Floris Mertens

[Floris Mertens @MertensFloris]

@leonhillen Aangezien je JDB adept bent: duidelijke einde bullmarkt signalen dit.
🎉 🥳 🛎️ toeters & bellen

[Floris Mertens @MertensFloris]

@BeardoTrader Who needs luck when you’ve got skills 😬

[Floris Mertens @MertensFloris]

@BeardoTrader @kilkenny70

[Floris Mertens @MertensFloris]

@BeardoTrader Not for DAX

[Floris Mertens @MertensFloris]

@WardDssn @marktradewinst Tenzij weekly timeframe dominant is: doorbraak wsma 50 maakt koersdoel wsma 200

[Floris Mertens @MertensFloris]

@BeardoTrader You know we live in a simulation do you?

[Floris Mertens @MertensFloris]

@Basssem666 We already did

[Floris Mertens @MertensFloris]

@degrotepuinhoop @JDB_trading 50€

[Floris Mertens @MertensFloris]

@JDB_trading Magic mushrooms kunnen helpen

[Floris Mertens @MertensFloris]

@JDB_trading 💓

[Floris Mertens @MertensFloris]

@marktradewinst Die timing bro! Je wil JDB ontlopen? 🤣

[Floris Mertens @MertensFloris]

@geldvos Zie ik daar een island top

[Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc]

This pattern of 15 good(ish) years (white portion of the box) followed by 15 years when you had better be a market timer (yellow portion) has worked all the way back to the 1830s. The next yellow box starts about now.

[Banana3 @Banana3Stocks]

$NVDA

NVDA - weekly chart analysis 💜

🎯 $250 👀

4 weeks of brutal down right after the breakout, is it over?

No, it’s just beginning 🤗

NVDA on the weekly time frame really respects the 13EMA. In fact you can see if you follow the purple moving average how it acts when it breaks below it, when it reclaims it, and when it gets too far away from it 🤔

Well, it just tapped the “Weekly 13EMA” to the penny 🧐 (zoom in). Also, the 13EMA is at an All Time High 😳

This point, has a 2nd point of confluence, which is the “neckline” (highlighted by the yellow horizontal line) as a Support/Resistance Line (S/R Flip Area) 📝

So… it established a base below the neckline and then it broke out and now it’s retesting the breakout line to turn former resistance into support - “technical analysis 101”

Classic TA, combined with the 13EMA tap, makes believe that the next leg higher for NVDA is upon us 😘

Not financial advice!

Much love! 💜🍌🍌🍌

[Floris Mertens @MertensFloris]

@Mr_Derivatives Zero chance

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

MARKET MECHANICS LESSON:

Why MRVL Crashed Into the Close

Yesterday MRVL ran from ~$305 to ~$329 by mid-afternoon. Then it fell $19 in 10 minutes and crossed at $310.58. No news. No earnings miss. No downgrade. Pure mechanics. Here's what happened and why it matters.

THE SETUP: INDEX INCLUSION ARBITRAGE

When a stock gets added to a major index, passive funds are required to buy it at the closing price on inclusion day. They have no choice. They must own it by the close. Everyone knows this in advance.

Arbitrage firms exploit this. In the days leading up to inclusion, they accumulate shares before the passive funds are forced to buy. Then they sell into the guaranteed demand at the close. The profit is the spread between their entry price and the closing cross.

THE MRVL TRADE:

June 15-17: Arb desks accumulated roughly $20-30B of MRVL inventory through dark pools. Blended cost: approximately $290-300.

Yesterday morning: MRVL ran from $305 to $329. Momentum traders and short-covering piled in ahead of the inclusion print. The arbs sat on their inventory and watched the price rise. Every dollar higher was additional profit on their position.

3:50 PM: The MOC (Market on Close) imbalance feed published. This is the official number that tells the market how much net buying the passive funds need at the close. The imbalance indicated $5-8B of net buying needed.

THE PROBLEM: The arbs had $20-30B of inventory to sell. The passive funds only needed $5-8B. There were 3-4x more sellers than buyers.

3:50-4:00 PM: The arbs recognized the mismatch instantly. They started selling aggressively on the lit order book to clear inventory before the close. They couldn't wait for the 4:00 PM cross because there wasn't enough passive demand to absorb their full position. MRVL dropped from $327 to $310 in 10 minutes.

4:00 PM cross: $310.58. The passive funds got their full allocation at this price. The arbs unloaded the bulk of their inventory. Still profitable. They bought at $290-300 and sold at $310. But significantly less profitable than $327.

4:01-4:14 PM: The remaining $10B+ of residual inventory cleaned up through dark pool and swap structures at the official close mark.

THE OPTIONS TELL:

At 3:33 PM, with MRVL trading at $327.62, someone bought $310 puts expiring that same day for $0.24. Those puts were 5.4% out of the money with 27 minutes until expiration. On any normal day, that's a lottery ticket that expires worthless.

Those puts went deep in the money. MRVL crossed at $310.58. The $310 strike was at the money at the close. A $0.24 option became valuable in 27 minutes because the buyer understood the inclusion mechanics that were about to unfold.

THE LESSON:

This wasn't manipulation. It wasn't a crash. It was the predictable resolution of an arbitrage supply-demand imbalance.

The passive funds created guaranteed demand. The arbs front-ran that demand. The arbs accumulated more inventory than the demand could absorb. The MOC imbalance revealed the mismatch at 3:50 PM. The arbs sold into each other trying to exit first. The price fell to the level where supply met demand.

Every index inclusion event has this dynamic. The magnitude depends on the gap between arb inventory and passive fund demand. When the arbs overestimate the demand (or over-accumulate inventory), the closing cross is violent. When the sizes match, the cross is orderly.

The flow told the story before the price did. The dark pool accumulation over three days mapped the arb inventory. The MOC imbalance at 3:50 PM revealed the mismatch. The options market at 3:33 PM showed someone positioning for the exact outcome. The mechanics were visible to anyone watching the right data.

This is why we track flow, not headlines. The mechanic says: index arbs over-accumulated and the MOC imbalance was too small to absorb them. Same result. Different understanding. Different edge next time.

$MRVL $SMH $QQQ

[Floris Mertens @MertensFloris]

@LavieJanRoos Gebruik gewoon snapchat. Problem solved

[Floris Mertens @MertensFloris]

@SDCtrader The markets are never obvious 🙃

[Floris Mertens @MertensFloris]

@SDCtrader Zoals bij btc. 7 maand ertussen wel. Of doet de rsi er daar niet meer toe aangezien die dip na de eerste top de rsi ‘reset’ 🤔

[Floris Mertens @MertensFloris]

@Basssem666