Marco Bruciati

I am peak oilers .Have a good extinction to all for 28 novembre 2028 non c'è un modo delicatoper dire alle persone che hanno dedicato la loro vitaa un illusione

[Marco Bruciati @MBruciati]

https://t.co/nsmf73L4Tn

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Can someone explain how media headlines about OpenAI’s ~$50B ARR…

(vs. ~$70B from incorrect accounting comparisons with Anthropic)

Somehow ends a 3-5 year laser shortage with $AAOI or memory shortage with $MU?

Hint: it doesn’t.

[Ricardo @Ric_RTP]

The proof that the AI bubble will "burst soon":

The world's biggest pension funds are selling the AI trade.

The list includes Australia's $260 billion Australian Retirement Trust, Canada's $388 billion La Caisse, and the UK's People's Pension, which cut its US share from 53% to 49%.

A survey of 430 institutions managing $5 trillion found a third of them plan to cut US exposure over the next year, twice as many as last year. Their reason was the same everywhere: More than a third of the S&P 500 is now a bet on the AI build-out.

The Nasdaq closed at a record the same day.

So when the most patient money on Earth sells, who's buying?

You are, and you're doing it on autopilot.

Here's how the machine works:

A huge share of retirement savings now sits in index funds, and an index fund buys by size. The bigger a stock gets, the more of it your fund owns. Even a fund labeled global puts about 64% of your money in US stocks, because that's how big they've gotten.

It can't decide a stock looks expensive. It can't decide a third of its money in one trade is too much. So it keeps buying whatever got bigger, every paycheck, forever.

That means two kinds of retirement money now sit on opposite sides of the same trade:

The first kind has a professional in charge, someone paid to study valuations and step back when the risk looks wrong. That money is pulling away from AI. The second kind is yours.

Nobody is deciding anything for it. It runs on a default setting, and the default setting says buy more of whatever already went up.

So the pensions get to sell to a buyer that can't say no. Every bubble needs a greater fool, and this one built the fool straight into us.

And the timing makes it worse...

Anthropic is reportedly lining up a mid-November listing at around $2 trillion, raising as much as $100 billion, which would be the biggest stock sale in history. The most careful buyers on Earth are stepping back right before the largest supply of AI stock ever hits the market. Someone HAS to absorb it.

The pensions say they're simply rebalancing and still believe in AI, and maybe the boom keeps running. But notice WHO gets to rebalance.

A professional can trim when prices look stretched. Your fund doesn't have that button.

I think this is the most overlooked setup in the market right now.

The greater fool used to be a person. Now it's the default setting on retirement accounts...

[Roger @rdd147]

Stage of Ai bubble.

$ORCL credit is so bad that the company is now exploring leasing GPUs to lease to OpenAi who can’t afford the lease unless they can raise 4x their annual revenue ($200 billion) a year.

The lies and fraud are horrendous. OpenAI was gifted $100 billion of equity for free $AMD chips but had nowhere to put them.

[Ross Hendricks @Ross__Hendricks]

OpenAI will go down as the Enron of 2027

Mark it

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The Nasdaq 100 extends losses to -1.5% on the day as oil prices rise and OpenAI’s annualized revenue comes in $20 billion below expectations.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Oracle stock, $ORCL, falls over -5% after OpenAI tells investors that its annualized revenue is $20 billion less than expected.

[Nic @puckrin]

That has NEVER happened before.

Fuel now costs double the price of crude oil.

Crude has always driven product prices.

That relationship has now broken down.

Refining capacity outside China is short.

Russian refineries are being hit.

Middle East export refineries are shut.

So the price at the pump is no longer about oil.

It is about everything after the oil.

[OttoFriedel @OttoFriedel]

Bis Ende 2026 hat 🇩🇪

ca. 70 Mrd. Euro CO2 Steuer

eingenommen. Die wurden dann in die Ukraine geschleust damit dort das CO2 ausgestossen wird , welches wir einsparen.

Irre, oder?

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

"There aren't many more inventories to drain in the West. We drained the available inventory."
-Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol

[Juan Real Street @eris_28]

Brutal: El Niño Godzilla aumentó la temperatura del Océano Pacífico casi un grado y medio respecto al último récord en estas fechas y 3,4 grados Celsius respecto a la media amarilla.

[Juan Real Street @eris_28]

Todos mirando a Francia, pero telita Reino Unido

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Rate-sensitive sectors are breaking down ever since Warsh hiked rates.

The Fed is trying to fight an oil-driven inflation shock by crushing domestic demand.

Now the damage from higher rates is increasingly showing up in the private sector.

[Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson]

Breaking News!
Code UFB!!!

For the first time in recorded history, the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) is above 30.0°C, reaching a preliminary SST of 30.06°C on October 5th.

The Niño 3.4 SST anomaly is now 3.41°C above the 1991-2020 baseline.

Everything is not fine.

[Juan Real Street @eris_28]

El nuevo brote de peste es 100 veces más mortal que COVID.
Olvida las tecnológicas, compra papeleras.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The physical crude oil market is out of control.

The cost to ship 2 million barrels of crude oil from West Africa to China is now up to $27.22/barrel.

To put this into perspective, in July, the cost for the same shipment ~$6.50/barrel.

That's a +319% surge in shipping costs in just over 2 months.

The scramble for physical crude inventories is in full-swing.

[Juan Real Street @eris_28]

La petrolera estatal Saudi Aramco activa la voz de alarma tras advertir que las reservas globales de crudo se encuentran en niveles extraordinariamente bajos, estimando que el mercado necesitaría un periodo de hasta dos años para restablecerlos.
https://t.co/KzotYjiH3a

[Qasem Al-Ali @AlaliQasem]

Amin H. Nasser, President and CEO of Saudi Aramco:

📍Less than 6 billion barrels remain from global commercial inventories, and most of it is practically unavailable

[Juan Real Street @eris_28]

China cierra cientos de bancos

[Marco Bruciati @MBruciati]

@ekwufinance What Will miss before? Helium?

[Marco Bruciati @MBruciati]

@eris_28 Now start last part of collapse. The faster part