Wealth manager/Voracious reader. Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. Moore Wealth Mgt is not affiliated w/ KestraIS
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Real-time GDP estimates look wobbly - and recessions are bull market killers.
Good news: Nominal GDP estimate stabilizing
Bad news: Real GDP estimate turns negative if consensus 4.2% CPI comes in as expected (see close-up chart)
If the insane death-by-TRO posture of the federal judiciary during the first 9 months of Trump 47 wasn’t enough to convince you we have a judge-made crisis, how about judges effectively enjoining other judges from doing their job.
Is it enough now?
There are a lot of hopeful AI narratives, but the hard data reality confirms no macro level benefit on labor productivity. Anywhere. This week's free Nonconsensus post one of the most fitting to the name:
https://t.co/5BHPAsyF60
bitcoin:native fell 83% after Janet Yellen took office, 84% after Jerome Powell's first term began, and 77% following Powell's reappointment.
Three cycles do not establish a rule, but they point to a recurring pattern. Each downturn unfolded alongside a shift in Federal Reserve policy, tightening liquidity conditions, and a major breakdown in market confidence.
With Warsh taking the helm, the debate is once again whether Bitcoin faces another difficult transition period. In our latest feature, we look into why this cycle may differ from those that came before 👇
Because if stocks start to crash due to slowing growth or credit event then the bond market starts to sniff out a flight to safety and lower rates due to weaker growth ahead. Besides the strong jobs number, the consumer credit situation is continuing to get weaker.. Ford just reported sales down -13.1% YoY for May. Higher rates will put pressure on autos and housing.
$Silver - Hit its 200 day MA on Friday but closed above it. A close below the 200 DMA will lead to a retest of the March low at 61. Unlike silver gold closed below its 200 DMA so we'll find out next week if gold is leading down or it was a fake out and silver will drag it higher.
The key catalyst for precious metals to go crazy last year was Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech on August 22, which signaled a rate cutting cycle in spite of elevated inflation. That's not where we are now. Markets are pricing a much more hawkish Fed...
https://t.co/vdpzPH8TBi
So while the Economy almost magically created almost 200K jobs per month over the last 2 months... Average duration of Unemployment ticks higher?
Now 26 weeks on average.
Now make that fit!
Remember - Duration does NOT get revised by August. NFP does (like in 2025)
The FBI is offering up to $150,000 for information leading to the arrest and conviction of Minnesota Somali fraud suspect Said Abdullahi Ereg.
Ereg is wanted for his alleged role in a massive fraud scheme that stole millions from the federal child nutrition program during the COVID-19 pandemic. Funds meant to feed children in need were instead misappropriated and laundered.
Investigators allege Ereg used most of the money to support his family's lavish lifestyle, like other Somalis who have been charged. The arrest warrant for Said Abdullahi Ereg was issued on January 24, 2024, but prosecutors believe he has already fled the U.S.
Somalis claim to be refugees to get settled in the U.S., but they often travel back to Africa and, more recently, have been fleeing there to escape prosecution.
Anyone with information concerning this case is asked to contact the FBI’s tip line at 1-800-CALL-FBI or submit a tip online at https://t.co/xKqX67f1ZN.
The market keeps asking: "When will Iran make a deal?"
Wrong question
@biancoresearch says this is going to drag on for a lot longer because the Iranians have no incentive to make a deal
Right question
"What does Iran need that it doesn't already have?"
Answer: not much.
Give them their frozen assets. It's a risk but it's only $39 billion.
#Iran #Hormuz #OilMarkets #WTI #CrudeOil #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics #MiddleEast #InventoryData #EnergyMarkets
Israel had a plan to topple the Iranian regime using Kurdish ground forces, backed by Israeli air cover and weapons re-tasked from Hamas and Hezbollah captures. Mossad chief Barnea believed 8 million Kurds, Sunnis and Baluchis could have triggered an avalanche of internal collapse. Trump vetoed it... allegedly after someone leaked the plan to Erdogan. Israeli sources say JD Vance. Vance's office denies it.
Mossad's view now: hold the blockade and the regime FALLS. Lift it for a deal and you've saved the thing you were trying to bring down.
Source: Jerusalem Post
“The programming for at least the last 10 years has been unoriginal, lazy, and little-watched by the media elites who are suddenly its biggest champions. It has only made news when there has been a scandal related to the bias in its coverage.” - https://t.co/BOK0ZR5Q7T
What’s dumb is to think California’s voter rolls are clean and legal.
They aren’t.
LA County was forced to admit this.
Combine bad voter rolls with No ID Required to Vote and then a Mail ballot to everyone on the voter rolls - and you have corruption.
We aren’t dumb - you just look the other way at corruption.
"The delayed counting of large batches of mail ballots in Democratic strongholds does create a vulnerable window that fuels legitimate skepticism and erodes public confidence, especially when election officials and verifiers operate in a heavily partisan environment with a track record of documented irregularities and ongoing federal fraud probes."
--A Grok one-line analysis on California's vote counting