MACRO / EQUITY INDICES
SpaceX IPO, the possible beginning of the end for the Iran war, and plummeting oil prices. All of that points to an interesting but messy Friday.
Starting with the Iran deal, the most important thing is to put your opinions to the side and focus on price action across assets. From a market perspective, this deal is positive across asset classes. Worrying about whether it is better or worse than past administrations is a meaningless exercise for trading. Have your feelings, but separate them from the trade.
You never need to buy an IPO. In fact, it usually makes no sense to do so. SpaceX looks very overvalued at the current valuation projections, and real price discovery will not happen until at least six months down the road. Once lockups are over and a few earnings reports are public, then we will get a better feel for what this actually is.
Since SpaceX will not be included in the S&P, that removes some of the fear around investors needing to sell existing holdings to make room. That fear is somewhat valid, but only to a minor degree. Unless you are trading deep in the weeds with complex arb trades, it should not affect the market much long term.
The overall health of the US has not changed much. Many companies are still overvalued, there is still froth in the chip and data center names, however sentiment flips are not something you want to step in front of. We have been bearish, but after these type of events you have to stop and re-evaluate.
Key momentum levels:
7495 - Above this, momentum flips back to bullish. If we get a weekly close above this level, bearish bets and correction calls need to be put on the back burner.
7402 - This is the near-term momentum level. Above it, the news is being respected and taken positively. Below it, risk needs to be tightened and we need to look for the next thing that will control the news cycle.
7329 - Below this would signal sell-the-news price action and a bearish flip into good news. Washout and major correction probabilities increase dramatically.
This was the most poignantly beautiful interview ever aired and reflects the true heart and soul of Joe Kernen @JoeSquawk@SquawkCNBC. Take a few moments to watch and restore your faith in the goodness of humanity and the blessing of living each day with gratitude. Iโm trying myself and witnessing something like this makes it real and inspiring and compelling.
Evercore's Roger Altman: I wouldn't be here today without Dr. Oz https://t.co/nXCSUgML0i
Almost a year after release, this book is still top-10 in Historical Study.
Check it out!
Are the mainstream media and academic narratives surrounding slavery, white flight, Native American pacifism, hippies, the Red Square, and the benefits of the sexual revolution for women...at all real?
Maybe not.
https://t.co/3kIPpSY9Tr.