Martin

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨 EVERYTHING THAT COULD GO WRONG FOR MARKETS WENT WRONG TODAY.

S&P 500 down -1.65%, wiping out $1.14 trillion.
Nasdaq down -2.60%, wiping out $1.11 trillion.
Gold down -3.38%, wiping out $1 trillion.
Silver down -6.9%, wiping out $280 billion.
Bitcoin down -6.31%, wiping out $80 billion.

In total $2.5 TRILLION wiped out in a single session. These were not isolated moves. Everything started breaking at the same time.

It started with the jobs report this morning.

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May. Wall Street expected 88,000. That is almost double.

On any normal day, strong jobs is good news. But inflation is already at 3.8% and oil is sitting at $90. A labor market this strong tells the Fed it cannot cut interest rates and may actually need to raise them.

The probability of a rate hike this year went from 40% to 57% in a single day. That spooked every investor holding tech and growth stocks because higher rates mean those stocks are worth less today.

Then the AI trade started cracking.

Yesterday Broadcom reported record earnings: revenue up 48%, AI chip sales up 143% and the stock still crashed 12.6%. The reason was simple.

Broadcom did not raise its AI revenue targets for the year. Investors had expected it to. That single miss made people ask a question they had been avoiding for months: are we paying too much for AI stocks?

That question got louder today when a research firm called SemiAnalysis revealed that Nvidia's next-generation AI chips will need significantly less memory than everyone assumed, roughly half of what the market was pricing in.

Memory chips are what companies like SK Hynix and Samsung make. SK Hynix fell nearly 10% today. Samsung fell over 6%.

South Korea's entire stock market crashed 5.5% in a single session. Japan's semiconductor stocks did the same.

And then Anthropic added fuel to the fire by publishing a report warning that AI is getting close to the point where it can improve itself without human help and calling for a global pause in AI development.

Coming on the same day as the memory demand news and Broadcom's miss, it fed a single growing fear across the market: what if the AI boom is moving faster than the business models can keep up with?

Underneath all of this, there is a liquidity problem nobody is talking about.

SpaceX goes public next week at a $1.75 trillion valuation. Anthropic just filed to go public. OpenAI is next.

These three companies together are worth $4 to $5 trillion. Fund managers need cash to buy into these listings.

But cash levels are already at their lowest since early 2024. The only way to raise cash is to sell what they already own. That selling is happening right now.

The new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will also hold his very first policy meeting in 11 days. He was appointed by Trump with the expectation of cutting rates.

He is now walking into a situation where inflation is high, oil is high, and the job market is running hot. Investors do not know what he will do.

When nobody knows what the most powerful central banker in the world will decide in less than two weeks, the safest move is to reduce risk today.

Everything that could go wrong, went wrong at the same time. A hot jobs report, a collapsing ceasefire, a crack in the AI trade, a trillion dollar liquidity drain, and a Fed meeting with no clear outcome.

[Martin @LongnWait]

@StockMKTNewz 53.50 in 6 months time

[Martin @LongnWait]

@IncomeSharks @Nebraskangooner @Drake015264122 It's not what people expect I assure you as it's not what I expected.

[Martin @LongnWait]

@marcovonchmiel @CryptoMikli Some people have an issue where their liver cannot process alcohol well, so they get intoxicated very fast and alcohol stays in their system for a longer time.

[Five Points Capital @fivepointscap]

Druckenmiller added 156k shares of Sea Limited $SE in Q1

[Martin @LongnWait]

@FIREDUpWealth So she will live for 19 years? On year 20 payments would exceed 1m which makes no mf sense

[Martin @LongnWait]

@WOLF_Financial Bro, skype turned into skype for business which turned into Teams and they wanted to expand that with discord acquisition... So this post is incorrect

[Martin @LongnWait]

@IncomeSharks @KunnuInvests It's amazing people still don't know these sales are planned ahead of time and it's not like the CEO woke up and chose violence lol

[Martin @LongnWait]

@StockMKTNewz Umm i see no change over here

[Yam Peleg @Yampeleg]

The dumbest person you know is being told 'you are absolutely right' by some LLM right now.

[ShortSeller @ShortSeller]

$SPY cash is a position....

[Martin @LongnWait]

@ecommerceshares They've been found guilty in social media addiction trial

[Martin @LongnWait]

@iDanielTran @AdamoMancino @cperruna Wow arguing with the market? If you have a 10 year horizon and a stock is down badly despite fundamentals, you're saying wait until stock improves, instead of buying lower? I see your point but why insist on TA when clearly the person in front of u only cares about fundamentals

[Ophir Gottlieb @OphirGottlieb]

$DOCN @digitalocean

DOCN upsizes stock sale to ~$800M.

We have followed DigitalOcean long enough to know that this is not a company that earns the benefit of the doubt easily.

For years the debate was whether it could hold customers as they scaled.

That debate is over.

The large stock sale totaling over 10% of the company’s market cap has been digested, thus far, very well, with the stock up on the day in the face of a dilution.

And why is it up? Because the market sees the demand and growth trajectory from just 30MW of data center capacity and it wants more.

More growth. More cash flow. More $1M+ customers.

A cohort that grew ARR 133% last quarter and revenue 123% with 0% churn.

This is the loudest, direct read from the market: people believe.

Let’s see if they are right to, because we sure do too.

We see growth expanding, and doing so for several years.

Zero percent churn in the $1 million plus cohort for a full year changes the structure of the business.

This is not a GPU landlord story.

It is not a venture funded training bubble story.

It is a vertically integrated inference cloud story with real customers, real workloads, real unit economics, and real free cash flow.

If the software layer compresses in an AI world, the durable value shifts to where intelligence runs, scales, stores memory, and connects to the rest of the application stack.

That is exactly where DigitalOcean is positioning itself.

We do not see a perfect path. Capacity execution must stay tight. Margins will fluctuate as new facilities ramp. Competition will remain intense.

But the direction of travel is unmistakable.

Thanks for reading, friends.

The author is long DOCN at the time of this writing.

[Martin @LongnWait]

@Xibo_007 @FromValue You can buy fractional shares, that is what i do.

[NIK @ns123abc]

🚨 MICROSOFT ABOUT TO SUE OPENAI & AMAZON

>be microsoft
>invest $1B in openai
>gets exclusive azure cloud deal
>invest another $10B+
>gets rights to 49% of profits +IP
>Azure goes brrrrrr

>Altman lies to board, quietly launches ChatGPT
>board fires him for being a lying manipulative snake
>Satya goes to war for Altman. saves his entire career
>Altman retvrns in 5 days
>immediately purges everyone who purged him
>full control. no oversight. thanks Satya!

>fast forward to 2025
>OpenAI restructures from non-profit to PBC
>MSFT $13.8B is now worth $135B. 10x return
>plus 27% of OpenAI
>but gives up cloud exclusivity + profit share
>KEEPS API clause
>all API calls contractually MUST route through Azure
>Satya thinks life is good lol

>5 months later
>Sam Altman becomes strong enough to betray you
>"raises $110B round"
>doesn't need satya daddy's money anymore
>announces $50B deal with AMAZON
>$138B in AWS cloud commitments

>amazon and openai claim they built some cope called a "Stateful Runtime Environment"
>Microsoft lawyers hmmm
>Altman: it's not what it looks like. i can totally explain

>so it's technically not an API call because it's "stateful"
>and it's a... "Runtime Experience"
>totally di!erent thing
>pls ignore the TCP packets lol

>Microsoft engineers look at the SRE architecture
>"THIS IS NOT TECHNICALLY POSSIBLE without violating the contract."

*Satya finds out he's been cucked*

Microsoft exec literally tells FT: "We know our contract. We will sue them if they breach it."

>AWS quietly gives employees a memo on which words are legally safe lmao
>can say: "powered by" or "enabled by" or "integrates with" OpenAI
>cannot say: "enables access to" or "calls on" ChatGPT
>also cannot suggest frontier models are "available on AWS"

Microsoft: "If Amazon and OpenAI want to take a bet on the creativity of their contractual lawyers, I would back us, not them."

Scam Altman strikes AGAIN.

[Martin @LongnWait]

@ShortSeller Lmao do it

[Martin @LongnWait]

@__Wait_for_it_ @StockMarketNerd Lmao

[Martin @LongnWait]

@ShortSeller 2.5k is about 10% of my total invested cash. I simply can't afford it, though I know you'll make it worth it