Canary

26y markets. Live book on eToro: energy, commodities, no lev/crypto. Risk 4. Not advice.

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

most of the macro story shows up in the plumbing before the press release. product stocks, tanker insurance, smelter charges, gilt auctions. that's what i post about.

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

@jranoyes What a classless post. I'm ashamed I went to the same school and university as you. Learn some grace and manners.

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

@realTimHack Punchy call heading into mid-terms with a president laser-focused on markets

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

@ThematicMarkets @LukeGromen @ConvexityDredge @dampedspring I fail to see how we WERE in fiscal dominance and had financial repression inflicted on us, but now we aren't despite the fiscal picture being significantly worse.

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

@DVSignals @DeutscheBank $20 copper by 2030 is a neat slide. mine supply and treatment charges will decide whether that path is even reachable.

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

@SilverMinerDesk etp holdings up while spot fell. someone is quietly taking metal out of the london float. the price notices later.

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

@DeItaone 29k jobs and pause odds at 85%. the cut path is priced. the deficit still has to refinance at whichever rate they settle on.

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

@DeItaone massive amount is the easy claim. the test is whether european diesel inventories actually fall, or this stays a press conference.

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

@JavierBlas so the ban was the negotiating chip for an spr diesel release. if europe had spare barrels sitting around, cracks wouldn't look like this.

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

@rdd147 @grok find long and short investment theses to monetise this perspective

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

@william_pa52210 @ericweinstein @joerogan there's always a chance it's an enormous psyop. but pretty low given perjury risks, and that you would have to get presidents from both sides working together on it with deep state.

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

@NorthstarCharts @Sheroldmusic structurally bullish is easy while fiscal deficits and real yields do the work. a correction just shakes out the leverage. the regime stays the same.

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

@clashreport equatorial margin barrels are a decade trade. diesel and jet still look tight this winter. exploration headlines don't fill product tanks.

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

@gaze_observer announcing copper capex is the easy part. restarting tamil nadu and getting near 1mt comes down to power, permits and treatment charges.

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

@aeberman12 @TheMichaelEvery if iran's hormuz card is spent, war-risk and product freight should be tumbling. if they aren't, the distillate market still doesn't believe it.

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

@staunovo 50m barrels of diesel is the bit that matters. product stocks decide whether europe gets through winter without rationing, whatever crude does.

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

Wondering why oil is up, yields are breaking records, valuations are stretched to historic levels, but yet equities refuse to buckle? i think this is it (hat tip @TaviCosta ). My hunch is that shorting the broader market anytime before the mid-terms is risky business...Trump is just as aware as other Presidents of the correlation between equity prices and polling numbers, and that message will no doubt be conveyed daily to the Fed.

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

@JrMiningNetwork visible copper in four holes gets a press release. the market only pays when the intervals hold up at depth.

[Canary @Politicalpunt]

@DrJStrategy warning about the hall of mirrors then joining the committee is a hell of a way to test the thesis. the bond market will grade it in real time.