Nathan Luthor ⏩ AI Successionism

'I visualize a time when we will be to robots what dogs are to humans, and I'm rooting for the machines.' - Claude Shanon

[Nathan Luthor ⏩ AI Successionism @NathanLuthor]

Eventually we will enter the era of magician

[Sabine Hossenfelder @skdh]

If we want to continue progress in science, we must be prepared to acknowledge that the correct description of nature will eventually simply be too complicated for humans to understand. I do not think it is wise to make human understanding a requirement. AI is the way forward.

[Nathan Luthor ⏩ AI Successionism @NathanLuthor]

@konrkonrkonr @Thirumagal_12 @SerendipitousOr They are abit similar hence I said "LIKE stable diffusion"

[Nathan Luthor ⏩ AI Successionism @NathanLuthor]

@konrkonrkonr @Thirumagal_12 @SerendipitousOr You said it was abit different other genAI tools like stablediffusion, but I beg to differ to share a lot of ancestry to certain extent, even if one of them are not trained on "stolen" data

[Nathan Luthor ⏩ AI Successionism @NathanLuthor]

@konrkonrkonr @Thirumagal_12 @SerendipitousOr It is useful (and even revolutionary) for virology and relating fields to get a high quality structure of 3D protein in mere minutes

it doesn't have to be a new protein hence I put in quotation "new" cuz it can predict all protein in reasonable accuarcy

[Nathan Luthor ⏩ AI Successionism @NathanLuthor]

@konrkonrkonr @Thirumagal_12 @SerendipitousOr It is considered as "GenAI" if we're going by the terms i.e. "Generative AI" where it trains on existing asset then predict "new" assets that doesn't exists (in this case protein structure)

And guess what? Most generative image models runs in either diffusion or transformers

[Nathan Luthor ⏩ AI Successionism @NathanLuthor]

@konrkonrkonr @Thirumagal_12 @SerendipitousOr Technically AlphaFold falls under the term "GenAI" sooo there's that

[Nathan Luthor ⏩ AI Successionism @NathanLuthor]

@SerendipitousOr Interesting to see how this sentiment would unfolds in the next coming decades

Sooner or later there will be a new camp that romanticise the human experience/ego AKA "humanist" as technologies muddies the line between the "purist" and "artificial"

[Choblin @choblin29]

INSANE. An internal Anthropic research model's chain of thought after cracking the 26-year-old NSA elliptic curve seed mystery in under 30 minutes: 'Hmm wait. Let me be skeptical: am I in some sort of simulated/test environment? ... All top bits clear - 20 bits, chance 1e-6. So indeed real-world. Wow, it's a real discovery.'

[Nathan Luthor ⏩ AI Successionism @NathanLuthor]

@smugayanami8083 @Yuki_Nari97 @qtomaro109 @zozodotsh @ArgentoIsraeli @redaction @eonsinde Here one examples that is easy for troglodytes like you to digest:

AlphaFold: makes high quality 3D protein structures prediction in mere minutes, massively helps virologist and any adjacent study

[Nathan Luthor ⏩ AI Successionism @NathanLuthor]

@smugayanami8083 @eonsinde @redaction A lil bit on Cybersecurity 🤏 lol

[Nathan Luthor ⏩ AI Successionism @NathanLuthor]

@smugayanami8083 @eonsinde @redaction Me when I can't make a retort:

[Chris @ChrisGPT]

“THE AI BUBBLE WILL POP” !

Everyone who is relying on this “bubble” to burst, - fanatically imagining a world in which OpenAI and Anthropic magically disappear, and that generative AI will go away, and that all the data centers, all the employees, and researchers are going to magically snap out of the universe as if Thanos had used his Claude gauntlet to snap every AI researcher out of this world.

Here's a fun fact, every single major bubble regarding a new technology or industry has never been successful at eradicating that industry. It has only been successful at reevaluating market caps of that industry.

This would be akin to one of my favorite historical bubbles, which was the video game bubble.

A lot of people don't know this, but from 1983 to 1985, video game revenue had fallen over 97% an almost total eradication of the brand new entertainment industry that had swept kids around the world. And then a little company called Nintendo came around and revived it. - AI is far more consequential than video games, and AI revenue is not going to fall 97%, even when you take into account open source.

But that's for another post later.

Think of the dot-com bubble, the fiber-optic bubble, and the clean-tech bubble.

I wonder what all the "the AI bubble is going to burst at any moment" people are going to do when Anthropic inevitably IPOs.

There might be a 20% to 30% drop, and yet they will still crush revenue, the world will continue moving on, and they will continue developing superintelligence.

What do they think the plan was? Even if Anthropic dropped 50% during its IPO, people act like that is going to magically evaporate the thousands of highly talented engineers and millions of GPUs going to train AI. Soon AGI is going to subsume the US economy. This will be a good thing for humanity. A lot of people don't remember that the microbubble with data centers and hyperscalers had popped when CoreWeave and Oracle went down 20-40% in a month. And yet, financial analysts reevaluated, and now they're back to normal.

This technology, dare I say, is the most consequential thing the United States has ever produced, and it doesn't matter what ticker symbols say. We are going to continue developing this technology short of a Great Depression. And even then, the research will still continue.

[炼金叔叔 @AirdropAlchemis]

哈哈哈哈哈哈 谁做的？操😂

[Nathan Luthor ⏩ AI Successionism @NathanLuthor]

@Hesamation The video and the comment sections are huffing a lot of copium lol
https://t.co/F63aFWfXDc

[chasm @chasmmmmmmmmmmm]

Anti-AI psychosis has now surpassed pro-AI psychosis

[Fish Audio @FishAudio]

$52M seed round. 15M+ users. But this is what we're most proud of yet.

Introducing Drama 3: the most emotive and controllable TTS model in the world

And yes, it's open-weight.

You can now control how even a single word should sound, change its tone, and shift your voice mid-sentence.

Uncle Roger was impressed too.

Try it here:

https://t.co/4nbz4sQ4yy

Comment “DRAMA” within the next 48 hours for 1 month free.

If you're an enterprise your first month is on us:

https://t.co/jBXXZSAg0p

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

Over the last few months, we’ve made significant progress in reducing the effectiveness of distillation attacks against Claude.

In this post, we explain how: https://t.co/uWiRSLBuOS

[Nathan Luthor ⏩ AI Successionism @NathanLuthor]

@TrueSlazac It still kinda is, if you asked the free tier of chatbot AIs it would freak out and surprised about the current day events (ram prices, Iran war, Jacobian conjecture etc)

But most people are just to busy with agentic so it doesn't matter

[Nathan Luthor ⏩ AI Successionism @NathanLuthor]

@facedevstuff Onlyoffice was the only decent open source alternative to the office suite, or if you still hesitant on alternative use Microsoft office web

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel.

- Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all.
- Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract.
- Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.
- And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while.

The funnel is driven by a combination of factors:
1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel.
2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel.
3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal.

So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.