phoenix

Asymmetric bets, mom & value, preferably uncorrelated to the major markets, mostly small cap or even smaller

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

Current allocation:

30% gold via miners and tiny bit of silver
15% long volatility via market makers $FLOW, $virt and $abca.pa
55% global diversified microcaps
>30% short cash

Rules of thumb so far meaning sometimes I wait to rebalance when I want to be overweight certain assets.

Litigation finance didn't provide any diversification benefit. Still holding $BCHT and $BUR but it doesn't get its own fixed allocation bucket no more.

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

Current allocation:

15% litigation finance
15% gold via miners to increase leverage to the gold price
15% long volatility via market makers $FLOW, $virt and $abca, $LUS1
55% small and microcaps
45% short cash

Oil and gas stocks are dragging the portfolio down currently.

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

@ALLKAResearch Good for export. I like $vg yet natgas production is so much compared to the amount of export that we can't rely on Henry Hub rising. Natgas will stay cheaper than world market price for years to come. Takes more export capacity to close that arbitrage.

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

@SowingAlphaSeed @tomicki Yeah you're right. In March 2020 usmv dropped about 8.6% just like qqq vs spy 13.1%. Not bad but not a reliable hedge either. Yet a good diversifier for certain regimes like you mentioned.

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

@avionsunantiqu1 @stockhouse 👌

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

@SowingAlphaSeed @tomicki So the diversification benefit of those stocks rises in times of crisis. Did I get the right? So long low vol is a great diversifier...

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

@GrumpierBTDay @ChairmansLedger Hardening training

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

@stoked_on_waves

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

@StockBoxMedia @Riccardino999

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

👀👀

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US data center construction spending jumped +28% YoY in April, to a record annualized rate of $50.7 billion.

At the same time, public spending on transportation came in at $49.9 billion.

This means data center construction spending has outpaced government transportation spending for the first time in history.

Since 2022, spending on data centers has surged by +357%.

Over the same period, government spending on transportation has increased +16%.

As a result, data centers now account for 2.3% of all US construction spending.

The AI buildout is reshaping US infrastructure spending.

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

@toiletkingcap He really was that passionate

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

Yes it does and yes have. I think it's intentional and ideological like drug addicts are part of life and we can't force them to be somewhere else. It's disgraceful and dumb. I have to watch my steps every day so that I don't step into a needle. There are old people and children walking through the central station not aware of the dangers. If you think about the irony: many Germans have a picture of New York central station hanging in their living room. Often sold at IKEA. It's beautiful. We have way better public transportation but one of the most important infrastructure hubs of Germany is full of addicts and smells like feces. No German and no American hang as picture of Frankfurt central station in their living room. Entirely self-inflicted situation caused by bad policy.

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

From a Europoor perspective, the US is simultaneously overwhelming and underwhelming.
It's confusing, and often contradictory.
Yet the country's unmatched innovative strength will probably keep it on top for a long time.
Not everyone will share equally in that success, of course.
Still, seeing bars of soap locked up behind glass is just sad.

[808 @prpl8]

trip to a walmart in Las Vegas, they lock up soap here

how we feeling about

1) inflation
2) pricing power
3) American character

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

@utopia_escape @Johnie36149708 Language stays an issue. If you invent sth in one country it's not nearly as easy to market it to the entire EU as it is if you did this in one US state. It has gotten a lot easier with freedom of movement and one currency but we are far from the US.

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

People use different definitions. I use this one:
Inventions create sth new that works.
Innovations adapt an invention to market that make it scalable and economicly viable.

I agree with your point that we have big potential. The point is without making with it inventions stay on the shelf and don't become innovations.

Would be OK to say we'll never capital markets as big as the US. We could help founders go directly to the US and get double listed.
There are companies on the OTC with 1 m mcap. You won't find that here. Regulations holding risk takers back.

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

@toiletkingcap 😂😂

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

@Johnie36149708 I'll send you barnacle news via dm

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

🤔

[Sparta @SpartaCommo]

Iran and the Resistance Front reportedly targeting a full Hormuz blockade. Plus Bab el-Mandeb.

Markets aren't waiting for confirmation.

Jul ICE GO cracks up $5/bbl since Friday. Spreads surging $10/mt. USGC arbs into Europe still closed.

This morning may just be the opening act.

James Noel-Beswick, Sparta's Head of Commodities walks through the implications. Read the analyst brief in the comments 👇

#oilmarkets #oiltrading #commoditytrading #oott

[Common Sense Investing @onecentinvest]

Anybody losing sleep over these $NURS.V earnings tonight ?

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

Taiwan 23 million people
India 1.3 bn
🤯

[Themes ETFs @ThemesETFs]

🌏 Taiwan overtakes India as the 5th largest stock market

- $TSM represents 40% of Taiwan's market
- Taiwan sits at the center of AI chip production
- Capital continues flowing into AI infrastructure

AI isn't just moving stocks. It's reshaping entire markets.

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

Frantically searching barnacle cleaning stocks. Maybe barnacles are even a factor?

[Marhelm @MarhelmData]

Update on the barnacle crisis:

"Owners know that you really don't want ten days of idle time in the Gulf. Fuel bill will go up without hull cleaning. Antifouling producers have clauses in their performance guarantees excluding idle time in waters above certain temperatures."

[phoenix @Phoenix_FFM]

@ALLKAResearch I hope you and your loved ones stay safe. ❤️