Michael D. Nahas

Economist, Chair of Austin's Economic Prosperity Commission

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

@jayparsons We have a tool to soften cyclic markets: a futures market. We need a futures market for rents in every major city.

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

@juliogatx We need good news sources that are available to everyone. Austin should consider using @glenweyl’s Quadratic Voting to decide funding for works that are available to everyone. This could be news, public concerts, public arts, web services, etc. https://t.co/J3YV5V5TNa

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

@joshrauh Austin is #6 in the country in pension debt. And I think this website underestimates it --- my calculation is $8.6 billion, using a risk-free discount rate. It is not a Top 10 list that I want my city on.

https://t.co/XMXVel4qUR

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

I spent 6 months looking into Austin's pensions. Here's the report. https://t.co/cdr2ETpKtJ

Austin borrowed $3.5B from the pensions at a variable 6.9% rate. For the rest of the decade, we'll pay $240M in interest each year and debt will keep increasing.

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

I want to thank @joshrauh for his work on city pensions. His estimate of $7 billion for Austin's pension debt was valuable to cite. And he answered my questions quickly and thoroughly.

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

@krassenstein Kids studying Arabic numerals? What's next, Al-Jabr?!

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

Economist on Austin's Prop Q: Austin's city taxes per capita as a portion of rent was the lowest of 8 large Texas cities. Its total burden (with AISD and Travis Co.) was average.

Sources: Fiscally Standardized City database and Zillow ZORI. Data from 2022 (latest year).

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

@jayparsons @JoeHoulihan35th Austin needs to build market-rate housing that costs less than $442 per month. Many homeless have $967 in income from disability. If they spend half on housing and transportation and transportation is a $41 bus pass, that leaves $442 for rent.

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

@jayparsons @JoeHoulihan35th We need to bring back dorms (SROs) to provide low-end market-rate housing. Especially in fast growing areas, like Austin. It’s the best (only?) way to get rent under $422 per month.

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

@juliogatx I got to meet Bill Spelman last year. I was told he brought a data-driven approach to Austin’s City Council. That video of his presentation on Water Treatment Plant #4 is amazing. I’ll miss him.

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

A great essay on the future of shipping and logistics. We need more studies on how unpredictable city roads cause costs to consumers. And how cities can prepare for drone restaurant delivery, which is happening soon!

[Austin Vernon @Vernon3Austin]

The Outsize Impact of AI Logistics

https://t.co/FlimmuvS7K

Automated logistics will impact 1/3 of US GDP. It lowers the fixed costs of transportation, allowing movement point-to-point in smaller vehicles. Cost and time can drop like a rock. Humans will benefit immensely!

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

@dhh Backing up iPhone with iTunes on Windows inside VirtualBox. But found out recently that the VirtualBox drivers can fail silently when writing to Linux drives mounted outside the VM. ChatGPT recommends backing up to the virtual drive inside the VM.

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

@Paul_SLG If neighbors want to buy land to control what housing it built on it, that's fine in my book. What's *not* fine is the NIMBY's using the approval process to delay projects and sabotaging the region's ability to provide affordable housing.

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

@SVNieuwerburgh @rebeccardiamond @LevyAntoine @EricKlinenberg @Key_Z_E @Boaz_Abramson @Stani_Milcheva @pierremabille @arpitrage Also, are cash flows stable? From my reading on low-end housing in the USA, the residents often don't pay on time, require eviction, and cause unpredictable maintenance issues. (E.g., ex-boyfriends breaking things, etc.) Are those risks similar in Belgie?

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

@SVNieuwerburgh @rebeccardiamond @LevyAntoine @EricKlinenberg @Key_Z_E @Boaz_Abramson @Stani_Milcheva @pierremabille @arpitrage I'd expect returns for low-end housing to be asymmetric. The supply is unlikely to decrease quickly. (LA's fires are the exception!) So, upside is small. And once supply exceeds demand, I bet prices drop steeply. Investors need higher returns to cover these risks.

[Chris Elmendorf @CSElmendorf]

Kudos to @dillonliam for covering the unintended but entirely foreseeable consequences of CA's anti-price-gouging law for L.A. fire victims.

1/3

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

@mattyglesias @TPCarney One variation on #DecongestionPricing is cap-and-trade: give each resident a fixed number of “drive at rush hour” passes per week and then let them sell them to each other. If you want fewer protests, apportion passes based on current usage.

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

The LA fires show destroying luxury housing, raises rent. What happens if we create luxury housing?

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

@emmma_camp_ @TheAtlantic My friend is a fan of social dance, especially the native Texas two-step. Solves loneliness and exercise. It may be the best prescription for treating depression. But we don’t have many dance halls, esp. alcohol-free all-ages ones. https://t.co/c5KtIGWaEA

[Erik Hoel @erikphoel]

They buried the lede on this new study. It's not that exercise beats out SSRIs for depression treatment, but that *just* dancing has the largest effect of *any treatment* for depression.

That's kind of beautiful.

[Michael D. Nahas @MichaelDNahas]

@emmma_camp_ @TheAtlantic If loneliness is a public health problem, it makes sense to spend money as a community to lessen it. People chose not to interact now, but we can change opportunities and costs to foster interaction.