Maverick Investments

Road to a million within 3-5 years.....

[Maverick Investments @Maverick24060]

@2147mill I was well over 100k then drawdown in $ONDS killed my portfolio...I hold $ONDS $ASTS $IREN $SLNH....my time will come

[Maverick Investments @Maverick24060]

@asymmetric_bets Nobody should have share lending on 🙄

[Jan Zuazo Pfingsten @zuazopfingsten]

Have you ever wondered why $ONDS has a massive ~35% short interest ?

Let's open up the cover and look at Wall Street's dark plumbing. 🫳🏻

Retail sees the 195M institutional warrants with a $20 strike price and thinks: "Ah, the hedge funds are just waiting for the stock to hit $20 to get rich."

That’s cute. But that’s not how prop desks operate. Funds don't wait for the future; they monetize the present.

The strategy is called Delta Neutral Hedging (or Warrant Arbitrage). And it is the exact reason why the stock price feels so heavily manipulated.

Here is how the game is actually played:

When a fund holds millions of warrants, they essentially hold a massive call option (the guaranteed right to buy shares later). To hedge their risk today and lock in a risk-free arbitrage, they borrow shares and short the stock in the open market.

Read that again. The exact same institutions that gave Ondas money are mathematically forced to short the stock.

Why? Because it makes them bulletproof.

📉 If the stock drops, their short position prints money (offsetting the lost premium on the warrant).
📈 If the stock rips on good news, their short loses money, but their warrants explode in value to cover it perfectly.

They use the company's own capital structure to artificially suppress the price without taking on any directional risk.

That ~35% short interest is NOT a fundamental bet that Ondas is a failing business. It is largely a mechanical, synthetic hedge.

But here is the beautiful part for us, the base shareholders... Every short is a guaranteed future buyer.

To short the stock, they have to borrow shares. When liquidity dries up like - there are no more shares left to borrow. The Cost to Borrow (CTB) starts to tick up. The funds start bleeding daily interest payments. The clock starts ticking against them.

Then, reality hits.

A catalyst drops.

Suddenly, the math on the Delta hedge breaks. To unwind their hedge before the CTB eats them alive, they have to buy back millions of shares in the open market to cover their shorts.

You aren't just buying a deeply undervalued defense contractor trading near its bankruptcy liquidation value.

You are buying a coiled spring. That 35% short interest is artificial gravity that "must" eventually convert into mandatory, explosive buying pressure.

The plumbing of the market is rigged. But once you understand how the pipes connect, you stop panicking at red charts and start buying the institutional bleed.

🧠💥🫳🏻

[Maverick Investments @Maverick24060]

@zuazopfingsten This is an excellent piece mate and superbly describes the hedge funds/institutional cartels and shorting on the warrants....a catalyst that is defo coming will create a beautiful short squeeze ⏰️🍋🍋🍋

[Maverick Investments @Maverick24060]

@baypelicanjpeg @YoYInvestor I have 60k worth at 9.05 and not selling a single share...PT $20 MINIMUM before I trim 😎

[Maverick Investments @Maverick24060]

@ChairmansLedger An absolute gift under 8 🎁

[Jan Zuazo Pfingsten @zuazopfingsten]

I’m just sitting here staring at the $ONDS chart on my trading desk, thinking out loud...

The other day I said $7.70 was the absolute floor. I did a deep forensic audit of their SEC filings just proved it with cold, hard math.

Retail is getting played, and here is exactly how. 🫳

Let's go full "Mad Max" for a second. Assume Ondas never sells another drone. Ever. Zero future revenue. We toss their $552M in already signed binding contracts into the trash. We value their legacy rail IP at $0.00. We assume their $4.3B global pipeline completely fails.

If we literally just count the massive cash pile they have sitting in the bank ($1.36 BILLION post-Cyberhawk!), add the hardware they just bought, and subtract the debt... their absolute liquidation value is $4.67.

That is the literal bankruptcy price. If the board decided to shut down the company today, unplug the servers, and liquidate the assets, they would hand you back $4.67 per share.

But back in the real world 🌍: If you apply a standard, conservative defense industry multiple (7x on projected sales), add that cash, and factor in the $552M in contracts that are ALREADY SIGNED and going to bill (plus this week's massive Lockheed Martin $LMT integration catalyst)... the actual intrinsic SOTP value jumps to $9.16.

(And if you're terrified of the $20 warrants... don't be. If it hits $20, funds exercising those warrants inject $1.4B in pure cash into the balance sheet. The fully diluted value actually stabilizes at $9.43. Accretive dilution is a beautiful thing).

And where are we trading right now? At $7.68.

Here is why that disconnect exists: Short-term swing traders are way too lazy to read a 130-page 10-Q filing. They look at a complex balance sheet with earn-outs, get a headache, see a red chart, and sell in panic.

But the hedge funds and algorithmic prop desks? They know exactly where that $4.67 liquidation floor is.

Look at the chart.

See those massive volume bars in May?

That’s accumulation. Whales loading the boat. Now look at the bleed-out in June. The price drifts down from $14 to $7.70, but the volume is virtually invisible.

To the untrained eye, that looks like a downtrend. To a prop desk, that is a "Liquidity Vacuum." When the big buyers fill their bags, they simply step away. With the bids gone, a tiny retail market-sell order drops the price 10 cents instantly because there’s no immediate buyer just below it. The stock falls under its own weight on microscopic volume to shake out the weak hands.

It’s not distribution; it’s a controlled bleed.

They were just sitting on their hands, defending the $7.70 equilibrium, waiting for the macro environment to give the green light (thanks, Micron $MU, for confirming the AI/Automation CapEx supercycle is still a runaway train 🚂).

Buying here isn't guessing. It’s a pure arbitrage play: weaponizing retail paranoia against a grossly overcapitalized balance sheet. You are buying a hyper-growth defense contractor for the price of a distressed asset.

[Maverick Investments @Maverick24060]

@BlackPantherCap

[Maverick Investments @Maverick24060]

@Sin44654184 @YoYInvestor Whole market is red and still alot of warrants from dilution when this runs out it will fly...I predict doubling from here within 2 months...NFA DYOR

[Maverick Investments @Maverick24060]

@YoYInvestor

[Maverick Investments @Maverick24060]

@JB_Invests @GDL_904 It certainly is pal...the risk to reward in the 7's is an absolute steal and a no brainer 😎

[Maverick Investments @Maverick24060]

@ChairmansLedger Mate I have seriously moved up a gear recently by not even flinching on today's like today...know what you own and have no emotions with clear PT targets and thesis 💪

[Maverick Investments @Maverick24060]

@CScapital7 @YoYInvestor

[Maverick Investments @Maverick24060]

@YoYInvestor I predict it doubles within 2 months from this manipulated institutional sell off....dilution is defo not helping but was a massive sell off in the whole market...nothing has changed in the thesis just gets stronger 😎

[Maverick Investments @Maverick24060]

@sen_investing @StocksAlexM It's institutional whale flow that pumps this stock not retail...patience and this doubles within 2 months from this crazy sell off and shorters dump

[Maverick Investments @Maverick24060]

@StockChaser_

[Maverick Investments @Maverick24060]

@JB_Invests Impressive cartel collusion to short the hell out of it....not sold a single share PT $20 EOY....staying patient and long wins this game 👍

[Maverick Investments @Maverick24060]

@retail_mourinho Whole stock market is down markets are testing everyone right now...fundementals have not changed if anything getting better....Hold !!!!!

[Maverick Investments @Maverick24060]

@Cantal_Capital Bullish PT $20 EOY....only the patient will be rewarded.... low sentiment normally a sign upward trend imminent...initial target $12-14