OptEx Signals

Sharing signals in real-time since 2023 | Signals +164% (max drawdown 14%) vs QQQ +107% (max drawdown 23%) | DMs open | Not advice

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

Today marks 3 years of publicly sharing #OPTEXMODEL signals for $QQQ.

The results speak for themselves:

📈 +164% cumulative return
📉 Less than 15% maximum drawdown
🎯 1.6 Sharpe ratio

But here's what makes that particularly interesting...

$QQQ itself has been on an extraordinary run, gaining 107% over the same period; a top-decile 3-year return.

Despite that formidable benchmark, the long-only OptEx model delivered:

✅ ~10% higher annualised returns
✅ ~30% lower maximum drawdown
✅ Sharpe of 1.6 vs 1.3
✅ Average exposure of 94%

Beating the market is hard. Beating one of its strongest 3-year runs ever, with less risk, is harder.

Three years of signals. No hindsight.
$QQQ $NDX #Trading #QuantTrading

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

@momentmal22 So so true. It’s an absolute work horse but it needs pointing exactly where it needs to go.

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

@plevchen sEaSOnaLiTy, bro

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

Everyone knows the market bottoms around the end of october...

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

#OPTEXSTMODEL $QQQ model increased exposure from 30% to 65% at the close today.

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

@momentmal22 buy the dip!

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

@Alex__Salomon Prudent.

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

We are firmly in $QQQ shake n bake territory. Often on days like today, there is a decent case for both a bounce AND further weakness in the coming days.

Here are 2 backtests. They both have the same entry criteria but each has a different exit. One has an average gain of 1.6% (77% win rate for longs) and one has an average loss of 1.5% (80% win rate for shorts).

Time to get creative. How best to play it?

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

#OPTEXSTMODEL $QQQ model decreased exposure from 90% to 30% at the close today.

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

#OPTEXSTMODEL $QQQ model decreased exposure from 150% to 90% at the close today.

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

@short_cap $SMH closed 2% higher on the 2nd. I’m surprised you’re implying you took the put positions. what in the price action on the 2nd convinced you to take the puts? Thanks

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

@Alex__Salomon Great update! Thank you very much. 2.5% feels like a big down to me but of course you’re right. Not even that big really.

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

For the first time in nearly 10 years I just spent 6 days on holiday with zero access to the internet. I see that we’ve had some volatility in $QQQ! What did I miss? Apologies for the late post re model exposures (see below)

Can anyone give me a summary to get me back up to speed?

BTW, I would totally recommend a “digital detox” particularly for those involved in markets day to day. The presence of mind and connection with loved ones is absolutely worth any potential missed profits.

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

#OPTEXSTMODEL $QQQ model increased exposure from 30% to 50% at the close today.

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

Will today's $QQQ signal have its first ever back to back losses?

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

@Alex__Salomon Good luck! Sorry I should have posted it earlier but was off desk.

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

@investingidiocy @idro___ Do you consider the quantity of values in each bucket? I would suspect that the tails have much fewer samples in them. Perhaps that needs dealing with in a way that looking at mean returns can’t? I might be wrong but I’ve seen that many times when looking at similar features.

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

@ConnorJBates_ The sentiment in the comments is quite something. This rally is certainly hated. Pain trade is higher and further dislocation between market caps/sectors/longs and shorts ($MRNA etc)

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

Today's $QQQ signal of the day has a 90% hit rate for an average profit of nearly 2%. Last 10 trades were winners. Will it manage 11...?

[OptEx Signals @OptexSignals]

#OPTEXSTMODEL $QQQ model increased exposure from 15% to 30% at the close today.