Prin

Rationality, Effective Altruism, health geek, longevity / biohacking, Lemonade, Tesla & other EVs, software engineering, forecasting.

[Prin @PrinPaska]

@MMatters22596 nice to see $LMND there! 🍋🍹

[Prin @PrinPaska]

> In that case why expand at all?

My understanding of what they said on the Q2 call: they're expanding for breadth -- number of different cities rather than just number of vehicles -- to capture diverse edge cases. They work through the list and only open a new market once they've solved the sufficiently serious issues for it. Meanwhile they keep slowly scaling within the proven geofences, where the probability of a genuinely new serious issue is low.

Could be an excuse, but it sounded coherent to me. In the meantime, they tune Cybercab production. Slowly at first and then all at once.

BTW, it was 10% per week, not per month.

[Prin @PrinPaska]

@PaperBagInvest @daschreiber ...fair price for aligned employees -- and worth noting a lot of the near-term dilution is legacy options converting, not new grants. But let's be prepared for a few more years of elevated dilution. Unless I'm missing something.

[Prin @PrinPaska]

Great point about equity comp being more effective before the stock has run.

That said, I'm not entirely convinced dilution eases toward a number starting with 2 anytime soon. Someone please sanity-check this, but it looks like you'd need to average at least 5 years to get there -- on a 4-year trailing basis it doesn't clear 3% until 2029.

[Prin @PrinPaska]

@PaperBagInvest @daschreiber You absolutely have to add back the ERC tax benefit (Employee Retention Credits) -- a one-time credit that artificially depressed G&A in Q2 last year -- for the YoY comparison to make any sense. That alone brings the OpEx minus growth spend YoY increase from 48% to 29%

[Prin @PrinPaska]

@PaperBagInvest @daschreiber Here's a waterfall chart for the OpEx discussion (the very first question).

The scary +48% YoY drops to +20% once you adjust for three things: ERC lapping, Synthetic Agents interest expense, and SBC

[Prin @PrinPaska]

@Presl @piloly Most likely they sold most of the inventory in June and didn't manage to resupply sufficiently. Just guessing. But July is usually very noisy: first month of a new quarter plus summer holidays.

[Prin @PrinPaska]

@MMatters22596 1. $LMND - 79.4%

(to be fair, insurance volumes grow by ~32.5%, revenue is boosted by reduction of reinsurance, which is a one-time boost)

(BTW, there's no reason to use 2 decimals here, 1 is plenty)

[Prin @PrinPaska]

@nerdalert @Lemonade_Inc I asked Claude to restructure the G&A chart a bit.

[Prin @PrinPaska]

@nerdalert @Lemonade_Inc Very helpful! Both the charts -- yes they should have been in the shareholder letter -- and the modelling insights. Thanks!

[Puru Saxena @saxena_puru]

Options + leverage have turned the stock market into a casino.

The huge rally off the March low in semis made little sense and now the degrossing + panic selling is also getting ridiculous!

The fundamentals have remained relatively steady, just sentiment has done a U-Turn.

[Prin @PrinPaska]

@anthonyisonline @shai_wininger @Lemonade_Inc Yeah, I also wish they waited for profitability, or ramped it more slowly...

[Prin @PrinPaska]

@anthonyisonline @shai_wininger @Lemonade_Inc Notably OPEX growth should slow down in 2027.

[Prin @PrinPaska]

@anthonyisonline @shai_wininger @Lemonade_Inc Answered in the call, from memory:
- OPEX: growth spend, stock award, (I think there's also interest expense)
- Pet GLR: vet salary increases, they are adjusting prices
- Car, IMHO, if they can sustain 59% growth, good enough for me

[Prin @PrinPaska]

@MMatters22596 $LMND -40%

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

This is a super exciting release - Claude Fable 5 is the same underlying model as Mythos but with added safeguards. The benchmarks are great and it's SOTA on everything by a margin but I'll add that *qualitatively* also, this is a major-version-bump-deserving step change forward (imo of the same order as Claude 4.5 was in November), peaking especially for long problem-solving sessions on very difficult problems. You can give it a lot more ambitious tasks than what you're used to, the model "gets it" and it will just go, and it's never felt this tempting to stop looking at the code at all (but don't do this in prod!). The model still has quirks that people will run into and the safeguards are configured to be a little too trigger happy for launch, which can hopefully be tuned over time.

I feel a lot of things changing as working software increasingly comes out on a tap. The Jevon's paradox kicks in and I feel my own demand for software growing substantially. You can ask for anything - explainers, visualizers, dashboards, bespoke single-use apps (e.g. a full wandb that is hyper-specific just for your project), you can 10X your test suite, auto-optimize code, run giant research projects with custom HTML for the results, anything! "Free your mind" (Matrix ref). Really looking forward to all the things people build!

[Prin @PrinPaska]

@MarioNawfal False.

Claude: The EU's share of global GDP (measured in nominal/current-price terms) did fall from around 30% to about 17%, but this happened over roughly 30–45 years, not 17.

[Stanislav Fort @stanislavfort]

In this new Berkeley eval of AI for zero-days @Aisle_Inc is #1 globally in 3 out of 8 categories:
1) total zero-days with CVEs (!!)
2) breadth of vuln types
3) coverage of most dangerous vuln types
We're beating both Google and Anthropic with a few dozen people out of Europe!

[Prin @PrinPaska]

To be fair, I didn't fully realize the last part was irony -- but I didn't think much of it either way; maybe because as a shareholder I have mixed motivations. 🤔

It definitely would have discouraged me from applying -- which I'd consider doing if I were based in Tel Aviv and not Prague...😅

[Prin @PrinPaska]

@osoloco22 @shai_wininger @PaperBagInvest I vaguely remember the post. It was something like: "We're hiring in Tel Aviv, we're looking for highly intelligent people... if you're [primarily] interested in working from home and work-life balance, don't apply."