On Kalshi CFO quietly leaving suddenly: Not weird. We often see a CFO walk away from their likely life changing pre-IPO equity in a ‘$22 billion rocket ship’ with no explanation? Everything totally fine & numbers legit & just pay attention to polymarket and don’t look at us.
I'm building @OnchainEstate (Tomorrow Labs) with James Tse to save your digital assets from death and taxes.
A wallet for all your digital assets with built in succession.
Equity perps right now look a lot like crypto perps did in 2024.
Currently funding runs 11-31% annualized and liquidity is thin.
But crypto perps faced the same criticisms until the basis trade arrived.
Before BTC spot launched on Hyperliquid, funding averaged around 18% annualized.
Within months it compressed to around 9%,
That same flow deepened the order book and anchored price to the underlying.
Equity perps could be approaching the same inflection point.
Days like today make you wonder why finance isn’t open on weekends
I’m sitting next to a macro guy discussing Iran strikes. While he’s speculating what markets will do on Monday I pull up Hyperliquid’s oil perp
+5% @ $86
Brain melted. Yeah - 24/7/365 tokenized commodity trading is going to explode
On Khamenei:
We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here.
I know some of you disagree and prefer that we list these markets without a death carveout because it keeps the rules simple and because many traditional markets, like oil futures, can be proxy markets for war and death. But we believe that’s different than having a market directly settling on someone’s death, which is not allowed for US regulated entities.
What’s the point of the market, then?
A market on Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader was important because leadership changes in Iran have major impact on the world order:
• geopolitical implications
• economic consequences
• national security considerations
• oil and commodity prices, many of which move based on news and expectations around this outcome
And it’s always possible for a ruler to step down or transition power without death, even in autocracies. It just happened in Venezuela.
In these instances, we make the caveat clear in the rules and in the market page, but today is a good learning that we can do more in terms of improving the UX and adding more ways to surface the rules. We are committed to improving. In the meantime, here’s what we’re going to do:
• We are reimbursing all fees from this market
• If you have a position from before Khamenei died, you will be paid out on the last-traded price before his death. (This was clear in our rules)
• If you have a position from after he died, we’re going to fully reimburse your cost of entry
we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company.
####
today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone.
first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay.
we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly.
i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures.
a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers.
we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold.
to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward.
to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow.
jack
The risk of quantum to crypto is not new, no reason to freak out today more than yesterday.
This is Vitalik debunking almost all concerns with Lex Fridman literally 5 years ago
Everyone is bragging the S&P 500 is up more than 100% since 2020, but the index is actually down 88% when priced in a hard asset like bitcoin.
Bitcoin is the hurdle rate.
If you can’t beat it, you have to buy it.
(H/t @philrosenn)
One of the richest people on Earth chose Hyperliquid as their venue of choice to put on one of the biggest spot trades in the history of Crypto and you don’t own the underlying?
It’ll be obvious in hindsight.
Hyperliquid.
FTX start repaying today, If you have 1 BTC you ll get 18K, price in 2022, If you have 1 SOL, you get $15.
Me with Ethereum in FTX and still get full $2500, same price in 2022 :