Leo the Bayesian

The last Bayesian horse on Earth | Founder @DaedalusRsch

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

You just met me at a very Chinese time in my life. I randomly move YES and NO across different venues (via their junky API) to make my ends meet.

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

Next week is a big week for @DaedalusRsch.

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

@theCTO Hey @DaedalusRsch

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

@uhr3al Yeah ofc

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

Who want daedalus badge

[John Wang @j0hnwang]

only the OGs remember the prediction markets badge wars 🥀🥀

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

@0xsudogm @exolabs You should bet on @DaedalusRsch

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

@nemild @eightyhi @river_markets @ycombinator You know nothing about pred market

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

@MickBransfield IBKR should acquire @DaedalusRsch

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

@mattkalish You are totally wrong

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

@Rodairos Nope

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

@0xMims Not yet!

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

AURU AURU ARUR ARRR UUUU

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

Daedalus will beat them

[Oliver Knight @OKnightCrypto]

Quants are ditching crypto and hopping over to prediction markets.

https://t.co/hAvEtS5SRc

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

@airtightfish @ProofMarkets @Kalshi @Polymarket @dschwarz26 Gproofmarket

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

Template for xxx

[smac @0xsmac]

there’s no actual value accrual for vvv

the only sustainable economic link is the programmatic burn which is effectively zero - it’s $2/$5/$10 of vvv burned per NEW sub (pro / pro+ / max). there’s no programmatic burn for ongoing subs so it’s a onetime pymt only on new subs. it captures economic value just for new signups one time. the $18 / $68 / $200 monthly rev doesn’t go to the token. conservatively speaking they’d need to add 10-25x of its current paid sub acquisition rate just to offset emissions

the discretionary buyback can be terminated any time (it’s just trust me bro)

vvv captures imo 5-10% of revenue with the rest going to equity (equity biz prob p good tbh) but even if you take the recent delphi (optimistic imo) 12mo forward target of $260M ARR, at 5% capture that’s $13M/yr in buy pressure which provides little support for the existing valuation + emissions

you’re basically relying on team to juice discretionary buybacks and imo if that were really their intention then part of the recurring monthly sub rev would be going to programmatic burn. i don’t buy the “we are in growth mode so we don’t want to burn token” — don’t do it all then

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

@probabilitygod Paradigm idea

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

@richardchen39 No introspection🤣

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

@senri_xyz @j0hnwang Chatted with your venture arm but never heard back🤣

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

@hthieblot Bayesian

[Leo the Bayesian @Leothebayesian]

Traders always know where the top is

[Andrew Kang @Rewkang]

@MarketsAlpha Damn I pivoted to robotics years ago and people are still mistagging wallets as mine