Matt MacKenzie

Reformed equity analyst | SaaS finance, growth investing & capital markets

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

I wrote something - somehow connecting Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76'ers mantra to both COVID and the FP&A world (clearly quarantine is getting to me)

https://t.co/GLP0hqC0CP

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

@fahdananta META was definitely not a consensus buy

In Dec 2022, stock was at $122 and the average 12-month target price was $145

Analyst ratings - 40 Buys, 17 Holds, 4 Sells

Stock hit $320 a year later

(Data from @mastersinvest )

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

@borrowed_ideas These are excellent well thought out questions. I need to read your research pieces more often.

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

@buccocapital That said, there are some simplified analogues:
1. Managing customer churn / production decline rates is crucial
2. Once a product / asset play is de-risked, the unit economics are somewhat predictable
3. Both require significant capital, which attracts snake oil salesmen

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

@buccocapital Agreed, the ongoing capital intensity is a key difference…plus that whole unfortunate aspect of shale producers being a price taker (commodities are jusssst a tad volatile).

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

@gregrieben The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

@damccormick13 This is great. Candidate decision process should really almost mirror an investment evaluation.

Interesting piece from Paradigm last week on evaluating job opportunities in Web3 (availability of on-chain data) vs traditional startups or Web2 companies.

https://t.co/l9jjBM67kr

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

@borrowed_ideas Market is an extrapolation machine and can also the world’s worst teacher at times.

https://t.co/YMra1AU0QN

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

@ShaanVP Animal Spirits pod (@michaelbatnick @awealthofcs) just rolled out NFTs to unlock podcast community features - premium mailbag, access to source content, access to a live recording, discord to connect, etc. All NFT proceeds go to a charity.

It’s been awesome thus far.

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

This is a great read on private vs public flows/valuations by @michaelbatnick

[Michael Batnick @michaelbatnick]

There's No Free Money Anymore

"Crossover firms participated in just one global venture capital deal valuing a startup at over $5 billion in February, compared to ten in January and eight in December."

https://t.co/qMIrBzpPrm

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

@michaelbatnick Literal lol at 8min mark…this is the visual I have of you salting the driveway. Never change man!

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

Storytelling 101 from @morganhousel - “there are always two sides to every investment: the number and the story. Every investment price, every market valuation, is just a number from today multiplied by a story about tomorrow.”

https://t.co/mT2x64palw

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

@gregrieben This is from six years ago, but still frighteningly relevant for the Oilers (and quite possibly the best sports meme on the internet)

https://t.co/i3JiaOgdma

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

@mariogabriele +1 on audio versions!

I read this over the holidays and it was one of the most well researched and entertaining pieces of the year - especially enjoyed the intel on seeding Series A funds (and marking up future rounds), tiger vouchers, free recruiting with H&S, etc. Great stuff!

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

This thread is incredible, especially for crypto neophytes but really for any investor.

Substitute ‘crypto’ and insert equity or angel investment and @punk6529’s guidance on risk/reward, leverage, and position sizing is still relevant to those asset classes.

[6529 @punk6529]

1/ On how to make it in crypto as a normal person.

There is one rule only: SURVIVE!

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

@fahdananta @LibertyRPF Awesome insights, thanks Liberty. This @HTTOTW podcast by @BenWilsonTweets on Steve Jobs was also full of gems related to Pixar and his return to Apple that I’d never heard before - https://t.co/E490GaqKLB

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

@thomasg_grizzle @marketwizard87 I’d add $TOU.to to this list. Best in class assets, largely unhedged on nat gas, and they just announced special dividend - $0.75/sh to be paid on Oct 7. Potential for > $4/sh of special dividends next year, wall of free cash flow coming.

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

An agile FP&A process that accepts change and incentivizes the reallocation of budget dollars to growth areas is the future of FP&A, especially in high growth business models or SaaS start-ups. Focusing on the process and making better business decisions, rather than the outcome.

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

I wrote something - somehow connecting Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76'ers mantra to both COVID and the FP&A world (clearly quarantine is getting to me)

https://t.co/GLP0hqC0CP

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

@Tyler_Rongione @tobi @InvestLikeBest @patrick_oshag This @tobi interview was one of my favourite @InvestLikeBest podcasts - reminds me of quote by @sivers from @tferriss podcast - “the standard pace is for chumps”

Systems are designed so anyone can keep up. Be driven, don’t accept structural limits (in life, school, career, etc).

[Matt MacKenzie @MattMacKenzie_]

This @benthompson article is superb - a masterclass on how the tech heavyweights are using bundling for different strategic purposes (churn management for AMZN, market expansion for MSFT, etc.)

https://t.co/1rmpgtQ1st