Key Events This Week:
1. Markets React to Trump's "48 Hour Warning" - 6 PM ET Today
2. March ISM Non-Manufacturing data - Monday
3. Trump's "Iran Power Plant and Bridge Day" - Tuesday
4. Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday
5. February PCE Inflation data - Thursday
6. US Q4 2025 GDP data - Thursday
7. March CPI Inflation data - Friday
8. April MI Inflation Expectations data - Friday
9. April MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday
We expect extreme volatility ahead.
BREAKING: Iran says it could shut the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait if attacks are carried out on its territory or islands.
Details include:
1. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is a narrow passage linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea
2. ~12% of global seaborne oil passes through Bab al-Mandab
3. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is the world’s 4th-largest shipping chokepoint
4. If both Hormuz and Mandeb are closed, total offline capacity could near 25 million barrels per day, or ~25% of global supply
We now await the US' response to Iran's "five conditions" for a ceasefire.