Oliver Scanlan

Academic, looking at the intersection of sustainable development and human security, with a focus on customary land and forest rights. Tweets are my own.

[Oliver Scanlan @OliverScanlan]

New paper: how should we think about "staying" in relation to climate change? We focus on four promising areas of work. Fantastic to work with brilliant people on this @BasundharaT and @PembertonSimon

https://t.co/x8nZYnfznE

[Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated]

This photo/screenshot will live in infamy.

[The Washington Post @washingtonpost]

More than half of the publicly identified donors to President Trump’s White House ballroom project have won new or expanded federal contracts worth more than $50 billion, according to a report from a government watchdog group. https://t.co/wEAqxMA7AG

[Wokerati Marty @WokeratiMarty]

If you haven’t seen Defiance: Fighting the Far Right on Channel 4, it’s very good.

It has echoes of what’s happening again today with the rise of the racist far right.

[Jesse Smith @jessesmithsoc]

Real banger from Sacred Cow BBQ on the problem of social sciences and humanities being largely immune to reality correction because there’s no feedback loop that penalizes people for being wrong. The incentive structure rather rewards people for intra-guild argumentative sophistication and coalition-building, which in many cases are ideological or actively reality-resistant. There are real reform efforts afoot, and that is good, though they’re largely happening outside of formal sites of academic knowledge production, e.g., Substack rather than academic journals.

This one amply rewards your attention!

https://t.co/y4vv90Ip3H

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

Iran’s Response to the U.S. Proposal: Deal or Renewed Conflict?

🔹According to multiple reports – including WSJ, Al-Mayadeen, and Tasnim – Tehran’s response to the U.S. proposal includes immediate end to the war; guarantees against renewed attacks; sanctions relief; lifting OFAC restrictions on oil exports; release of frozen assets; end of maritime pressure/blockade on Iran.

🔹Iran also reportedly links any agreement to de-escalation on other regional fronts, especially Lebanon. That suggests Tehran is treating the conflict as part of a broader regional security arrangement, and not just a bilateral issue.

🔹On Hormuz, Tehran has reportedly proposed phased reopening/stabilization of the strait in exchange for U.S. steps on sanctions, removing shipping restrictions, and de-escalation. In other words, Hormuz is treated as part of an eventual deal, and not a concession to make upfront.

🔹But the biggest challenge appears to be the nuclear file. Iran has reportedly rejected dismantling its nuclear infrastructure – as expected. Instead, it is willing to discuss limits, sequencing, monitoring, and addressing the concerns of its highly enriched uranium

🔹Reports also suggest Iran wants nuclear negotiations to continue during a 30-day follow-on phase AFTER an initial ceasefire/political understanding. That sequencing is probably one reason Trump reacted so negatively.

🔹From Tehran’s perspective, making irreversible concessions first would repeat the vulnerabilities exposed after the collapse of the JCPOA. That is why guarantees also reportedly became a major part of the Iranian response.

🔹Trump has called Iran’s response “inappropriate” and “unacceptable.” That sounds less like tactical dissatisfaction and more like rejection of the overall framework Tehran proposed.

🔹The timing also matters. Trump spoke with Netanyahu after receiving the Iranian response. The call highlights how closely the diplomatic and military tracks remain intertwined with Israeli calculations.

🔹At the same time, both Trump and Netanyahu made comments today that may indicate preparation for renewed escalation.

🔹Trump said the war is not necessarily over, only around “70%” of objectives were achieved, and indicating that more military moves may still be needed.

🔹Netanyahu also suggested that the job is not done because Iran still has its nuclear program, still supports proxies, and still has ballistic missiles.

🔹That framing is important because those objectives go well beyond what Iran appears willing to negotiate away.

🔹Tehran’s apparent position is to preserve strategic infrastructure while negotiating de-escalation. But Israeli strategic objectives increasingly appear aimed at long-term rollback of Iran’s capabilities.

🔹That mismatch is becoming more dangerous. The atmosphere now increasingly resembles coercive diplomacy backed by preparation for renewed conflict. Both sides still seem to believe additional pressure could improve their position.

🔹Iranian military signaling today may reflect the same assessment. Warnings from IRGC naval and aerospace commanders, issued around the time Tehran submitted its response, may have been intended as deterrent messaging ahead of a possible new escalation cycle.

🔹Overall, the trajectory is clearly becoming more unstable because the two sides appear to be negotiating toward fundamentally different end states.

[Yan Liang @YanLian31677392]

Meaningless semantic game of what official reserves are. CN holding of Tsy fell, $1.3T to $693b &assets held abroad are now much more in physical, productive forms than financials. These can’t be classified as reserves assets(ask any res managers), even if held by state entities

[Ben Hodges @general_ben]

One off the biggest mistakes of the Biden Administration…a failure to recognize that helping Ukraine defeat Russia was achievable and in America‘s strategic interest.

[Mike Young @micyoung75]

Every outlet is running the “corrupted” quote. The detail they’re skipping is the one that makes this structurally irreversible.

The decision of whether to prosecute Jack Smith for conducting a legitimate federal investigation now belongs to Todd Blanche. The acting attorney general who personally served as Trump’s lead defense lawyer in the cases Smith brought. The man who sat across the courtroom from Smith arguing Trump was innocent is now in charge of deciding whether Smith goes to prison for building those cases.

There is no recusal discussion. No institutional firewall. Smith indicted Trump. Trump’s lawyer is now the charging authority over Smith.

Smith also named something that deserves more than a passing mention. After an unarmed woman was shot and killed by an immigration agent during a street protest in Minnesota, Bondi and Patel did not order an investigation into the agent. They ordered federal agents to find links between the victim and left-wing domestic terrorist groups. A dead woman. They built a file on her.

“I’ve never been in a Department of Justice that would be willing to be complicit in something like that,” Smith said.

Federal judges have accused DOJ officials of dishonesty so many times since January 2025 that Smith said it had become “difficult to track.” Judges. In court filings. On the record.

The DOJ spokeswoman’s full response to all of this: “I would expect nothing less from Jack Smith.”

[Ben Judah @b_judah]

A very positive sign. Cannot stress how important getting a common financing scheme with allies is to our rearmament:

[Brian McDonald B @iamBrianBJ]

@Saul_Sadka goodp iints Saul. For those interested, here is an analysis if why it was leaked and why today.

https://t.co/HaGEWDErRx

[Saul Sadka @Saul_Sadka]

This was obvious back in June last year, but I only dared hint at the possibility, even though videos of Israeli Air Force heavy planes flying low near the Syria-Iraq border should have given the game away (they were not tankers). There are vast areas of Iraq where there is nothing but silent, empty desert for 50 miles in any direction. Perfect for hiding a temporary airbase.

There were many mysteries around the first day of the Twelve Day War. The IRGC no doubt has agents in Israel monitoring the tempo of IAF movements, and they certainly do in Syria and Jordan. How did Israel manage to get almost the entire air force to Iran for that massive initial decapitation strike without any alarm bells ringing, while maintaining total surprise? It always seemed likely that the tip of the spear arrived over Tehran from somewhere else. Israel couldn’t have scrambled a large part of its air force and sent it towards Iran without the IRGC noticing.

It seemed like the obvious play for the IAF to set up a forward operating base and an extemporised airfield there, as it would vastly increase the possible operational tempo. Perhaps some OSINT experts will now scour the vast deserts of Syria and Iraq and find the site...

Pretty mad. One day there is an unassuming-looking Bedouin encampment 50 miles from the nearest paved road, then come the cargo planes, and then the jets, rearming and refueling, and nobody knew...

[Jan Rosenow @janrosenow]

NEW ANALYSIS: What's going on in Spain?

Spain's wholesale electricity price in early 2026: €44/MWh. Italy: €127. Germany: €96. UK: €103.

Wind+solar deliver 44% of generation. Gas sets price in just 9% of hours, down from 55% in 2022.

Full analysis: https://t.co/ZpDqJ4goY2

[tetsuo @tetsuoai]

You can't engineer luck.

Cleanest phrasing of P vs NP I've heard.

NP is the magical computer that always tells you which path to take. P is what current silicon can do. Tetris is NP-complete. Chess is EXP-complete.

MIT 6.006 Introduction to Algorithms, Fall 2011.

[Mark Z. Jacobson @mzjacobson]

Head of International Energy Agency: Fossil fuel era won't recover after global oil shock:

-Countries increasingly turning to electrification and renewables

-Long-held assumptions about the reliability of fossil fuels shattered

-Confidence underpinning global oil and gas markets weakened

-Fragility of fossil markets exposed

-Expanding fossil projects will not help

https://t.co/zRHDLeG2m1 @fbirol @IEA

[Bill Madden @maddenifico]

Heather Cox Richardson is spot-fucking-on — and it was all preventable.

[Natalie Wolchover @nattyover]

On billionaires, please read this by Cory Doctorow, summarizing Thomas Piketty's 𝘊𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 21𝘴𝘵 𝘊𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘺.

[Auteur House @auteurhouse]

Akira Kurosawa recounting the unforgettable experience of watching Solaris with Andrei Tarkovsky:

“Andrei Tarkovsky was sitting in the corner of the screening room watching Solaris with me, but he got up as soon as the film was over and looked at me with a shy smile. I said to him, ‘It’s very good. It’s a frightening movie.’ He seemed embarrassed but smiled happily. Then the two of us went to a film union restaurant and toasted with vodka. Tarkovsky, who does not usually drink, got completely drunk and cut off the speakers at the restaurant, then began singing the theme of Seven Samurai at the top of his voice. I joined in, eager to keep up. At that moment, I was very happy to be on Earth.”

[Martin Shaw @martinshawx]

It may not be fully appreciated that the UK is not only seeing unprecedented treatment of direct action protestors as “terrorists”, but a lawyer representing them is himself being prosecuted for his remarks in court.

Here his fellow lawyers explain what is happening and express solidarity. A crucial case for justice and the rule of law in the UK.

[Jerome Foster II @JeromeFosterII]

It's really remarkable just how well climate predictions from decades ago have held up.

[Oliver Scanlan @OliverScanlan]

@hasanscreams @Jingjing_Li My understanding is that children have better learning outcomes across the board when language of instruction is in their mother tongue / language spoke at home. This makes mastering the official national language more likely, not less.