Pedro H Dejneka

Papai & husband 1st! Founder/Partner @ MD Commodities. South America/World agricultural commodities & macroeconomics analysis - Basketball lover & Coach 🤙🏻

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

How did the Brazilian Agricultural revolution happen?

Is the growth sustainable?

Where are #soybean #corn production & exports headed?

Much of what was said there - over 1yr ago - has already played out, i.e.:

✔️ “🇧🇷 will double 🇺🇸 soybean exports”

You don’t want to miss it

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

https://t.co/9euWe8Ko2T

[Claudio Gianni @ClaudioGianni]

Este analista revisa el escenario para el maíz safrinha brasileño. "Los recortes de producción en la región sur, actualmente entre 5 y 8 M t, podrían compensarse en gran medida con los aumentos en la región norte. Por cierto, el centro-norte está teniendo rindes propios de Iowa".

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

SAFRINHA CORN 🇧🇷: Update

Yes, there will be cuts to Safrinha

However, production cuts in Southern Belt, currently between 5-8 MMTs, could be largely offset by gains in the north…

Yields being achieved in the Center-North Belt are UNREAL! “Iowa corn” type stuff!

Result:
TOTAL 🇧🇷 CORN: 133 - 138 MMTs

Down from ~150-152 last yr
(USDA and CONAB both waaaayy too low on last yrs numbers)

Worth noting that 134-138 MMTs would still qualify for a top 2 or top 3 largest crop ever in 🇧🇷!!!

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

@coachbrucepearl https://t.co/hr74Ojjvi1

[Pierson Dejneka @sp3hoops1]

24 pts on ONLY 8 total DRIBBLES!?!?

Some of the highlights from an efficient 24 pt performance on 6/10 3pt @ Bill Hensley Run ‘ Slam - May 2025

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

@TheHoopHerald https://t.co/hr74Ojjvi1

[Pierson Dejneka @sp3hoops1]

24 pts on ONLY 8 total DRIBBLES!?!?

Some of the highlights from an efficient 24 pt performance on 6/10 3pt @ Bill Hensley Run ‘ Slam - May 2025

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

@mar5hallhoops Some kids still do play this way 🤙🏼🏀
https://t.co/hr74Ojjvi1

[Pierson Dejneka @sp3hoops1]

24 pts on ONLY 8 total DRIBBLES!?!?

Some of the highlights from an efficient 24 pt performance on 6/10 3pt @ Bill Hensley Run ‘ Slam - May 2025

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

@CoachHackGO 51

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

@pipedreams24 @toiletkingcap @respeculator @ed_fin @NewsFinOil @jeremie0117 @CopperBullish @JimmyWar77 @CornerstoneOil @WillisThomas 🤙🏼👊🏼 appreciate it!

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

🇧🇷 to TRIPLE 🇺🇸 SOY EXPORTS?!?
Not yet, but soon…

🇧🇷 SOYBEANS $50 to $30/ton CHEAPER than 🇺🇸 beans into 🇨🇳

Any talk of “major” 🇨🇳 soy purchases from 🇺🇸 in “old crop” is pure “HOPIUM”

25/26 Soy Exports MMTs:
- Brazil: ~115
- US: ~45

By 26/27 🇧🇷 COULD TRIPLE 🇺🇸 soy exports!!!

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

@E_Energy_Adams We diverge.

These are short term gyrations and frankly, casual correlations

Nothing to do with longer term fundamentals

There’s just too many beans, too much meal and PLENTY of soy oil to go ‘round

As I said in the post:
“Funds trade PERCEPTION” 🤙🏼😉

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

RECORD LENGTH in the SOYBEAN COMPLEX!!!

~ 430,000 net long position!

Markets often trade PERCEPTION, despite how far from REALITY it may be

How much longer can funds “run away from REALITY? No one knows…

… but the SPECULATIVE rubber band is getting quite stretched.

[Claudio Gianni @ClaudioGianni]

Fondos comprados en niveles récord en el complejo de la soja. "No habría un buen final para ellos. Reservas mundiales de soja por las nubes, las exportaciones de soja de EE. UU. nunca volverán a ser las mismas, el aceite de soja está sobrevalorado, se sembrará más soja este año".

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

@a8anto 🎯🎯🎯 corn feed number is completely out of touch with reality

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

🧵U.S. CORN EXPORTS ON A TEAR!
25/26 U.S. Corn exports to set a NEW RECORD, by far!!!

US Corn Exports are on a tear!!! Should easily reach 87+ MMTs in 25/26!!!
For reference, the US has only once exported over 70 MMTs, in 24/25 when it shipped 72.
In 22/23, it shipped out only 42 MMTs.

Hence,

The U.S. should export over DOUBLE the corn it exported 3 years ago!!!

While that is an incredible feat...
...it still won't be enough to prevent U.S. CORN STOCKS from likely reaching a new ALL TIME HIGH ~2.3+ bb or nearly 60 MMTs!!!

here's why... 🧵

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

EPA / RVO / Soybean Oil / Meal / Soybeans
Pay Attention⚠️

The "speculative elastic band" is extremely stretched, without any actual fundamental justification whatsoever

Today's announcement brings nothing "new" to a market that "priced in" expectations well above REALITY

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

Soybean Complex (beans, oil, meal):
Funds RECORD LONG!

Why this shall not end well for them, again...

- Soy world stocks RECORD HIGH
- US bean exports won't ever be the same (no, CH won't "save the day")
- Soyoil story is overhyped
- US soy are increase
- etc...

The SPEC BOAT is starting to crack... Lookout

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

#1: U.S. farmers produced an INCREDIBLE 430+ MMTs of corn in 25/26!!!
That was over 40 MMTs OVER the previous record ~390 MMTs!!!

#2: FEED DEMAND is OVERSTATED by AT LEAST 10 MMTs!
That's correct. The USDA has plugged in a feed demand # completely out of touch with reality

So even though US 25/26 corn EXPORTS should be adjusted HIGHER by 3-5 MMTs...
FEED DEMAND should be REDUCED by AT LEAST
10-12 MMTs, when it's all said and done

Therefore, unless one believes there are MAJOR revisions for the 25/26 crop later in '26 (which is doubtful)...
... 25/26 U.S. CORN ENDING STOCKS should still hover ~2.3 - 2.4 bb or 58 - 61 MMTs, which would be a new ALL TIME HIGH!

FWIW, that is a VERY LARGE STOCK CUSHION going into 26/27

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

@AgroBrokers Fondos esticando el elástico!!!
Pueden se machucar

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

Soybean Complex (beans, oil, meal):
Funds RECORD LONG!

Why this shall not end well for them, again...

- Soy world stocks RECORD HIGH
- US bean exports won't ever be the same (no, CH won't "save the day")
- Soyoil story is overhyped
- US soy are increase
- etc...

The SPEC BOAT is starting to crack... Lookout

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

🎯🎯🎯 I remember when the world was "going to run out of corn and wheat in 2022"... and in the 70's and 80's, 90's, etc...

Like I mentioned in the post, IF the conflict lasts into "next year", ok, things get much more dicey... but short term, very little impact, especially given large carryover stocks...

[Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago]

🤦‍♂️Completely OUT of TOUCH headline and "analysis"

That said, as always...
the "FOOD CRISIS" headline sells

We are incredibly FAR from "food crisis" scenario in CORN and WHEAT

Now, if the conflicts lasts into next spring... that's a whole other discussion...