Call of the Wild

[Art Berman @aeberman12]

If Hormuz fully normalizes, Iran's leverage fades

That's why I expect recurring threats, incidents & false crises

Tehran's power comes less from closing the Strait than from convincing everyone it could close tomorrow

Israel remains the wild card

#Hormuz #Iran #OilMarkets #OOTT #Geopolitics

[Energy Headline News @OilHeadlineNews]

Jared Kushner’s private equity firm, Affinity Partners, is actively seeking to raise $5 billion or more in new funding from Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds. - New York Times

[Call of the Wild @PowderHoundPup]

@LloydsList @energy_blogger Does transits include ships going in and out?

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Interesting US flow dynamics.

PADD 2 is getting sucked dry as Gulf pulls barrels to export. Makes sense considering that PADD 2 has Canadian heavy sour barrels that are in demand right now.

PADD 3 has SPR and enough stockpile to last through June.

But what’s really worth highlighting here is the PADD 2 and 4, landlocked, crude imports are falling. Land imports have dropped to 3.129 million b/d, normally over 3.4 million b/d.

Cushing is already near tank bottom, so the Gulf can no longer pull barrels from inland to export, which means the incoming crude draws will be mostly in PADD 3. Canada doesn’t have enough barrels to export to the US now so flows will remain low.

As PADD 3 crude inventories drop and as SPR flow rate slows, US crude exports will inevitably drop. This will force oversea markets to tighten.

Right now, the market is making the binary assumption that once this MOU is signed, normality is the base case. Can the market overlook tank bottom and see that flows are increasing and prevent an oil price spike?

Sure, anything is possible.

But to assume perfect execution and a smooth transition is wishful thinking considering the adversary here, Iran, knows the same math/logistical timeline as the rest of us.

Balancing on a knife’s edge is probably the best way to describe this situation.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Japanese crude oil inventory chart is one of the wildest through the Hormuz crisis thus far.

[Call of the Wild @PowderHoundPup]

Iran's President, Masoud Pezeshkian, resigns and relinquishes full control to the IRGC. Not a sign that points towards a deal.

https://t.co/BirvqWDTUt
https://t.co/AXdhsiPehX

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

We are ~9 million bbls away from hitting a storage level that's the equivalent of living paycheck to paycheck for gasoline and distillate.

Once we get there, even a minor disruption (any sort of outage) will result in gasoline lines at gas stations.

I guess we are really doing this.

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

Neil Chapman, SVP of Exxon this morning at the Sanford Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference perhaps going a little off corporate script:

[Call of the Wild @PowderHoundPup]

@stevenmackinnon @mikekelloway @ElectAlana @desrochersplc @KodyBloisNS Why?

[Call of the Wild @PowderHoundPup]

@trend_bullish Going to haunt me. Bought at $0.14 and sold after a triple thinking I was a genius.

[Call of the Wild @PowderHoundPup]

@Energy_Tidbits Whoa. Adding another week to inventory by “adding” the fuel in cars. Thats new.

[Dan Tsubouchi @Energy_Tidbits]

Australia Energy Minister tries to reassure Australians that fuel supplies including "98.5 per cent of service stations are well stocked with diesel and a higher proportion for petrol".

He also reminded that his petrol, diesel stocks numbers and days on hand "are not the entire amount of fuel in Australia, doesn't count the fuel in people's car, doesn't count the fuel in service stations." Can't recall ever seeing anyone highlight the petrol and diesel that is in cars and trucks.

#oott

[Energy Headline News @OilHeadlineNews]

IRAN'S IRNA: IRAN REJECTED TAKING PART IN THE SECOND ROUND OF THE TALKS WITH THE U.S.

[Call of the Wild @PowderHoundPup]

@OilCfd @OilandEnergy Even if ships arent crossing the market thinks they will and I am getting slaughtered.

[Jason @DukeInShadows]

Fairfax AGM $FFH.TO

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Wow, that’s much more runway than I had been expecting.

Iran may not be joining that shut-in club so soon after all.

90 MMbpd spare inventory capacity at 1.75 MMbpd export rate (if fully blocked) is ~51 days of runway.

There is currently ~13 MMbpd of crude, condensate, and NGL production currently shut in across the Gulf.

Iran would—will eventually?—have raised that to ~15 MMbpd.

[Call of the Wild @PowderHoundPup]

@CTV_PowerPlay @VassyKapelos @timhodgsonmt Just get oil to ports. And get it done quickly. Increase value and quantity of partners we can do business with. 1 buyer where they hold all the leverage is shit.

[Dmamoosh @dmamoosh]

@blondesnmoney @planefag

[Call of the Wild @PowderHoundPup]

@bilal_akh TFSA withdrawals that add to contribution room. Game changer.

[Call of the Wild @PowderHoundPup]

@2020Upstream $KOS?