@AdamoMancino $INVZ It seem so: "Innoviz sees an over 150,000 LiDAR unit opportunity in this program. Mobileye's initial fleet is targeted for deployment in 2027, scaling to 17,000 vehicles over the following 5 years"
@AlbertAlan $CLOV He always does this, he has to say the opposite of what will actually happen. It's very positive for Clover and the future profits. #InverseCramer
@SSLINGSHOTT@AlbertAlan $CLOV Yes, it's an old video from January 2025, but it I think that will age badly in a few years. Look at what it said about Tesla, do you see differences?
$INVZ I am long again.
Valuation Analysis: Realizing the $6.9B Order BookTo determine the potential share price if Innoviz successfully converts its order book into realized revenue, the numbers can be evaluated using a structured valuation template, focusing on both a Price-to-Sales multiple and a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model.Base AssumptionsTotal Projected Revenue: $6.9 billion.Time Horizon: 10 years (the typical lifecycle of an automotive platform), averaging $690 million in annual revenue once production is fully ramped.Current Shares Outstanding: ~214 million.Current Stock Price: ~$0.64 (translating to a market cap of roughly $138 million).Scenario A: Price-to-Sales (P/S) MultipleIf Innoviz matures into a consistent tier-1 hardware and software supplier generating $690 million annually, the market would likely value it using an industry-standard revenue multiple.Assumed P/S Multiple: 3x (a conservative blend for auto-tech hardware/software).Implied Market Cap: $690 million $\times$ 3 = $2.07 billion.Estimated Share Price: $2.07 billion / 214 million shares = ~$9.67 per share.Scenario B: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) ModelA DCF model provides the present value of those future earnings. This assumes Innoviz scales effectively and turns a reliable profit on that realized revenue.$$PV = \sum_{t=1}^{n} \frac{CF_t}{(1+r)^t} + \frac{TV}{(1+r)^n}$$Assumed Free Cash Flow (FCF) Margin: 15% (optimistic for a scaled manufacturing business), yielding $103.5 million in annual FCF. Discount Rate (WACC): 12% (reflecting the high risk and volatility of the LiDAR sector).Terminal Growth Rate: 3%.Calculated Present Value: Using these inputs over a 10-year period along with a terminal value, the present enterprise value of the firm lands at approximately $1.35 billion.Estimated Share Price: $1.35 billion / 214 million shares = ~$6.30 per share.All-Time High & Current StatusAt the current price of ~$0.64, the stock is trading roughly 95% below its all-time high of $14.29. The market is currently pricing in immense risk, heavily discounting the likelihood that the full $6.9 billion will be collected without severe delays or execution https://t.co/UfRO0XwoLx reach an "80% off" its all-time high status, the stock would need to hit a target of $2.85. If the company successfully ramps production and begins converting this $6.9 billion projection into actual quarterly cash flow, the stock has the mathematical runway to comfortably surpass that $2.85 mark and approach the $6.00 to $9.00 valuation ranges outlined above.
@Rakeraloha@NickelDimerBets I didn't use the absolute low. I based it on the CEO's $0.87 share sale (code F) and the max upside in following months. Even at current price, it's still +150%.
The $CLOV ticker is going to come across a lot of people's feeds in the next year+ and most will instantly scroll by because they associate @CloverHealth with:
1. @chamath
2. "Failed" SPAC
3. Hindenburg Report
4. Bankruptcy
5. Shrinking revenue
But all of those associations are from the past and hold zero relevance to the company today.
If those people would take the time to dig in today, they would find:
1. FY2026 forecasting first full year of GAAP profitability
2. Clover MA plan has had the #1 HEDIS scores in the country two years in a row
3. @counterparthlth rapidly hiring post sales roles, many concentrated in the southern Gulf Region of the US
4. Kevin Holub, CPO at Counterpart, presented last week at HIMSS26 alongside Amy Gleason (CMS and DOGE) showcasing TEFCA compliant real-time interoperability
5. Clover subtly changed financial reporting starting in 2026 to focus on "Consolidated Gross Profit" instead of simply Insurance Revenue or BER
@VivekGaripalli has been posting on X consistently for the past year, telling the public that Clover Health is the most important AI company in Healthcare and hinting that the re-rating is coming.
The masses that have written off Clover will have a lot of catching up to do once they realize that the old narrative simply does not fit the current trajectory of the business.
$CLOV
1) Congratulations โ๏ธ
2)As I argued in some previous posts, I think weโre approaching a phase of strong revaluation of the stock๐
3) Tag @Barry8615 and @Shpend1320650 let them know!๐คฃ
When we were a private company, I would send an update quarterly to investors. I would end it with the following:
As stated in prior updates, our strategy remains the same:
1) Scale Clover Assistant
2) Drive more value through Clover Assistant
3) Continue to lower the cost of our plans, drive more plan flexibility, and add additional benefits
4) Keep repeating 1-3 :)
[END]
Our strategy remains the same.
Note: Please don't share as we want to keep this strategy a secret
$CLOV Nothing is impossible, especially if SaaS works out.
Scenarios can change, there are many examples of companies that dropped around 90% over 5 years, only to be revalued later.๐๐ป