Dan Harris

Hic Sunt Dracones.
your financial advisor. No financial advice here.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Strategy posts record Q2 2025 results & shares 2025 guidance.
Q2 Result: $14B op. income, $10B net income, $32.60 EPS.
FY2025 Earnings Guidance: $34B op. income, $24B net income, $80 EPS.
FY2025 BTC Guidance: 30% BTC Yield, $20B BTC $ Gain. https://t.co/GPwb8kEl2N

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

@dgt10011 Interesting that you bring this up... I'm currently in Hull Tactical's competition for an AI model that optimizes their risk-adjusted sharpe ratio performance. They might have one of the first ML-operated ETFs on the market in 1 year.

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

Protein Gene Ontology IDs 5515 to 5600.
A snapshot of overlaps of length 6 subsequences held in common between GO#s.
Any missing GO#s have no friends.

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

@Poisonflats @infraa_ @Ondovian_ @grok The SRF is not full printing, they have to return the money to the fed or else borrow again.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Let's simplify things.

The 4 yr cycle was only the 4 yr cycle because the last three business cycles were ~4 yrs.

The global business cycle has always driven Bitcoin's. When it topped, Bitcoin topped. When it reversed off the bottom, Bitcoin went parabolic. Even the shapes of charted business cycle metrics have dictated the shapes of Bitcoin cycles.

ISM is a well-accepted measure of this business cycle. Look at the last 3 yrs. A mini-cycle at best, flat at worst. ISM never pushed above 50, and thus crypto never went parabolic. Halving or not.

Why? A strong argument for the ~4 yr business cycle cadence has been the ~4 yr refinancing cycle of US debt. This time, the US holds an additional ~1.5 yrs of average debt maturity due to the COVID-induced rate crash. Likely extending the business cycle by ~1.5 yrs. @RaoulGMI and @BittelJulien have spoken about this at length.

Now to look ahead.

The green signal has always mirrored ISM. More recently, it has led.

What do we see? A major uptick off the bottom. The stuff that starts Bitcoin runs, not ends them. Not on the hourly chart. On the monthly and quarterly.

ISM is expected to follow, and finally lift off its 3 yr floor.

Fifteen years of history tells us what crypto likely does next.

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

@brandank_cr Smells like *someone* wants some bagholders to sell to.

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

@infraa_ @Oilfield_Rando "Look, everything's great! You can tell because we have received no bad information."

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

@elliotrades @dgt10011 Jeff Park posits that bitcoin is being held down by short calls (MMs hedging long calls with short bitcoin)

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

@comic @QuestionAsker13 @RensingTrades You may be right, but I think for myself and make my own decisions. I also bear the responsibility for making my own decisions. I was bullish on NVDA for 10 years.

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

@comic @QuestionAsker13 @RensingTrades I appreciate your candor. I've seen your posts for a long time and thought you weren't engaging in good faith. I no longer believe that to be the case.

I don't trust the MAG7/PLTR in terms of holding an unhedged common equity position. As far as I'm concerned, they have waxed.

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

@comic @QuestionAsker13 @RensingTrades I think every single common equity that doesn't issue a dividend has this problem. In general, common equity shareholders have become funding sources with no guarantee of repayment and no schedule of repayment in the event of company growth. Examples: NVDA/PLTR.

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

@infraa_ Time to prep the repurchase machine to load up on some high yield mortgage securities

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

@QuestionAsker13 @comic @RensingTrades Does it not count to basically monetize the bitcoin holdings to purchase more bitcoin?

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

@RaddyDaddy__ @jonbrooks Who is the buyer of last resort if the Fed is ended?

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

@jv_finance Hey @jv_finance I have been mulling over the usage of bitcoin as a stronger liquiditity indicator than M2. What do you think about that?

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

@hillery_dan Fed reserve is performing YCC on short duration treasury debt. My mind is spinning.

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

@idiotfortruth @jv_finance You'd have to convince me that fiscal dominance ends in order to convince me that bitcoin doesn't carry some form of the power law forward.

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

@LayThemBare @theanticommuni4 @ShaziGoalie And you can apply to these without any certs/experience?

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

@HardcoreCap @LukeGromen @greg_ip They can just lightly saunter into #1 global GDP, slowly. What's the rush?

[Dan Harris @OdinSingularity]

@jv_finance My tinfoil take, Julius: liquidity in the highest impact areas has already been depleting. My suspicion is that bitcoin is being heavily impacted by US market chaos in such a fashion that global liquidity won't stopgap it.

Consider regression against USD Liquidity?

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

Last time the blue line hit this high on the upside, the USD was significantly devalued at the Plaza Accord.

Consensus seems to be overwhelmingly in favor of “it will be different this time.”

Let’s watch.