NJ alpha

value investor. like != endorse; not to be taken srsly

[NJ alpha @NJalpha1983]

“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”

- George Bernard Shaw

[BatmanCapital 🦋 @capitalatrisk23]

Druckenmiller - 50 years into this game, the guy might again get it right this year.

13F:
Equal weight S&P is where the money went so far
Financials
Brazil / Emerging markets
Aluminium mining
Airlines

Got out of Tech (wouldn't be surprised though if he adds back some in Q1 2026)

[NJ alpha @NJalpha1983]

@BowlCutWizard @bucketshopcap “I’m going to keep this one brief”

[NJ alpha @NJalpha1983]

If your highest conviction ideas aren’t driving performance, you’re doing it wrong

[NJ alpha @NJalpha1983]

@JerryCap $MA has been throwing so much shade with respect to head start in VAS vs $V but not hard to reframe that as incremental rev growth oppty for $V, especially given the evident fast money preference for $MA lately

[NJ alpha @NJalpha1983]

@Citrini7 Better to be the typical pod than anyone with meaningful market or factor exposure rn

[NJ alpha @NJalpha1983]

@siyul You don’t seem to understand the difference between consumer and commercial/CRE banks. There are some valid reasons to be skeptical of SOFI but this is not one lol. Look at any other consumer lender’s ER/EP (eg DFS) - it’s similar - people care about NCO and DQ, which SOFI gives

[NJ alpha @NJalpha1983]

“B-b-but the 30yr is up 50bp over the last month”

[NJ alpha @NJalpha1983]

The extent of short covering in SMIDs on *decent* money center earnings shows how weak the macro/tourist short thesis on banks really is.

Shorts BTFO just like 2Q

[NJ alpha @NJalpha1983]

@JeffMarsico @bank_doc Yes and they’re best estimates but usually not perfect assuming he’s aggregating FV disclosures in K’s/Q’s

[NJ alpha @NJalpha1983]

“B-b-but they missed EPS by 5% just like I thought!!”

[NJ alpha @NJalpha1983]

$WAFD shows just how low buy side expectations are for banks right now.

+6% move today on a 5% EPS/2% NII miss despite hooking a C&I credit because investors were expecting much worse NIM deterioration. Huge step up in IB deposit betas but NIB outflows decelerated.

[NJ alpha @NJalpha1983]

@CONRBCap Your bio alone makes the guess better than a coin flip - small world

[NJ alpha @NJalpha1983]

@LastBearStandng I’ve made mine too, good luck!

[NJ alpha @NJalpha1983]

@depositgatherer @SirBaby6 As long as there are still big regionals with 35% IBD guides and nobody has taken a big L on Portland, OR or SF CRE you know the cycle isn’t over. That said, there are plenty not looking too bad NT and very cheap on mid-cycle earnings out there for the patient

[NJ alpha @NJalpha1983]

@colarion @VC05530508 @thebankzhar He’s probably smart enough to understand that in today’s equity markets, the real unlocked SOTP value would be a lot less than what market is ascribing to the company today.

[NJ alpha @NJalpha1983]

@CapitalCap1tal @eliant_capital Waiting to buy them at 3x EPS? Hard to believe it gets “a lot worse” from today’s prices for many minimally impacted, higher quality names trading at MSD fwd multiples and lower on normalized earnings. CRE, regulation, funding pressure, etc. more than priced in

[NJ alpha @NJalpha1983]

Bank investors this weekend waiting to see whether the bidder(s) they bet on gets the $FRC deal