Lunari

Building a library of businesses I want to own eventually.

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

ANT dropped the bomb. By my count, ARR is $69 billion in September and the pace of adds slowed to just ~$2bn/mth. We are going to need hell lot of acceleration to hit $110 billion.

https://t.co/Fgj8EiuSfI

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

@zippytop71 oh haha.

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

Victory lapping here.

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

Based on what I'm seeing. I think we see a meltdown in October for AI trade.

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

@zippytop71 Whatsup in November?

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

@SaaSletter @FundaAI Thats right. Thats what i calculated too.

https://t.co/U7xneQ49EG

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

TLDR; we will probably never get another ARR number from Anthropic, which is healthy. Should force the market to move away from extreme focus on Anthropic/OpenAI ARR numbers to hyperscale growth rates, which are a much better metric for AI at this point given they capture Muse, Grok, Gemini and Open-Source.

Anthropic FCF positive in Q3 and reaccelerating in October on Opus 5.5 per third party data. Roadshow in several weeks will happen after this has been widely confirmed. Unit economics much better than expected given positive FCF with 75% of their compute going to training. All per public reporting.

OpenAI continuing to grow at the same pace per Sarah Friar interview after they took share vs. Anthropic in Q3. Means the sum of Anthropic/OpenAI growth is accelerating from the Q3 pace. OpenAI probably hits FCF positive in the next few months.

Open-source growing much faster than either Anthropic or OpenAI. Modal tripled since May and is 15x YoY per yesterday’s announcement. Open-source tokens generate more revenue and profit for the hyperscalers/neoclouds than frontier tokens. *Every* open source inference cloud I am aware of is growing faster both sequentially and YoY than either Anthropic or OpenAI. And their combined compute spend is becoming material.

Third party data pointing to hyperscalers continuing to accelerate in Q3. All report in the next two weeks. Acceleration should continue in Q4 and Q1 as installed base of compute slowly reprices higher closer to spot and new capacity comes online at higher prices. Continued acceleration in hyperscalers should help address external funding concerns.

10 year yield down in a straight line over the last 24 hours.

Some risk of escalation in Iran next few days, but earnings and mid-terms probably outweigh taking an ultra long-term view and looking out 30 days.

Biggest risk imo remains cyber and OpenAI/Anthropic dominating the model layer. Fragmentation, competition and lower margins at the model layer are good for everyone else in the ecosystem and for America.

Slower for longer is much better than an overbuild and an actual bubble.

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

@mulamula7599921 @MF_Camillus @ani_agadah i literally wrote a substack to calculate ant is $69bn in sept haha

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

Alright. So where is the floor here. Semi numbers need to come down? In order to match the lack of LPS dynamic. Maybe the final boss is hypers cut capex?

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

True enough..

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

We going to get another wave when the europeans wake up. This is blood. Press your shorts guys.

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

@SamKovX But they were long $CHTR

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

@HedgeyeTech Yea. $68bn sounds right

https://t.co/VN9rqwktIs

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

@CryptoEthan Barely

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

@KryptonCEO yea not good enough

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

@realKunalAShah Haha but I'm not bearish AI to be fair. I love it. Makes my life so much easier and productive.

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

@tailrisked Huh. So we should take away the $10bn from previous month's ARR too? That is still a deceleration.

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

@NegativeAlp All I know is we need shit ton of acceleration

https://t.co/4a6jdn4SbU

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

@JerryCap Hahaha. The reset we need. Sad that my $V and $MA got hit too.

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

@DMTCapital Yea, we are not going to make it

https://t.co/4a6jdn4SbU

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

@MF_Camillus for ANT. OAI is lower.

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

@MF_Camillus lol I did. we are not going to get to $200bn at this pace.
we are at $69bn ARR in Sep. Was $65bn in July.

[Lunari @Lunari_Research]

@BarbarianCap I see tough comp in 2027 and bunch of those top few earnings go away. Maybe except $NVDA since it has access to LPS?