@michaeljburry For a company with so much negative media, the valuation metrics look captivating. 10.49 P/FCF, 5.43 EV/EBITDA, with low debt. Sales aren’t trending down either.
The S&P 500 has returned an average of 12% per year since 1980 and has done so despite an average intra-year drawdown of 14%, and often drawdowns that are much worse.
The lesson? Volatility doesn’t equal a permanent financial loss unless you sell.
Over the last 75 years, the average intra-year market drop has been 14%. If you are overly stressed out about the current 9% drawdown, the stock market isn’t for you. Downside volatility is the price investors pay for long-term outperformance.
The sun was free. They sold you SPF 50 and a vitamin D deficiency.
Sleep was free. They sold you an app, a pill, and a wearable that tells you your sleep was bad.
Walking was free. They sold you a treadmill, a fitness tracker, and a £180 pair of trainers.
Fasting was free. They sold you meal replacement shakes and the anxiety that skipping breakfast would wreck your metabolism.
Cold water was free. They sold you a £3,000 plunge barrel and a podcast episode about it.
Silence was free. They sold you a meditation app with a premium tier.
Animal fat was cheap. They sold you seed oils, then supplements to replace what the animal fat contained.
Tallow was cheap. They sold you a seventeen-step skincare routine and a clinical trial proving your face needs ceramides.
Meat was cheap. They are currently selling you the idea that you shouldn't eat it.
The 20th century removed access to everything the body needs to function.
The 21st century is selling it back, one subscription at a time.
Your great-grandmother had none of the products.
She had all of the things.
The Queen of England died 12 months ago.
She ruled a nation and accumulated more wealth than 99.99% of humans…
And…yet…you haven’t thought about her except for this post.
You’re gonna die.
Everyone will move on.
Do what you want.
S&P 500 down 24.8% YTD at the end of September.
Since WWII, only 1974 and 2002 saw worse starts to a year.
Both years saw the S&P 500 gain 7.9% in Q4.