DRUCKENMILLER 13F DROP
1) Druck sold memory stocks before the July semiconductor crash.
He exited $MU $AVGO $BE $NET $SNDK $LITE
Extremely well timed.
2) He rotated into cloud businesses like $AMZN and $GOOGL
We agree, these names got way too cheap.
3) He invested in datacenter storage name $STX . We prefer $WDC. Same theme.
Data storage does not have the same DRAM or HBM pricing volatility risk.
3) He bought $FOXA. We picked this up 2 weeks ago when it sold off after $ROKU acquisition news.
Was sub 10x forward PE, and their earnings will grow sharply as we see WorldCup hit and Mid Terms and a Presidential $15 Bn+ election spend.
4) He bought cybersecurity names. These are a bit pricey, but they are one of the few areas that have maintained momentum.
5) Interestingly, he picked up $PURR which is a bet on Hyperliquid. We re-established a small position in $PURR a few days ago.
6) He picked up $RDDT. We like that as an indirect AI play (licensing revenue).
7) He added to medical devices. If you want a quality category on sale with value there’s a lot to do here. He bot $DHR.
8) He bought $CDW. This is a mean reversion high free cashflow and capital return story. This was surprising to see.
I attached the bull case on this name.
9) He bought a semi name that is under the radar: $STM. This one is also a surprise.
That business is experiencing a decline in revenue, but the Lumida Invest app says they are re-positioning to get into Autonomous Vehicles.
10) Druck added to airlines which sold off due to SoH. We like this theme as a bet on Baby Boomer travel demand.
Overall, he has a thoughtful portfolio.
One of the highlights of the Warsh Fed has been watching stenographers posing as journalists, like the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos, reduced to reporting Fed backroom gossip because they’re incapable of performing real economic or monetary policy analysis without being spoon-fed.
PULLING BACK THE CURTAIN ON SOME PERSONAL THOUGHTS
People ask me all the time what it feels like to have a platform where I can share my thoughts on something I genuinely love (investing and the stock market) while reaching nearly 100 million impressions every month and the honest answer is that I have deeply conflicting feelings about it.
I'm incredibly grateful because this platform accelerated my career at a very young age and opened doors that probably would have taken me many more years to reach otherwise but the larger the platform becomes and the more media appearances I do, the more obvious it becomes that public visibility also attracts resentment from people I have never met, followed, spoken to or affected in any meaningful way.
The Leopold Aschenbrenner situation reminded me of this because “hating up” is absolutely real (especially online) where people often feel more comfortable attacking someone who is visible than examining why that person’s success bothers them so much.
Also a reminder that celebrating someone’s destruction because their position was overleveraged doesn't make anyone a better investor and pretending the original insight had no merit simply because the portfolio couldn't survive the path is not a groundbreaking thought.
Sometimes I share an idea that people find useful and someone becomes upset because they believe I took the insight from them even though I don't even follow them and have never seen their work. Other times they disagree with a thesis and decide that disagreement means I know nothing which usually leads them back to the same early-morning television appearance from a year and a half ago when I was clearly not acting like myself and had what I would consider the lowest professional moment of my career. The fact that this is still the only example people can repeatedly point toward probably says more about the body of work than the clip itself but public platforms allow one uncomfortable moment to become a permanent shortcut for anyone who already wants to dislike you.
Leopold was in his early twenties when he was fired by his boss (OpenAI) then responded by doing something very few people would have the courage to attempt at any age which was starting a fund and putting enormous conviction behind his view that power would become one of the defining bottlenecks of the new AI economy.
His thesis appears to have been directionally right but his risk management was wrong and those are two very different conclusions. The first speaks to his ability to identify an important structural trend before most people understood it while the second reflects mistakes around position sizing, leverage, concentration, liquidity or whatever combination ultimately caused the strategy to fail and those are skills that can be learned.
He received an incredibly expensive lesson at a very young age but I would be surprised if he doesn't receive another opportunity because people capable of developing original and correct frameworks are rare while portfolio management can improve through experience, humility and pain.
I feel similarly about @ChrisCamillo putting enormous conviction behind $AMZN and using earnings as a catalyst for his AI thesis. Did he add more risk through options after experiencing a difficult month? Yes but the part people overlook is how difficult it is to place your real name, face, reputation and capital behind a public thesis while explaining exactly how you are acting on it.
There are many large accounts that share ideas without showing their identity (which is completely their choice and not something I'm trying to criticize) but the level of scrutiny changes dramatically when people know who you are, watch you explain the thesis on camera, track the position in real time and wait for the first moment they can use against you.
Being wrong privately costs money but being wrong publicly can also cost reputation, confidence and peace of mind which is why I have respect for anyone willing to stand behind their work in public even when I disagree with the way they sized the risk.
My own experience has made me increasingly aware that the more visible someone becomes, the easier it is for strangers to reduce them to a single mistake, clip, trade or bad day while ignoring the years of work that created the platform in the first place. I played college basketball so the criticism and competition aren't unfamiliar to me and I have developed thick enough skin to continue doing the work even when the comments become personal.
At the same time, I grew up Buddhist andbelieve deeply in karma so I have never understood why people choose cruelty when encouragement costs nothing. You can disagree with someone’s thesis, criticize their process or point out where the risk management failed without enjoying their humiliation or acting as though one painful outcome invalidates everything they have ever accomplished.
I remain unbelievably grateful for this platform because it gave me a career, a community and the ability to spend every day studying the subjects I care about most but I would be lying if I said the toxicity hasn't become worse as the audience has grown.
I also really hope don't read this and think what I'm saying is that the solution is to stop criticizing ideas because accountability matters (especially in markets where confidence can influence other people’s decisions) but there is a meaningful difference between analyzing someone’s mistakes and rooting for their collapse since one helps everyone learn while the other usually reveals more about the person watching than the person who failed.
Markets eventually humble everyone which is why grace matters so much because every investor who stays in this long enough will experience a thesis that breaks, a position they sized too aggressively, a drawdown that exposes a weakness or a moment they wish had never happened in public but it costs nothing to root for people, show grace when they fail and remember that being publicly wrong once does not erase the courage it took to try.
Here is my AI investing guide.
Sitting here August 2026, my current best thoughts are as follows:
1. LPS (Land Power Shell) is still the most obvious and fastest path to cash on cash returns. Lots of value can be assembled and traded quickly at this layer. And as data centers get more pushback, energized land can explode in value. Very bullish here.
I’ve stepped into this layer very aggressively. My partner @anitavlallian and I have acquired almost 6GW coming online in a ramp from today thru 2029 of grid power and behind the meter.
2. Silicon - I helped get @GroqInc off the ground in 2015 and we licensed it to @nvidia for $20B Dec2025. I won’t invest or incubate anything in this layer now. The perf demands of the chips are too high, manufacturing precision is too complex and supply chain influence to get adjacent components like memory isn’t possible for a startup anymore. Lots of capital will be wasted here chasing Groq and Cerebras’ success. Note that both startups made sense a decade ago when these constraints were much more modest.
3. Clouds - Clouds are very very lucrative but very hard to build and very expensive and technically complicated to maintain. And as alignment becomes a more important issue, I expect the clouds will be asked to build robust KYC and attest to it. This makes the risk:reward ratio skewed. I don’t want to be responsible when the USG says a cloud allowed a bad actor to do something bad because of poor KYC.
4. Models are complicated. The big open question is how much of the revenue being generated by them today is because of tokenmaxxing and poor model behavior. If it’s a lot, then the annualized revenues will diminish meaningfully even as token consumption inflects upwards. This is the big economic question at this layer.
5. Harnesses are where the action is and why I started @8090solutions two years ago. In a nutshell, the harness helps enterprises owns their proprietary context (what Alex Karp calls their ‘alpha’). This is an enterprise’s data, workflows, evals, and business rules. A harness that gives this to an enterprise is what creates very low model-agnostic switching costs, which further reinforces my views of #4 above.
6. Applications will be another long term winner along with harnesses. This is where the differentiation between “off the shelf” and “custom time and materials” melts away. Every company, with the right harness, can now imbue their alpha into the software that runs their company. I expect this to mean that “off the shelf” is largely replaced with custom software creating a huge opportunity to write these solutions for companies. Build once and sell repeatedly is a laggard GTM motion for a SaaS world that isn’t needed here. Think custom by design, alpha embedded, proprietary by nature.
Fin.
Good luck to all the players!
Cut some more fat out of the portfolio today. Been incrementally doing so over the past two weeks. Price-action forces you to do things you don't want to sometimes, in order to protect capital and the equity curve. On the bright side, historically speaking, when I capitulate on several positions at once, it tends to mark an interim bottom. I'm okay with that, though.
The truth about markets is that pick your poison based on your style. For the short-term traders prioritizing income-generation, they generally A) sell into strength, and in a trending market they leave potential compounded gains on the table. For the position traders & investors prioritizing longer-term compounding, they generally B) sell into weakness, after an extended holding period, when stocks begin to break down, and they risk forfeiting the violent rebound/reversal.
Usually, corrections are just that. Corrections. They have a stopping point (-5% or -10%) before they reverse. But, a correction and the beginning of a bear market or a crash look very similar technically speaking. So, as a position trader who sells into weakness by principle, risk is often managed at the lows as a consequence.
Don't misunderstand my point. I'm not saying this is going to evolve into a crash or a bear market. The point is that, my intention is always to mediate exposure into weakness in order to avert a potential larger drawdown. This is what saved my portfolio in 2022, and I don't preserve capital by being a bystander when markets are unwinding violently.
Guessing tops or guessing bottoms is not where I excel, nor where I make my gains. No one can do that consistently anyway. I make my gains by catching the meat of the move, in the middle.
Once again Warsh's beef with forward guidance is proved correct. Waller's speech yesterday, in his attempt to defy the Chairman's preferences, couldn't have been more poorly timed and is likely to have marked the top in rates. It's not that Warsh has a problem with communication, it's that he has a problem with the Fed's lack of adequate forecasting tools and thus their susceptibility to communicate wrong things at the wrong time, which is demonstrated on a near weekly basis at this point.
Too many people are directionless, giving room for many forms of “ the answer” to their problems.
Go to the gym.
Don’t go to the gym.
Only do compound exercises.
Focus on HRV.
Only walk but with a vest.
Must sleep 8 hours.
Must not oversleep.
Must not under sleep.
No meat.
All meat.
All veg.
All farm to table.
Organic is a scam.
No alcohol.
No sugar.
Natural sugar only.
No Rx drugs.
Yes Rx drugs.
Yes peptides.
No peptides.
No HRT.
Yes HRT.
At some point, we will all realize that none of these are the answer. You are looking to fill a hole because your current life has made you an NPC playing someone else’s game by their rules. It’s their game, not yours that is making you unhappy.
Find your game and go play it.
You’ll probably be happy as a result, do a bit of everything from the list above and will end up living to whatever you’re supposed to - very, very happily.