If anyone wants to read about one of the ways you can get flip flop bugs like this i wrote about it a few months ago. Its basically really easy to do and one of the fastest ways you can incinerate and account.
https://t.co/ov6nMP5Rso
Pretty much all lead lag analysis is wrong if youre using public data. Even if you collect it yourself and do the time alignment perfectly, crypto data is hot garbage when things get spicy.
Binance latency has 100 ms tails during stress and their public feeds can completely dislocate. You can "fix" this with exchange timestamps in post trade, but then you cant align timestamps with much confidence.
Actual lead-lag cross ex works completely differently to how most people think. What matches is often very different from what the public feed suggests.
So in summary, This is great analysis if you ignore reality and don't want to make money.
Two yachts have run aground at Ballina and Byron Bay recently and are both still stuck there, but last night Markus Pache π· took this shot of the one stuck at Flat Rock, East Ballina. Captures the dark emu at the perfect angle !
Its also worth saying beta hedging is not a perfect because estimated betas mean revert. There's methods that "deflate" betas to try to compensate for this. But you're likely to use the wrong beta of you're doing mean reversion as when you're putting on the positions the betas will be at extremes.
@real_brad_smith@ScottPh77711570 betas imply you have some benchmark (you normally do) in equities its an index, crypto its BTC.
If you're doing delta neutral on something without a benchmark then its more like a risk parity model which is just adjusting size by vola. If you want to be fancy there is HRP.
@erfmufn@astrojml Its still amazing that cuiv manages get the results he does from tokyo. I know most people move their scopes to places like NM but i thought the main advantage was clear skys and time on target. Ive not thought before what the S/N curve looks like as a function of bortle.
@erfmufn@astrojml How much of a difference does bortel 3 vs 1 make for photography? I'm assuming it mainly helps for faint stuff. I know astrobackyard does trips.