Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social)

Betting on politics since 2010, trying to separate what I want to happen from what I think will happen.

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

@asoukevents Please respond to my email on my LDNX race pack. Registered over two weeks ago, nothing in the post, less than 48 hours to go!

[Reuters @Reuters]

AbbVie raises 2024 profit forecast on strong sales of key drugs Skyrizi, Rinvoq https://t.co/h6EVro13WR

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

@WorldwithStats What is the WHO source for this? It doesn't match at all the WHO European Regional Obesity Report 2022.

https://t.co/vqsLUW381N

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

@anon_opin It is.

https://t.co/xiFEnhOHfZ

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

@Jontafkasi @anon_opin I actually disagree. The shift from black & white to colour was an instant with huge impact. But smartphones slowly got more internet-enabled and we'd had internet on computers/laptops for a while, so it was less of a sudden 'Wow!'.

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

@ZeusODea Look, I wanted Falcons to lose too.

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

@ZeusODea Not enjoying IEM Cologne then?

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

@eberlmat In fairness, his next tweet links to the two studies.

https://t.co/narJUPFEWp
https://t.co/dtFZJSrcd4

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

@Psythor Wouldn't surprise me if in the next decade there was a notable reduction in crime which gets lots of arguments about credit and in reality is just this, much as burglar alarms and CCTV cut robberies/burglaries kinda by default.

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

@Mr_John_Oxley This sort of reaction is why we've never had an imaginary female Prime Minister. The imaginary glass ceiling holds back imaginary women.

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

@hopisen I've always wondered why all endurance athletes don't shave their head to cool off a bit compared to the insulation of hair. Seems the sweating and heat is a real issue, but they don't feel it would be worth it.

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

@Samfr Can't believe we went so long without this sport in the Olympics. It's great!

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

@Samfr Hope you are enjoying the climbing. Looks like McArthur will fall just short but not impossible for him, one error by a couple of people and he stays in the medals. All down to Toby's lead run which could put him anywhere.

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

@Sam_Dumitriu Forgotten, you mean? Because I didn't remember that until your tweet reminded me.

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

@DavidHerdson You know who else lost the popular vote three times? Winston Churchill.

Checkmate.

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

The Senate/White House splits in polls are still eye-popping with Harris on the ballot paper.

[Sage Of Time🇵🇷 @SageOfTime1]

New AARP Ohio Poll

Sen:
- (D) Brown: 46%
- (R) Moreno: 42%

Pres (H2H):
- (R) Trump: 52%
- (D) Harris: 42%

Pres (Full Ballot):
- (R) Trump: 48%
- (D) Harris: 39%
- (I) Kennedy: 9%
- (L) Oliver: 1%
- (G) Stein: 1%

GBM:
- Republicans: 49%
- Democrats: 40%

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

@NathanpmYoung I agree his tweet is ill-judged, but I think he is suggesting he disagrees with PredictIt and people are giving it too much weight.

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

@Samfr Even better how the tree coverage meant we didn't see him closing the gap until he was only a few seconds behind.

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

If, and it's a big If, Harris maintains positive approval ratings up to election day you'd have to suspect that would translate to a solid popular vote win. Trump has never been a very popular candidate, he was just more popular than Biden who had awful approvals by mid-2024.

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

#New Favorability Poll - 🔵 Harris

Favorable 50% (+4)
Unfavorable 46%

Highest Favorable rating in the whole election cycle for any candidate, 11% swing in Favor of Harris

Morning Consult C

[Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) @PipsFunFacts]

@ZeusODea Been a fair few scandals. Life (SC2), iBuyPower (CSGO), and others. Although following the big scenes they seem clean at the top by and large. Dodgy results with widespread suspicion not common.