Money Metroid

Seeking happiness through the Kelly criterion.

[everyonehatespoetry @everyonehatesp1]

Just published my latest high conviction idea: Neo Performance Materials $NEO.TO (you know where to find it).

It is a massive call option on a trade war with China. History would tell us that if China puts an export ban on rare earth magnets, NEO's EBITDA could go up 7x as one of the very few Western magnet makers.

Even without that, NEO is the cheapest business in rare earths, with a 5% dividend yield, net cash balance sheet, at 3x EBITDA, selling unprofitable assets.

I believe it works in either scenarios.

[Money Metroid @MoneyMetroid]

@onslowshipping We’re peas in a pod here. Even if hardware margin and first party lineup concerns get worse, the out-years of IP value are too cheap here. One more shakeout (wen yentervention?) and maybe we get to provide liquidity down around 6000.

[Money Metroid @MoneyMetroid]

Dylan and Doug gave it to you free of charge. $TH

[Money Metroid @MoneyMetroid]

this was a good ass tweet

[Japan Deep Value @JapanDeepValue1]

This one has been on my mind for a while. Enplas 6961.T is a precision plastics manufacturer that makes (i) optical/display parts, lenses and LED light guides, (ii) high-frequency semiconductor test sockets and (iii) life-science microfluidics. At 0.62x P/B it is one of the cheapest advanced-materials names on any exchange globally. The business generated ¥7 bn EBITDA last year and sits on ¥22 bn net cash against a ¥34 bn market cap... therefore EV is roughly ¥12 bn, so the stock trades on 1.6x EV/EBITDA

The business moat is Enplas’ sub-10 µm injection-moulding, proven in smartphone camera lenses. Structural growth drivers are lining up: like AI & HPC sockets (already supply NVDA/AMD test flows). Currently AI linked sales are small (20% of rev) but with > 45% gross margins on this segment... its barely accounted for in the price. They also have designed/developed 60–300 GHz ‘lens-antennas’ aimed at Tier-1 auto radar and future 6G backhaul, and the small but growing life science microfluidics segment. All potential growth scenarios.

Run a “no-growth” case: FY-26 sales guided at ¥39 bn with a 13 % EBITDA margin. Apply the (stupidly low) 3x EV/EBITDA Japanese peer floor and you get 65 % upside for Enplas from today (¥3880). If EBITDA merely returns to the FY-23 cycle peak (>¥10 bn) the forward multiple falls below 1x! For context, US peer Entegris trades at 15x.

Enplas certainly has some earnings volatility risk-- since smartphone/EV optics still account for 55 % of revenue.... but that cyclicality looks well discounted at 1.6x EV/EBTIDA. Capital returns are not just talk either: the company bought back and retired 500k shares in 2019 (3.9 % of outstanding) and 455k in 2020 (3.8 % of outstanding). IR has flagged a fresh look at buybacks and dividends (hikes?) in the April 30th MTP. Food for thought; a ¥10 bn repurchase would still leave a net-cash balance sheet and lift EPS >20 %.

What’s the catch? It’s Japan: value unlocks can take years, illiquid (sub ¥1 bn turnover/day) and coverage is thin (two domestic brokers). The stock is also 75 % off its 2024 cycle high- so I am not the first to discover the upside potential here.... Still, at liquidation valuations and with clear catalysts (MTP, AI-socket ramp, radar design, microfluidics, etc.) Enplas probably merits a look, especially before the April 30th MTP.

[Money Metroid @MoneyMetroid]

@real_MikeBarnes Kinda feeling same. Didn’t know management had a history of dumb optimistic guides. Chart wants to price in memorypocalypse all at once, so let it finish doing that. Maybe we get to load up at Aug 2024 panic levels.

[Money Metroid @MoneyMetroid]

@spotgamma Brent, happy new year and GET OUT with your data and logic. The Silverbug Rapture is underway. By next quad witching you’ll see us waving down at you from the clouds. Then the platinum-palladium trumpets will sound, and lo, the earth beneath you will get margin called.

[Money Metroid @MoneyMetroid]

@PersimmonTI

[Money Metroid @MoneyMetroid]

@RorschachStocks @YetAnotherValue Even if Doug’s pitch biased my ears, I hear what you're hearing. CEO's tone shift across the last three calls is very "we crashed our clown car into a goldmine".

Also helping the $TH cause by making AI burn more tokens to shovel more confirmation bias down my throat.

[Money Metroid @MoneyMetroid]

@TheLongHappy Enjoying these fund updates, keep em coming

[Money Metroid @MoneyMetroid]

$MLX.AX "Metal sex is overextended, too far too fast, take it off my screen, I can't" - tincels

[Renting Rent-Seeker @climate_is_ok]

@MoonInvestr $MLX.AX

[Money Metroid @MoneyMetroid]

@finphysnerd Fair deuce. If you were playing with a white hot instrument like MSTU or SMCX last year I'd push back but the GME story is so cooked at this point I think your bet is sharp and low risk.

[Money Metroid @MoneyMetroid]

*pushes all-in, chip stacks topple everywhere*

JUNIOR EXPLORERS

[Capital Valor @CapitalValor]

GOLD

[Money Metroid @MoneyMetroid]

@AltayCapital Good eye on these stealth buybacks. In my custom alerts I'm abbreviating Sankyo Kasei to Sansei so it can manifest as Mansei 2.0 for us ꩜

[Money Metroid @MoneyMetroid]

So yeah, I called $ANEB free money and immediately lost double what I was chasing. Even from my starting point of no skepticism and not looking up rules, the tiniest risk of getting stuck with dark shares in a cannabis poisoning related biotech should have made me close the tab.

[Bogo @bogo100000]

Doesn’t know that time has elapsed to file def 14a to meet 20 day notice requirement for meeting. Deal is dead (even if it wasn’t you did not have to tender but buying pressure existed). Over next two weeks probably bleeds back to $1.8 if not worse bc institutions prob gone.

[Money Metroid @MoneyMetroid]

Filled at $3.12. It's another of these small lot tenders where they're paying us to press buttons. Goes to a dedicated pleasure centre of my brain.

[Lord_of_Biotechs @Lord_of_Biotech]

Nice news from $ANEB - 3.50 US$ per share if you own less than 2.500 (or more shares depending on ownership calculations).

That are investments I like, was able to buy below 3 US$, makes a nice present for my girlfriend lol

[Jonathan Faison @jfais20]

All my best rules came from my toughest losses

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

Secretariat was in 6th place in the Kentucky Derby’s back stretch (won by 2 lengths), last at the Preakness’s first turn (won by 4 lengths), 2nd in the Belmont’s back stretch (won by 31 lengths).

All 19 of this year’s Kentucky Derby horses are his descendants

The ticker is ETH.

[Money Metroid @MoneyMetroid]

@TenvaCapital Oh gosh Tenva I should have worded that better, my reply sounded dire: the portfolio hit was more like 1%. 2021 got oversizing out of my system. Selling earlier when wrong and being more accountable are the next milestones. It's good to be on a learning path with folks like you!

[Money Metroid @MoneyMetroid]

@finphysnerd @ToffCap ♫ They'll stone you when you're tryin' to make a buck
♫ They'll stone you and then they'll say "good luck"
♫ Oh I would not feel so all alone
♫ Everybody must lose money on a TSXV cannabis idea