25 million/year.

People crying about 9.00 ERA don't know basic math.

The average MLB goes into the 9th inning with a lead of 2 runs or more in approximately 50 games over a season.

The average team also goes into the 9th with a lead of exactly 1 in approximately an additional 20 games over a season.

Having a reliever that can virtually guarantee you 50 wins is probably worth $25 million/season, especially since uncertainty is eliminated, that itself adds extra value. You would know the exact situation to best maximize this player and the situations to not use them.

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

1.4 GW would be around $15B/year at 100% operational capacity.

$15B revenue would be about a $100-125B market cap company.

This is not including the other 3.5 GW of power $IREN has. Or the 50% dilution shareholders will face over the next 2 years or so.

All-in-all, price should be around $200/share when Sweetwater is fully contracted and operating at 100%.

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

@cantonmeow Price only goes up when Dan hits the ATM. Dilute us, daddy!

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

@monster_models @Strategy @bitcoinquant_ @STRC_live @BitcoinForCorps Wow they are all getting very accurate. Amazing to see!

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

@BitcoinAIGuy $IREN finally beat $NBIS in something.
Our time will come.

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

I'm tired boss, I can't refresh anymore. Leopold needs to release the 13f soon. It might be easier to stare at the $CRWV chart than refresh EDGAR. It will be volatile after the release.

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

@Wishiwaselon 13f's don't give entry price, just the price of the asset at the end of the quarter.

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

@StrategyMaxi @trace_halvorson $8 billion for $MSTR raises market cap by less than 15%, $8 billion for $ASST is a 500% gain.

It's your call which is better risk-adjusted.

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

@matthughes13 KOSPI was flying high. Samsung makes up 25% of KOSPI. Samsung employees announced a strike. KOSPI fell, taking S&P futures down with it.

You can see it clearly in the chart below starting from around 8:30 pm ET last night.

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

@CynicalTrader82 @Hedgeye Inflation doesn't mean stocks fall. Inflation usually goes up during bull runs. Look at the 1970s and 1990s.

[Lavan Pathmanathan @LavanPath]

@askslim We will have small pullbacks and consolidation while the overall trend remains positive for another 2-3 years. Then we will get the big drop.

We are still super early in the AI boom, plenty of room to run. We haven't even seen the true benefits of AI in earnings reports yet.