Milk

Directionally correct

[Milk @MilkVariance]

GAMBLING IS PRETTY COOL WHEN YOU BEAT NOTRE DAME OUTRIGHT BUT ONCE YOURE IN A DOUBLE OT BUTT CLENCHER WITH UCF ITS NOT FUN ANYMORE

[Daniel Wallach @WALLACHLEGAL]

BREAKING: Utah has filed felony and misdemeanor criminal charges against prediction-market platform Kalshi and two of its top executives, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. https://t.co/04LN1shsIa

[Underdog NBA @UnderdogNBA]

Jayson Tatum in win vs. Knicks:

36 PTS (25 in 2H)
14-26 FG
9 REB
7 AST
3 STL

Defending champs start season 0-2.

[Milk @MilkVariance]

Losing fcs weekend after beating close on every game by 8 points

[Maxwell @TolemustheGrey]

Stealing candy from babies is actually hard. They scream very loud and the adults try to stop you.

[ClosingDime @ClosingDime]

Week 5 NFL Best Bet:

Drake London under 80.5 receiving yards

My model has London closer to 70 yards. His volume has been inconsistent, while Baltimore ranks inside the top 10 in defensive passing EPA and success rate.

https://t.co/zUBD5Ex3Y8

https://t.co/3tR3N68csF

[Milk @MilkVariance]

🫩

[steponaduck @Steponaduck]

Get on the train or get outta the way. I’m done waiting for the 1%.

FCS plays will be early this week.

[Milk @MilkVariance]

@goldenpants013 @DataBasedBets Almost lost me in szn2 but we’re so back

[Milk @MilkVariance]

Bad beat for a bad predictor

[George Santos @Georgesantos]

Hey @Kalshi thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform.

Let’s see how much longer you guys are around for. 💋

[Milk @MilkVariance]

If all the sportsbook apps were as bad as the Kalshi mobile app there wouldn’t even be any problem gamblers

[Milk @MilkVariance]

@KalshiSquare @CharlieBakerMA @NCAA Narc

[Milk @MilkVariance]

Dudes on here will larp about being turbo sharp but then also get engagement farmed by elf and stoic boy. Levels

[Ethan Anderson @MrAndersonVibe]

If you're trading golf on Kalshi, stop thinking like a bettor.

Think like a liquidity provider.

Use DataGolf as your baseline.

Start with its projected probabilities.

Then make the Kalshi market come to you.

Don't chase prices.

Post bids and offers that give you a meaningful edge over DataGolf's fair value.

If DataGolf estimates an outcome at 40%, don't buy at a price that already reflects 40% or worse.

Demand a better price.

Give yourself a margin of safety.

Think of yourself as providing liquidity to the market, not chasing every trade.

Your job isn't to predict every winner.

Your job is to consistently buy when Kalshi offers a price that's significantly better than your estimate of fair value.

Over hundreds or thousands of trades, discipline beats excitement.

Never trade because you're bored.

Never convince yourself a mediocre price is "good enough."

The price is everything.

DataGolf provides the estimate.

Your edge comes from getting a better price than the model.

If the market doesn't come to your number, let someone else make the mistake.

There will always be another opportunity.

Professional trading isn't about making more predictions.

It's about consistently demanding value.

Protect your bankroll.

Provide liquidity.

Wait for value.

Repeat.

[Milk @MilkVariance]

Many such cases

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

Wow https://t.co/dS56VvcV0u

[Milk @MilkVariance]

IVE WON A MISCLICK

[Milk @MilkVariance]

No Messi goal and no mcgregor. That’s the end of robinhood summer

[Whale Insider @WhaleInsider]

JUST IN: Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev says “Robinhood summer is here.”

[Milk @MilkVariance]

@sbinfluencer I’ve been living in a blissful zilbert muted world for years I forgot

[Milk @MilkVariance]

Did the women’s hot dog contest have women counting the totals? #justasking

[Milk @MilkVariance]

@maple420069

[Solution Gambler @JskeltsLoLBot]

This is the worst day betting soccer since yesterday

[Milk @MilkVariance]

The saddest part about the rise of prediction markets is that I can power rank all of the timothee chalamet fan accounts by how fast they tweet his public appearances