Andrzej Szczepaniak

Sell-side European economist. Ex Barclays/ESM/ECB **My views only**
#Economics PhD @UGentFEB. Interested in #globalmacro #macroeconomics #inflation #monetary.

[Andrzej Szczepaniak @MacroMoneyTrade]

@fwred @CrisisStudent The weakness in services inflation is largely due to two components if you look at the countries that provide granular details - it's airfares and accommodation services.

[Andrzej Szczepaniak @MacroMoneyTrade]

@Eurostar Why is there such chaos in Paris? Many people on the 6.57 aren't through the gates yet

[Andrzej Szczepaniak @MacroMoneyTrade]

@EurostarUK what's happening in Paris?

[Andrzej Szczepaniak @MacroMoneyTrade]

Mice get killed in mouse traps at all ages, old and young alike.

[Daniel Priestley @DanielPriestley]

Mice get killed in mouse traps because they do not understand why the cheese is free.

At age 16 …
- your entire survival depends upon handouts,
- your psychological safety is built on simple ideologies
- most adults you interact with are government employees
- you’re hard wired to appeal to authority

So theres little chance of understanding the deep flaws in state control and big government.

[Daniel Kral @DanielKral1]

The price of emitting one ton of carbon by the power sector in 2025:

🇪🇺 €75
🇨🇳 €10
🇮🇳 €0
🇺🇸 €0

Carbon pricing would be a more effective climate policy if all major polluters signed up and the price mechanism was standardized. Now it's one martyr and many free-riders.

[ian bremmer @ianbremmer]

european tourism to the united states: freefalling

[Mark J. Perry @Mark_J_Perry]

Reversing a 75-year trend of lower tariff rates, Team Trump's tariffs are expected to take tariff rates to 8.4% this year, the highest since 1948.

Reminder: There is NO example in the history of advanced economies when sweeping tariffs had the positive effects the protectionist Trump team believes are waiting for us on the other side of this tariff push and trade war. Not. One.

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

Time to buy German tech stocks?

h/t @HolgerSandte

[Chris Whittall @Chris_Whittall]

Good morning

We wrote about 10-year German swap spreads turning negative for the first time in history

What's driving it and why it matters 🧵

https://t.co/rgMPY5dbF0

[Andrzej Szczepaniak @MacroMoneyTrade]

@stevehouf @MichaelAArouet It's a nice scapegoat, but no, it's not solely attributable to the Euro.

[Next Gen Tories @NextGenTories]

“Britain is gloomy, poor and highly taxed. Young people are packing their bags”

The social contact between young and old is broken. The young pay in more, get less, and are made poorer by NIMBYism.

Until it’s fixed UK brain drain will only get worse.

https://t.co/NA1PtTqusT

[Vincent Vicard @VVicard]

Well, actually both the EU and US are more dependent on China today than in 2019.
Assessing import dependencies requires to go beyond the concentration of imports. This @CEPII_Paris policy brief 👇 shows that using a more comprehensive measure provides richer picture.

[Andrzej Szczepaniak @MacroMoneyTrade]

@MrMBrown But are risks to the downside or upside ? 😂

[Globelynx @Globelynx]

'#Markets are pricing for inflation to fall below the @ecb's 2% target as of September'
@Nomura's @MacroMoneyTrade shares on the latest #Eurozone #inflation figures.

#GlobelynxConnects #GlobelynxVOD

[Oliver Rakau @OliverRakau]

The most sophisticated way of extracting CPI implications from today's ESI details continues to point to core inflation momentum easing towards 2% by year-end.

[Menthor Q @MenthorQpro]

🚨Household allocations to stocks are near record high

[Andrzej Szczepaniak @MacroMoneyTrade]

@w_washtrades @ecb @Isabel_Schnabel @Lagarde @Austan_Goolsbee Lol

[Oliver Rakau @OliverRakau]

An update of Germany's trade balance in chemicals and broader energy-intensive products with H1 data shows surpluses that are LARGER than pre-pandemic in nominal and real terms. Weak imports play a key role, but exports have remained resilient despite weak production --> GVA up?

[Andrzej Szczepaniak @MacroMoneyTrade]

@CrisisStudent @OliverRakau I should caveat the above is for the EA aggregate. But similar if not more adverse outlook for Germany.

[Andrzej Szczepaniak @MacroMoneyTrade]

@CrisisStudent @OliverRakau So real wage growth I'm forecasting 1.2% YoY in Q2 after 2.1% in Q1, and versus an average of 1% per quarter during 2019. But real incomes are materially squeezed in level terms relative to pre-Covid, after 10 quarters of negative real growth (avg of -3.3% per quarter).