Weekly chokepoints risk & transit monitor - October 26.
➡️ Preliminary data show Strait of Hormuz crossings reached 130 in the week to 25 October, up 8.3% from the previous week's preliminary count, as attacks on merchant shipping continued at a slower pace. Routing visibility remained poor, with no cargo vessels recorded using the Omani routes or Hormuz TSS. Bab el-Mandeb traffic was broadly stable, with higher TSS adherence, fewer dark transits and steady laden movements.
✔️ Strait of Hormuz crossings totaled 130 from 19 to 25 October, up 8.3% from the previous week’s preliminary count of 120, which was subsequently revised to 178 following dark-crossing backfills. On the same preliminary basis, entries rose from 57 to 74 while exits fell from 63 to 56, and laden movements declined from 71 to 58.
✔️ Hormuz routing remained opaque. Route Undetermined accounted for 88. crossings, or 67.7% of traffic, little changed from 67.5%. A further 39 vessels used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, while 3 crossings used Omani routes, all by service vessels and a yacht, and none used the Hormuz TSS.
✔️ Attacks on merchant shipping continued at a slower pace, with IMO confirming 6 incidents between 14 and 22 October, compared with 23 between 1 and 13 October. Diplomatic engagement intensified, including regional talks in Tehran on 26 October, but no agreement to reopen Hormuz had been announced.
✔️ Bab el-Mandeb crossings totaled 262, broadly unchanged from last week's initial 260. Laden movements held at 168, while TSS adherence rose from 90.8% to 92.7% and dark transits fell from 24 to 19. No IMO-confirmed attacks were recorded in the area during the week, although the Houthi threat persisted.
✔️ OFAC sanctions targeted vessels with recent chokepoint activity. OFAC identified 9 cargo and support vessels as blocked property on 21 October under Operation Economic Outcast. Kpler data show 5 of these vessels made 12 crossings of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb between May and September, including movements involving Iranian-origin cargo and dark transits.
#News #Iran #Hormuz #Oman #US #MaritimeNews #TSS #Shipping #Traffic #IMO #Houthi #OFAC #Sanctions #DarkFleet #ShadowFleet
Source: @MarineTraffic, @Kpler, Yuan Li.
https://t.co/1R8ks0Fy0K
USAF Bombardier E-11A BACN (22-9046) briefly pinging at Prince Sultan Air Base likely taking off for a dark communications relay mission in Iraqi airspace close to the Saudi border.
7m/101y #UnitedStates Air Force USAF 2nd shuttle flight of the day Beech C-12F Huron 73-1216 #AE130F arriving into Beirut RWY03 (north wind now) from Larnaca as #COBRA66
6th of the month/100th arrival into #Lebanon of the year #UnitedStates Air Force USAF Beech C-12C Huron 73-1216 #AE130F from Cairo into Beirut then expected onwards to Larnaca back to Beirut 1 more time later, Larnaca again & finally to Cairo as #COBRA66 same trips as Oct17
CENTCOM footage posted on October 23, 2026, showing U.S. Marines launching F-35C stealth fighters, appears to have been filmed at Israel’s Ovda Airbase, based on the interior design of the hardened aircraft shelter.
C [Approximate]: 29.940359, 34.939982
THE AIRLINE PILOT WHO ALLEGEDLY REHEARSED HIS ATTACK
Two routine passenger flights. One alleged reconnaissance mission. And a planned attack on Israel’s busiest airport.
On September 30, 2026, flydubai Flight FZ1073 was cruising at approximately 34,000 feet over Saudi Arabia when its copilot allegedly attempted to hijack the Boeing 737 MAX 8, registered A6-FKF.
According to UAE prosecutors, 29 year old Omani copilot Hamam al-Hammami planned to crash the aircraft into the passenger terminal at Ben-Gurion International Airport, inspired by the September 11 attacks.
But investigators uncovered something even more disturbing.
Prosecutors allege he had flown the Dubai–Tel Aviv route twice before, using legitimate airline flights to study the route and intended target.
On September 30, he allegedly attacked Captain Smit Machchhar with an emergency axe. Despite serious injuries, the captain managed to summon help. Other pilots and passengers intervened and restrained the copilot.
Flight-tracking data recorded violent altitude excursions, including a descent exceeding 14,000 feet. The aircraft eventually diverted to Tabuk, Saudi Arabia, with visible damage to its rudder.
Investigators are examining whether the suspect acted alone. Although aircraft records show A6-FKF operating the Tel Aviv route earlier in September, the specific reconnaissance flights and aircraft remain unidentified.
What makes this case particularly unsettling is the alleged exploitation of legitimate airline operations for hostile reconnaissance. A trained pilot, authorized cockpit access, and routine passenger flights reportedly became part of the preparation for a terrorist attack.
AIRCRAFT HISTORY JUNKY
#AircraftHistoryJunky #Flydubai #FZ1073 #Boeing737MAX #AviationIntelligence #AviationSecurity #Counterterrorism #CovertOperations #OSINT #AviationHistory #IntelligenceOperations
Beyond Egypt’s fleet of E-2C Hawkeye 2000 AEW&C aircraft, the EAF operates an array of specialized airborne intelligence assets, working in tandem to build a clear electromagnetic picture of hostile activities.
A thread on Egypt’s elusive spy planes 🇪🇬 📡 🧵
BREAKING: Four Pilots Killed as Two Philippine Air Force SF-260 Aircraft Collide Midair
Two Philippine Air Force (PAF) SF-260 trainer aircraft collided midair during a training flight near Fernando Air Base in Lipa City, Batangas, at approximately 3:00 p.m. local time.
Four pilots were killed in the collision.
While we discuss the final results, we must consider what the hidden objectives behind these operations are and what cross-border messages they contain.
The question remains: what's next in the coming period?
6/6
#DeterrenceMessage#Egypt#Sudan_war
🧵 On October 10, the Egyptian Armed Forces announced the third and largest phase of Operation Southern Shield, but things developed very rapidly after that, as we monitor the details regarding the objectives and consequences of the operation.
#sudan#egypt#airforce#airstrikes
Some GCC and Middle Eastern countries funded regional militias and backed major powers’ efforts to dominate new areas, forcing others to defend their positions under dangerous conditions. A belated awakening does not undo the consequences.
5/6
#Militias#USA#Russian#Mil_Bases
L’Odyssée touche à sa fin pour #Pégase26 avec une dernière escale en Égypte.
Les Aviateurs français et égyptiens s’entraînent conjointement pour l’exercice binational #Amun. Le tout, à l’ombre de monuments millénaires. 🇪🇬
@FranceenEgypte
Over the past five years,
the United States has significantly eased arms embargoes on Egypt, a stark contrast to previous decades. This includes the supply of FGM-148F Javelin missiles and LWCLU, one of the most important deals in this field
@LockheedMartin@BoeingDefense@BoeingMidEast Not only these deals, but on July 24, 2025, the US State Department approved a contract to sell the NASAMS system to Egypt. The deal included a large number of AMRAAM C-8 and ER missiles, as well as the AIM-9X. These packages were due to prohibitions in past years.