Message is clear from the negative US GDP print (-0.9%) and unfavorable miss on jobless claims:
The US #economy is slowing at a significant rate.
Add to that the 8.7% price change in today's data and the bottom line is clear:
Deepening stagflation and flashing red #recession risk
In 20 years, Amazon has bloomed into a $1 Trillion juggernaut.
Bezos credits the company's success to one core idea.
Learn Bezo's secret sauce for growth:
▪️Yield curve explained and thoughts on recent inversion
▪️The forward spread and it’s importance (3m and 18m T bills)
▪️ Significance for the markets 📊
Great explanation by @chamath on the recent @theallinpod ! $SPY $QQQ $HGY $VIX $WTI
SEC filings are filled with FREE investing information
But, the data isn't easy to find or understand
THREAD: The 10 most useful SEC filings for investors to know (and what they tell you)📜:
Trading as a Business:
A thread 🧵👇
To make money in the markets you need to be trading like a business. Hobbies cost money, businesses make money. A business has a plan, a process, and a system. A business has customers that it sells products to for more than their cost.
80% of money managers - armed with teams of analysts w/ MBAs and CFAs - can't beat the S&P 500, but I always hear private investors who hold big losses say they did their "research." The same research that gave them the loss in the first place, but now... it's good research.😆
The VIX closed beneath 30 after 11 consecutive days above this level.
This could be a good sign, as when previous streaks ended it brought some solid returns.
A year later higher 11 of 12 times and up nearly 22% on average.
As a trader you need rules for buying, selling, position management, risk management and position sizing.
Rules should determine your action. That's the only way to survive in the market.
Otherwise the market will fool you continuously.
Avoid Stage 4 Stocks
- Price is trading below 200d ma
- 200d ma is trending down
- Lower lows
- Lower highs
- Above ave volume on down days
- More down than up days
- Short term moving averages below longer term ma's
Many in stage 4 right now = highlighted on chart.
#Patience
The S&P 500 was down in both Jan and Feb.
Last few times it happened, stocks came roaring back, but longer-term not a great signal.
Worth pointing out, some of these worst years took place during recessions though (something we don't see in 2022).