Marius Clemens

Economist | Macro & Migration, Fiscal policy, Macro & Inequality | former @diw_berlin @BSE_Berlin @Cepa_unipotsdam | views are my own

[Tommaso Monacelli @monacelt]

Should monetary policy "look-through" the current energy price shock?

➡️Old debate: energy shocks are "temporary" in nature. Central banks should look them through

➡️We argue in our work that the look-through doctrine does not hold when *supply chain uncertainty * is elevated👇

[Gabriel Zucman @gabriel_zucman]

It has become received wisdom in Brussels and Washington that there is a new “euro-sclerosis”: that the EU economy is lagging the US

This view is wrong

A little primer on the measurement of productivity – and why reports of the economic death of Europe are greatly exaggerated🧵

[Ahmad Lashkaripour @ALashkaripour]

Our paper on the long-term effects of Trump 2.0 tariffs is published in the JIE (open access link below).

TLDR: While tariffs may deliver short-term revenues & welfare gains for the US, the long-term cost of undermining global cooperation is enormous.

A thread on key results🧵

[The Review of Economic Studies @RevEconStudies]

Recently accepted to #REStud, "Demand Shocks as Technology Shocks," from Bai, Ríos-Rull and Storesletten:

https://t.co/BIrOLcZehe

#econtwitter

[Alberto Cavallo @albertocavallo]

While the USTR tariff calculator cites the findings from Cavallo, Gopinath, Neiman & Tang (2021) it is not entirely clear how they use our findings. Based on our research, the elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs is closer to 1. If that figure were used instead of 0.25, the implied reciprocal tariffs would come out about four times smaller.

[Gina Pieters, PhD @ProfPieters]

This type of error is why people need to learn macro. The general equilibrium (and exchange rate effects!) are *not* small for a policy of this scope. The assumptions that lead to this formula are not satified, so this formula cannot be used for the stated goal.

[Tommaso Monacelli @monacelt]

📣New working paper: "Tariffs and Monetary Policy"

⏺️I study the effects of tariffs in a workhorse New Keynesian open economy model

⏺️ Key insight: the effect of tariffs depends crucially on the endogenous behavior of monetary policy
#econtwitter
👇

[Claus Michelsen @ClausMichelsen]

Auch wenn augenblicklich andere Dinge im Vordergrund stehen: Das #Jahresgutachten der #Wirtschaftsweisen des @SVR_Wirtschaft von @AchimTruger @GrimmVeronika @MartinWerding @umalmend & @MonikaSchnitzer et al. ist lesenswert. https://t.co/5IYYhbTwUN🧵

[Luca Fornaro @LucaFornaro3]

New paper on Fiscal Stimulus with Supply Constraints https://t.co/v9uqsB5Iyc

Main idea: fiscal stimulus has a large impact on inflation when firms cannot increase output due to technological supply constraints.

Paper is preliminary, comments are welcome

[International and Monetary Economics Network @int_mon_econ]

Interesting and important article: "Why Labor Supply Matters for Macroeconomics" by Richard Rogerson in the Journal of Economic Perspectives.

"In this paper, I argue that labor supply indeed matters for macroeconomics..."

https://t.co/FnaBufnkWW

[Britta Gehrke @gehrke_b]

📢We're hiring. #EconTwitter 📢 Come and join us on a tenure track position in econometrics (with focus on macroeconometrics and/or data science). Great team, great city @BSE_Berlin @FU_Berlin. Happy to answer questions. Deadline March 7!

https://t.co/BlbcoMpOn5

[Jasper Tjaden @JasperTjaden]

Unique @OECD study by @liebig_thomas funded by @BMAS_Bund among high-skilled migrants interested in Germany (via @MakeitinGermany) shows important results on why Germany struggles to attract work migrants....

🧵

[NBER @nberpubs]

Inequality matters for business cycles: it amplifies aggregate fluctuations because the middle class saves more in recessions to self-insure against large income drops, from @FlorinBilbiie, @gprimice, and @tamba_NYC https://t.co/In5PNE1YIO

[Fabio Ghironi @FabioGhironi]

And another important paper in the current @AEAjournals AEJ: Macro is this one by Chris Erceg, Andrea Prestipino, and @AndreaRaffo8: https://t.co/KSS40sNNwu

[Ben Moll @ben_moll]

"The Power of Substitution: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect" with @MSchularick and @GeorgZachmann

Presentation tomorrow at 11:30am ET at @BrookingsEcon conference. Live stream https://t.co/P8f3f4tWEt

Draft: https://t.co/KlLbrPC5y0

Slides: https://t.co/3d7vzCObU7

[Greg Kaplan @GregWKaplan]

Very excited to announce the launch of #JPEMicro and #JPEMacro - new journals in the #JPolEcon family!

https://t.co/XMmXKWF2G5

I will be initial Lead Editor of JPE Macro, with a fantastic set of editors: @cristinarellano, Anmol Bhandari, @arielburst Chris Tonetti @JoeVavra

[Jens Ulbrich @ulbrich_jens]

1) This one is for all those interested in DSGE modelling with a special focus on climate change related aspects. The technical documentation and the source codes of our #EMuSe model are now publicly available on the #Bundesbank website:
https://t.co/tQMoi1VQcO

[Claus Michelsen @ClausMichelsen]

Wir haben das #Wachstumschancengesetz durchgespielt. Wie viel #Wachstum bringt es? Welche #Investitionen werden angstoßen? Was bringt es an zusätzliche #Beschäftigung und wieviele #Steuern werden damit wieder eingespielt? Spoiler: Es ist ein richtiger, aber nur erster Schritt.🧵

[Daron Acemoglu @DAcemogluMIT]

Another statement from leading AI experts and entrepreneurs has come out: https://t.co/6VDQC9cSbX. It states “Mitigating the risk of global extinction from AI should be a global priority along other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war”.

[Britta Gehrke @gehrke_b]

Job alert: I am looking for a post-doc in macroeconomics at @FU_Berlin. Please spread the word. @BSE_Berlin #econtwitter All information is here: https://t.co/R5son41N3h