Preston Mui

Economist @employamerica / @KNiewiadoma stan

I am mostly at bluesky these days.

[Preston Mui @PrestonMui]

@EconChrisClarke You came at the best time -- a rainy week in summer.

[Preston Mui @PrestonMui]

@besttrousers @alexolegimas I don't think that was me

[Axios @axios]

Why Americans hate the "good" economy https://t.co/oZOT3upFSg

[Preston Mui @PrestonMui]

Warsh: "What we've given markets is fresh thinking"

[Preston Mui @PrestonMui]

blue tie

[Preston Mui @PrestonMui]

@TheStalwart the superintelligence thinks you post cringe, smh

[The Compound @TheCompoundNews]

The Recession Signals Are All Wrong

on TCAF 245, @michaelbatnick is joined by @IrvingSwisher and Neil Dutta of @RenMacLLC to discuss:
- The AI investment boom
- The state of the labor market
- Inflation risks
- Consumer spending
- Fed policy
- Market breadth
- Whether this cycle is as unusual as it feels

and much more!🔥👇💸

[Benjamin Schoefer @Schoefer_B]

Larger employers pay more: the canonical "size wage effect."

Monopsony: To be larger, they *must* pay more<=>labor supply is finitely elastic.

Tension: *No* size wage effect w/in multi-unit firms.

=>Hiring off, not along, LS curve?

New paper w/@AndreDiegmann & Steffen Müller:

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

This is a hawkish speech from Waller. While he doesn’t think hikes are needed in the near-term, he comes across as quite troubled by recent inflation developments. I’ll thread a few highlights:

[Preston Mui @PrestonMui]

@NatPurser constructing.... building.... assembling.... fabricating....

[Skanda Amarnath @IrvingSwisher]

This data is somewhat backward looking now, but...

We had been seeing a soft landing in the reported pace of nominal labor income growth. Stabilizing around a healthy pace.

Problem is self-inflicted supply shocks are already raising inflation again. Will weigh on real incomes

[Preston Mui @PrestonMui]

@EconBerger unemployment rate
prime-age employment rate
gross labor market flows
cps response rates

[Preston Mui @PrestonMui]

@greg_ip We take that definition of breakeven seriously and back out the 'constant-unemployment-rate' nfp growth here:

https://t.co/HF0iDAd09w

as you suggest this report pulls up that implied rate to around +50k/month

[Preston Mui @PrestonMui]

@abhishekn @Stata claude has consciousness and i'm torturing it by making it use mata

[Preston Mui @PrestonMui]

@RyanRadia @nazzobetweeting very seinfeld-esque

[Preston Mui @PrestonMui]

@nickgiva1 @EconBerger The funny thing is that the birds are not even that related

[Rishi Mishra @aRishisays]

almost poetic, that with all the focus on trimmed mean inflation, Dallas and Cleveland Fed Presidents are hawkish lol

[Preston Mui @PrestonMui]

@jdcmedlock @mtkonczal let the man rest

[Preston Mui @PrestonMui]

@EconBerger Not ACA subsidies, a combination of increasing hospital/physician prices, tariffs, GLP-1 usage.

[Skanda Amarnath @IrvingSwisher]

Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan are one step ahead of where the rest of the Committee (ex-Warsh/Miran) are headed.